NIFTY TOPS 22,500 AS GLOBAL RECOVERY FUEL GAINS; BAJAJ TWINS CLIMB

Domestic stock indices saw minor gains on Monday, buoyed by receding fears of a US government shutdown and anticipation of the US Federal Reserve`s upcoming policy review. The Nifty closed just above 22,500, with pharma and healthcare sectors showing strong performance. After a higher opening driven by positive global market trends, indices experienced some profit-taking. The market`s upward movement was supported by recovering global markets and favorable domestic economic data.

The S&P BSE Sensex advanced 341.04 points or 0.46% to 74,169.95. The Nifty 50 index added 111.55 points or 0.50% to 22,508.75.

Bajaj Finserv (up 3.59%), Bajaj Finance (up 1.91%) and ICICI Bank (up 1.45%) supported the indices.

In the broader market, the S&P BSE Mid-Cap index advanced 0.77% and the S&P BSE Small-Cap index shed 0.02%.

The market breadth was weak. On the BSE, 1605 shares rose and 2507 shares fell. A total of 129 shares were unchanged.

The NSE`s India VIX, a gauge of the market`s expectation of volatility over the near term, added 1.01% to 13.42.

Economy:

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), on Monday, lowered India`s FY26 growth forecast to 6.4% from 6.9%, citing persistent uncertainty. The 38-member OECD also revised India`s FY27 growth forecast downward to 6.6% from 6.8%. However, the government can take comfort in the projected increase from 6.3% growth in the current fiscal year to 6.4%. India is projected to remain the fastest-growing major economy over the next two years.

India`s trade deficit narrowed sharply to $14.05 billion in February, down from $22.9 billion in January, mainly due to a sharp decline in imports. This marks the lowest deficit since August 2021. Merchandise exports stood at $36.91 billion in February against $36.43 billion in January, while imports were lower at $50.96 billion compared with $59.42 billion in the month prior. Services exports in February were estimated at $35.03 billion and imports at $16.55 billion against $38.55 billion and $18.22 billion, respectively, in January.

India`s wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation rose to 2.38% (provisional) in February, 2025, primarily due to an increase in prices of manufactured food products, food articles, other manufacturing, non-food articles, and textiles, etc. Data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry showed on Monday. This is higher than the WPI rate in January, which stood at 2.31%.

Numbers to Track:

The yield on India`s 10-year benchmark federal paper advanced 1.66% to 6.801 compared with the previous close of 6.690.

In the foreign exchange market, the rupee edged higher against the dollar. The partially convertible rupee was hovering at 86.8150, compared with its close of 87.0550 during the previous trading session.

MCX Gold futures for the 4 April 2025 settlement rose 0.06% to Rs 88,042.

The US Dollar index (DXY), which tracks the greenback`s value against a basket of currencies, was down 0.21% to 103.50.

The United States 10-year bond yield slipped 0.49% to 4.287.

In the commodities market, Brent crude for May 2025 settlement gained 67 cents or 0.95% to $71.25 a barrel.

Global Markets:

The US Dow Jones index futures were currently down by 111 points, signalling a negative opening for US stocks today. Market sentiment remains fragile amid persistent concerns over US trade tariffs and slowing economic growth. Investors are also bracing for a series of central bank meetings this week, particularly from the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.

European markets advanced on Monday as investors look towards a historic deal on debt in Germany, fuelling hopes for a boost to Europe�s economic fortunes.

Friedrich Merz, the frontrunner to become Germany�s next chancellor, struck an agreement with the Greens on Friday to significantly expand state borrowing for defense and infrastructure investments. The deal, backed by Merz�s conservatives and the Social Democrats, marks one of the most significant political shifts in Germany since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989.

Asian stocks edged higher on Monday, buoyed by optimism over China`s economy after Beijing introduced targeted measures to boost spending. However, lingering fears of a US-led trade war kept gains in check.

China`s retail sales rose by 4.0% in the January-February period from a year ago, compared with the 3.7% year-on-year growth in December. The country`s industrial production climbed 5.9% in the first two months of the year from a year ago, slower than the 6.2% growth in December. Its fixed asset investment, reported on a year-to-date basis, rose by 4.1%, beating the 3.2% increase last year.

The data came shortly after Chinese policymakers over the weekend unveiled an action plan to boost consumption, a top policy priority for Beijing. The plan said the government will work to increase income for both urban and rural residents, while also taking measures to boost employment. It pledged to expand trade-in programs for home appliances and cars while vowing to stabilize the nation�s stock and property market, which affects consumer confidence.

After a bruising market correction, US stock indices bounced back on Friday, powered by bargain hunting in beaten-down tech stocks. The S&P 500 surged 2.1%, the NASDAQ jumped 2.6%, and the Dow Jones gained 1.7%. Optimism increased that the U.S. government would avert a costly shutdown. This optimism stemmed from Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer`s support for a Republican stop-gap funding bill, significantly reducing the risk of a shutdown.

The University of Michigan�s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 57.9 in March�its lowest since November 2022�down from 64.7 in February. The decline reflects growing uncertainty over tariffs and economic stability.

Stocks in Spotlight:

Indusind Bank rose 0.72% after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reassured the private lender`s financial stability. The RBI`s statement, addressing recent market concern, affirmed that IndusInd Bank is "well-capitalised" and maintains a "satisfactory" financial position.

Tata Motors rose 0.84% after the company announced that it will increase the prices upto 2% across its commercial vehicle range, effective from 1st April 2025.

Maruti Suzuki India rose 0.24% after the company announced that it will increase the prices of its cars by 4%, effective from April 2025, due to rising input cost and operational expenses.

Ola Electric Mobility dropped 7% after the company disclosed that an insolvency petition had been filed against its wholly-owned subsidiary, Ola Electric Technologies, by Rosmerta Digital Services. The petition alleges payment defaults for services rendered and seeks the initiation of a Corporate Insolvency Resolution Process (CIRP).

LTIMindtree dropped 2.36% after the media reported that Citigroup plans to drastically reduce its reliance on external IT contractors.

Indusind Bank rose 0.72%. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reassured the private lender`s financial stability. The RBI`s statement, addressing recent market concern, affirmed that IndusInd Bank is "well-capitalized" and maintains a "satisfactory" financial position.

Lupin added 0.92%. The pharma major announced that it has received tentative approval from the United States Food and Drug Administration (U.S. FDA) for its abbreviated new drug application (ANDA) for Amifampridine Tablets, 10 mg.

RMC Switchgears hit an upper circuit of 5% after the firm received a letter of acceptance worth Rs 320 crore from the Rajasthan Govt for a 50 MW rooftop solar system installation across state buildings in Jaipur and Dausa.

Transformers and Rectifiers (India) gained 4.12% after the company announced that it has secured orders amounting to Rs 726 crore from Gujarat Energy Transmission Corporation (GETCL).

Hindustan Construction Company rose 0.8%. The company announced that its joint venture with Tata Projects (TPL) has won a contract worth Rs 2,191 crore from Madhya Pradesh Metro Rail Corporation (MPMRCL).

Maharashtra Seamless rose 1.47% after the company announced that it has received an order valued at approximately Rs 298 crore for the supply of seamless pipes in the oil and gas sector.

Garware Technical Fibres rose 1.42% after the company announced that it has incorporated a wholly owned subsidiary (WOS) in the name of Garware Technical Fibres UK (GTFL UK) to carry out the technical textile business in the United Kingdom.

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