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Alembic Pharmaceuticals Ltd>
  • CMP : 1,083.5 Chg : 98.45 (9.99%)
  • Target : 530.0 (-4.50%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

08 May 2023

Muted numbers; Cautious outlook with overheads recalibration…

About The Stock

Alembic Pharma operates in international generics (US:28% & exUS: 15% in FY23), domestic branded (35% in FY23) and API (21% in FY23). Domestic business has 1.5% of market share of IPM with three brands in the top 300. Going ahead, emphasis is on the specialty segment

Q4FY23 Results

Revenue impacted, margins still below par.

• Revenues de-grew 0.7% YoY at ₹ 1,406 crore.

• EBITDA grew 32.3% YoY to ₹ 211.8 crore whereas margins showed an improvement of 375 bps YoY to 15.1%.

• Adjusted PAT came at ₹ 152.2 crore

What should Investors do?

Alembic’s share price has de-grown at 13.06% CAGR over the past three years.

• We maintain HOLD as the company continues to recalibrate investments and R&D amid persistent US pricing pressure and the overheads pertaining to the newly inducted US focused plants start hitting the P&L. We also keep tab on consistency in India formulations performance.

Target Price and Valuation

Valued at ₹ 530 i.e. 24x P/E on FY25E EPS of ₹ 22.1

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Commercialisation of international formulation plants F2 (oncology injectable), F3 (general injectable & ophthalmic) & F4 (general oral solids) in the backdrop of impending expense hit (~ ₹ 300 crore per annum at least)
  • Performance of the US oral solid (OSD) generics, which will continue to weigh as 70-75% of USFDA approved products are OSDs
  • Consistency of performance in Indian branded formulations especially from the specialty group, which comprises ~50-55% of branded formulations
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from Alembic, we like Ajanta Pharma.

• Ajanta Pharma is a focused player in branded with focus on launching maximum number of first time launches with new drug delivery system

• BUY with a target price of ₹ 1520

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR_(FY17-22) FY23 FY24E FY25E 2 year CAGR_(FY23-25E)
Revenues 4,605.7 5,393.1 5,305.8 11.1 5,652.6 6,240.9 6,865.0 10.2
EBITDA 1,223.0 1,536.1 874.2 7.3 708.4 918.2 1,164.9 28.2
EBITDA margins (%) 26.6 28.5 16.5 - 12.5 14.7 17.0 -
Net Profit 872.8 1,233.9 545.7 6.4 342.0 277.5 435.0 12.8
EPS (|) 44.3 62.6 27.7 - 17.4 14.1 22.1 -
PE (x) 13.2 8.9 20.0 - 32.0 39.4 25.1 -
EV to EBITDA (x) 9.9 6.9 12.6 - 15.6 11.5 8.7 -
RoCE (%) 21.0 25.1 10.6 - 8.6 8.0 11.6 -
RoNW (%) 27.1 24.1 10.4 - 7.8 6.2 9.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q4FY23 Results: Revenues impacted, margins still below par

• Revenues de-grew 0.7% YoY at | 1,406 crore. The performance was led by the higher India branded business and API business. The performance of US generics remained sluggish during the quarter. On the operational front, EBITDA grew 32.3% YoY to | 211.8 crore whereas margins showed an improvement of 375 bps YoY to 15.1%. Adjusted PAT came at | 152.2 crore. India business sales increased 9.1% to | 409 crore supported by both specialty segment (+13% YoY) and better performance from its top therapies. US generics was down 36.4% YoY to | 354 crore. RoW revenues increased 32.4% to | 249 crore. API sales increased 41% to | 313 crore. Growth was driven on account of high offtake and better product mix

• India branded business continues to perform well on the back of growth in specialty segment and acute business (+23% YoY). In the US, the scenario remains challenging. Demand outlook for RoW business remains strong as product registrations as well as dossier extension to new markets would accelerate growth. However, muted EBITDA guidance of ~15% still suggests that the revenue generation and GPM are not enough to cover the fixed overheads of new plants and R&D expenses.

Q4FY23 earnings conference call highlights: Business performance:

• India business: The performance was led by both specialty (up 13%) and acute segments (up 23%) YoY. Specialty segment growth was supported by therapies like gynaecology, anti-diabetic & ophthalmology & Ortho during the period. Animal Health business grew 15% YoY. Ex of Azithral growth of India business came at 12%.

• International business: The performance of US generics remained sluggish during the quarter. It was impacted 36.4% YoY to | 354 crore, the scenario remains challenging on account of excess supplies. RoW which includes – Europe, Canada, Australia, Brazil and South Africa showed a growth of 32.4% on YoY basis in Q4FY23. The management remains confident about the demand outlook from these regions with launches from new facilities to drive further growth.

• API business: Robust growth of ~41% YoY during the quarter. Jump in the performance was mainly on account of better product mix. The management has guided for steady growth in coming years with timely execution of strong order book.

Other key highlights:

• The company received PLI scheme benefit of ₹ 21 crore from the Indian government.

• Price erosion in US markets still remains a concern.

• R&D expense incurred during the quarter was ₹ 136 crore which included one-time non cash write off of 11 crore.

• Focus remains to optimise R&D costs for oral solid dosages.

• During the quarter it successfully commercialised plant F2 (oncology injectables) & F3 (general injectables ophthalmic).

• It launched 6 products in Q4FY23 and plans to launch ~10 in Q1FY24 and ~20 in FY24.

• The company intends to invest in solar power to bring down the energy costs.

• Margins to remain under pressure and sustain at ~15% due to commercialisation of new plants.

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Siddhant Khandekar -Inter CA, Kushal Shah -CFA L1, CFP, Utkarsh Jain -MBA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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