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  • CMP : 172.5 Chg : -1.43 (-0.82%)
  • Target : 80.0 (5.26%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

12 Aug 2022

Subdued margin performance continues...

About The Stock

Ashoka Buildcon Ltd (ABL) is primarily engaged in the construction of roads and bridges having an integrated portfolio of EPC, BOT and HAM projects. Besides roads construction, ABL also has established presence across varied infra verticals such as Power Transmission, Railways, City Gas Distribution.

  • Diversified order book, decent execution capabilities, expected pick-up in execution, and focus on debt reduction and working capital are expected to outline ABL’s performance over the next few years
Q1FY23 Results:

ABL reported a mixed operational performance during Q1FY23

  • Standalone revenue improved 46.2% YoY to ₹ 1,479 crore aided by decent order book position, pick-up in execution and receipt of appointed date in most of its older projects.
  • EBITDA margin moderated to 9.8% (down 208 bps YoY) impacted by change in project mix and rise in commodity prices. Effectively, operating profit at ₹ 144.6 crore, was up 20.6% YoY.
  • PAT growth was modest at 3% YoY (to ₹ 104.3 crore) impacted by lower other income and higher finance cost
What should Investors do?

ABL’s share price de-grew 40% over the past five years (from ~₹ 127 in August 2017 to ~₹ 76 in August 2022).

  • We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock as a) lowering of revenue guidance, b) moderation in margins and c) bagging projects at lower margin at multiple geographies/sectors would remain key overhang going forward.
Target Price and Valuation

We value ABL at ₹ 80/share.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Incremental inflows key to ensure growth; 14.8% revenue CAGR on standalone level likely over FY22-24E with margins at ~10%
  • Planned monetisation of HAM/Annuity assets
Alternate Stock Idea

Besides ABL, we like HG Infra Engineering in the EPC space.

  • Strong execution and healthy order book
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 765/share

Key Financial Summary

| crore FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 3,820.6 3,937.4 3,817.5 4,591.5 17.9 5,409.4 6,053.2 14.8
EBITDA 515.2 585.6 519.5 502.5 15.7 541.0 603.5 9.6
EBITDA Margin (%) 13.5 14.9 13.6 10.9 - 10.0 10.0 -
PAT 286.2 387.1 408.1 -308.6
EPS (|) 10.2 13.8 14.5 -11.0 - 13.5 14.7 -
P/E (x) 7.5 5.5 5.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.6 3.9 4.7 5.1 - 5.3 4.7 -
RoNW (%) 12.9 14.9 13.6
RoCE (%) 18.8 20.8 18.4 19.7 - 15.6 15.4 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key business highlight and outlook

Order book healthy; guidance lowered for topline/margin

ABL’s order book (OB) at the end of Q1 FY23 stood at | 14,779.9 crore spread across roads - HAM (| 3,062.5 crore), roads - EPC (| 5,866.5 crore), Power T&D and others (| 2,355.5 crore), buildings-EPC (| 2,302 crore), railways (| 1,142.5 crore), and CGD (| 50.9 crore) segments. Also, this OB excludes projects worth | 575.2 crore received post June’22. The order book as on date, thus, stands at | 15,355 crore, 3x book to TTM bill. Going forward, the management has guided for order inflows of | 10,000+ crore during FY23 respectively (secured | 8,714 crore during FY22) with ~75-80% order inflows likely from roads segments. On the execution front, ABL has lowered their revenue growth target (for FY23 standalone business) to 15-20% (from 20-25% earlier) on YoY basis. Furthermore, the company expects moderation in operating margin to 9-10% (vs guidance of 11-12% earlier) mainly due to rise in input cost, change in project mix, and bagging of projects at lower margin to enter newer geographies/sectors. We bake ~10% operating margin for FY23, FY24.

 Equity infusion and asset monetisation update

Out of the total equity requirement of | 1,337 crore, ABL has infused | 1,107 crore (including Price Index Multiple) till June 30, 2022 in the 11 HAM projects and expects balance amount to infuse over next two years. Asset sale of 5 SPVs (of Ashoka Concessions Ltd) for aggregate consideration of | 1,337 crore, and proceed of asset sale towards SBI Macquarie exit augurs well for the company. Monetization of pending assets will be the key for leverage ahead.

Key conference call takeaways

  • Revenue contribution: During Q1 FY23, revenue from roads segment stood at | 1,050 crore, followed by Railways (| 153 crore), Power (| 160 crore), CGD (| 13 crore) and others (~| 50 crore) verticals. For like-to-like comparison, revenue from roads segment stood at | 830 crore during Q1 FY22, followed by Railways (| 99 crore), Power (| 41 crore), CGD (| 6 crore) and others (~| 25 crore) verticals. Further, the company expects execution in the buildings sector to pick-up from Q3 FY23 onwards. Also, ABL expects Roads - HAM projects to contribute ~| 2,000 crore to overall topline during FY23.
  • Margin: The volatility in commodity prices and change in project mix has impacted the overall margin performance during Q1 FY23. Generally, ABL draws 13% margin in HAM projects, and 10-11% in EPC jobs. Also, the company has bagged some projects at lower margin to enter newer geographies/sectors. With these, the company expects moderation in operating margin to ~ 9-10%. Also, as per the management, 80% of contracts have price escalation clause while balance 20% are fixed price contracts (mainly international projects)
  • Order book position: Executable order book position currently stands at ~| 13,500-14,000 crore and expects balance ~| 2000 crore worth of projects to come under execution by FY23-end.
  • Update on ACL Projects: ABL has completed an asset sale of Ashoka Concessions Ltd of 5 SPVs by entering into share purchase agreement (SPA) with Galaxy Investments II (KKR owned entity) for aggregate consideration of | 1,337 crore. Currently, the company has received approvals from 3 lenders and some-requisite permissions from NHAI, and is in the process of getting pending approvals. Sale of equity expected to be completed by September 30, 2022 subject to receipt of necessary approvals from concerned lenders and NHAI. The proceeds of the sale of ACL assets is likely to facilitate the payment of | 1,200 crore to SBI Macquarie, in-turn, aid investors to exit the company fully. Further, the consolidated debt is likely to reduce by | 3,014.2 crore.
  • Monetization of Assets: ABL has executed SPA with National Investment and Infrastructure Fund Ltd (NIIF) for sale of 100% equity of Chennai ORR project for aggregate financial consideration of | 686 crore. Out of the total amount, the company is expected to receive | 450 crore (loan repayment: | 250 crore, equity stake-50%: | 200 crore). The transaction is likely to get concluded by September 30, 2022. Additionally, the company is in advanced stage of discussion for sale of equity (72% stake) for Jaora-Nayagaon and expects deal to conclude soon. Also, the company is evaluating exit options like Infra InVIT or Sale to Investors for its HAM projects. The proceed from sale of assets is likely to be used for working capital, debt reduction, and dividend distribution purpose.
  • Debt: ABL’s consolidated debt has increased from | 6,699.8 crore (as of FY22-end) to | 7,127.2 crore (as of FY22-end) Of this, | 862 crore is standalone debt (| 187.6 crore - equipment loan, | 674.4 crore - WC loan), | 250 crore is NCDs, and | 6,015.2 crore is project debt. Out of these, Project debt of 5 BOT assets amounting to | 3,014.2 crore likely to get reduced with sale of assets. Cash and Cash balance at the end of Q1 FY23 stood at | 829 crore. The management has indicated towards delays in collection mainly in roads projects which has resulted into increase in debt level. However, some of dues have been collected post Q1 FY23 which has now normalized borrowings to some extent. Going forward, the management expects standalone debt to stabilize at ~| 600 crore by Q2 FY23-end. Consolidated debt is likely to remain at an elevated level of | 7,000+ crore (without considering proceed from asset sale) mainly required to fund its HAM projects.
  • Impact of Solar module price rise: ABL was under discussions with its clients, NTPC and MNRE, w.r.t. the increase in module prices for solar projects. Currently, the company is going ahead with the project for EPC work and supply of modules are now stands at the client’s scope.
  • Capex: ABL has incurred capex of ~| 50 crore during Q1 FY23 and expected to incur | 125-150 crore of overall capex during FY23.

We highlight asset sale of Ashoka Concessions Ltd of 5 SPVs to KKR owned entity will ensure payment of SBI-Macquarie liability at | 1,200 crore without any liquidity strain. However, a) lowering of revenue guidance, b) moderation in margins and c) bagging of projects at lower margin at multiple geographies/sectors to remain key overhang going forward. We maintain HOLD rating on the stock with an SoTP-based target price of | 80/share (maintain modest EV/EBITDA target multiple for standalone at 3x).

Disclaimer

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pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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