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NRI
Asian Paints Ltd>
  • CMP : 3,277.1 Chg : 32.30 (1.0%)
  • Target : 3,245.0 (15.07%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

28 Jun 2022

Top bets in Consumer Discretionary Space

About The Stock

Asian Paints (APL) is India’s largest decorative paint company with ~50% value market share. The company derives ~98% revenue from the paints business while 2% business comes from the home improvement business (kitchen and bathroom fittings). 

Asian Paints (APL) is India’s largest decorative paint company with ~ 50%

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value market share. The company derives ~98% revenue from the paints business while 2% business comes from the home improvement business (kitchen and bathroom fittings).

What should Investors do?

We like Asian paints for:

  • Strong distribution network of 70,000 dealers, 2x more than the No. 2 player
  • Repainting represents ~80% of total decorative paint demand. Gradual reduction in repainting cycle would drive future paint demand. Increased focus on the ‘water proofing & building chemical’ category will continue to drive revenue growth for Asian Paints. Water proofing & building chemical industry is pegged at ₹ 6000 crore vs. ₹ 1.5 lakh crore in China

We model revenue, earnings CAGR of ~14%, ~28%, respectively, in FY22-24E supported by the company’s aggressive product launches and continuous expansion in the tier III, IV cities. Further moderation of raw material prices will provide rooms for earnings upgrade. At the CMP of ₹ 2820 (post ~21% price correction from its peak) Asian paints is trading at ~54x FY24E earnings. We value the stock at 62x FY24E EPS to arrive at revised target price of ₹ 3265/Share. We upgrade our rating from HOLD to BUY.

Margin recovery key monitorable…

The I-direct consumer discretionary universe is likely to report flattish EBITDA margin in FY23E due to a delay in price hikes and change in product mix with recovery kicking in from FY24E. After sharp price hikes (of ~20%) in FY22, coverage companies are likely to go slow on further price hikes in FY23 in fear of any demand destruction and increased risk of down-trading. However, the topline is likely to see ~14% CAGR over FY22-24E (I-direct consumer discretionary universe) led by 8% volume growth. We believe higher government capex, real estate recovery and favourable demographics of India will help drive volume growth for paints, electrical consumer durables and pipes companies, going forward. Under our coverage universe, we like Asian Paints and Havells India. We like Asian Paints for its market leadership position in the decorative paints and high earnings growth supported by recovery in EBITDA margin. We also like Havells considering strong growth of its AC and cable & wire business along with margin recovery on improved product mix & cooling metal prices.

Paint, adhesive segment

We believe coverage paint & adhesive companies are likely to report revenue CAGR of 13% over FY22-24E supported by volume growth of ~7-9%. Going forward, we build in normalised EBITDA margin (i.e. pre-Covid level) for paint companies considering growing competitive intensity and input cost pressure. EBITDA margin is likely to recover to its pre-Covid level of ~20% only by FY24E. We believe existing paint companies will have to sacrifice profitability in order to maintain market share. Grasim has announced major capex for its paint division. We believe it can become a meaningful player in paint industry over the long term on the back of its established pan India builder material dealer networks.

Given the sharp stock price correction (~21% from its peak), we revise our rating on market leader Asian Paints to BUY. The company is likely to report strong earning CAGR (of ~28%) supported by recovery in EBITDA margin.         

Electrical Consumer Durables

After a steep price hike (of ~18%) in FY22, ECD players have slowed down on further price hikes, as they focus to liquidate old inventories. Companies will have to take further price hike of ~7-10% to pass on increased input costs arising due to change in energy norms. Further, they are sensing a possible demand destruction and increased down trading in case of incremental price hikes. We believe while recent price correction in metals (~20% price correction in copper) provides some relief, the same is likely to get offset by low operating leverage and adverse product mix. Hence we build in a flattish EBITDA margin for our coverage universe on YoY basis in FY23E. On the topline front, AC companies are likely to report strong revenue growth of ~30% YoY in FY23E on a favourable base. We are also positive on the cable & wire segment given the sharp dip in copper prices and increased government capex. Havells India is the major player in both segments. At the CMP, we revise our rating from HOLD to BUY, valuing the company at 51xFY24E EPS, considering high growth opportunities.       

Plastic Piping

We build in volume CAGR of ~15% over FY22-24E attributable to favourable base and higher government capex on its flagship schemes such as Jal Jeevan Mission. The PVC prices (key raw material) were up by ~7% QoQ in Q1FY23, however is ~17% below its peak in Q3FY22. We believe EBITDA margin of coverage companies are likely to be better than its pre-Covid level margin supported by subsiding raw material prices on the back of easing supply concerns, better operating leverage and improved product mix

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