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Astral Ltd>
  • CMP : 1,278.9 Chg : -10.0 (-0.78%)
  • Target : 2,100.0 (5.74%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

16 Aug 2022

Inventory loss, one-off expenses drag margin…

About The Stock

Astral is the leader in the CPVC piping segment and expanding into the other building material business such as adhesive, paints and sanitary ware.

  • Astral is the third largest piping company with a value market share of 9%. In FY22, Piping, adhesive contributed 77%, 23%, respectively, to its topline
  • Healthy b/s reflected in strong return ratios (RoE: 21%, RoCE: ~27%)
Q1FY23 Results

Strong revenue growth; Inventory loss dragged EBITDA margins.

  • Consolidated revenue up 73% YoY to ₹ 1213 crore on a favourable base and consolidation of paint business. Piping and adhesive & paints segments growth came in at 74% & 72% YoY to ₹ 876 core & ₹ 337 crore, respectively
  • EBITDA margin declined 433 bps YoY to 14.2%, mainly due to inventory losses amid volatile PVC prices
  • PAT up 25% YoY to ₹ 94 crore tracking sales growth in Q1
What should Investors do?

Astral’s share price has grown by ~5x over the past five years (from ~₹ 392 in August 2017 to ~₹ 1986 levels in August 2022).

  • We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value Astral at ₹ 2100 i.e. 58x P/E on FY24E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Pick-up in housing sales and construction activities will augment growth in both pipes and adhesives
  • Capacity addition, launch of new products (water tank, valve) and diversification in the sanitary ware and paint business to drive overall revenue CAGR of 22% in FY22-24E
  • Price hike, improved product mix (launch of high margin valve business) will help in recovery in EBITDA margin from FY24E onwards
Alternate Stock Idea

We like Supreme Industries in our coverage universe.

  • Supreme is market leader in plastic piping segment with ~15% market share. Robust b/s with average RoE, RoCE of 24%, 27%, respectively
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 2175

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 2,507.3 2,577.9 3,176.3 4,394.0 0.2 5,625.2 6,568.8 0.2
EBITDA 384.9 442.9 644.5 755.3 0.2 867.3 1,138.4 0.2
EBITDA Margin (%) 15.4 17.2 20.3 17.2 - 15.4 17.3 -
Net Profit 197.3 249.6 408.2 490.4 0.3 517.5 721.6 0.2
EPS (|) 13.1 16.6 20.3 24.4 - 25.8 35.9 -
P/E(x) 151.6 119.9 97.7 81.4 - 77.1 55.3 -
Price/book value (x) 23.4 19.9 21.0 17.1 - 15.1 12.8 -
Mcap/sales (x) 15.9 15.5 12.6 9.1 - 7.1 6.1 -
RoE (%) 15.4 16.6 21.5 21.0 - 19.6 23.1 -
RoCE (%) 20.7 20.5 27.5 26.6 - 25.5 29.3 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q1FY23 Results: Strong topline growth on favourable base; inventory losses & one off expenses drag margin

  • Astral’s consolidated revenue increased ~73% YoY to | 1213 crore in Q1FY23 on a favourable base and ramp up of new product sales. Piping revenues were up 74% YoY led by volume growth of 49%. Adhesive & paint revenues were up 72% YoY to | 337 crore supported by consolidation of paint business from Q1FY23. The company’s newly acquired ‘Gem Paints’ reported revenue of | 55 crore in Q1FY23
  • On a three-year basis, pipe revenue grew at a CAGR of ~27% led by volume CAGR of ~5%. The adhesive segment grew at 23% CAGR supported by launches of new products and addition of dealer networks in new geographies
  • The quarter witnessed significant volatility in the PVC prices, which led to inventory losses to the tune of | 25 crore. As a result, gross margin declined sharply by 717 bps YoY (30 bps QoQ). Lower gross margins and higher employee costs (up 20% QoQ) led to fall in EBITDA margin by 433 bps YoY (143 bps QoQ) to 14.2%
  • PAT up 25% YoY to ~| 94 crore tracking higher sales in Q1

Q1FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Demand Outlook:
    • To continue its growth trajectory, Astral is planning to focus on its expansion in the East region, increase its network in areas where it does not have a presence and adding more distributors and dealers. The company is also planning on opening more regional warehouses and depots and also adding more manufacturing locations and adding newer products in its portfolio
    • The management is aiming to double its topline in the next five years
    • The company has completed its expansion in the east region and rolled out products such as water tanks and PVC pipes in the region. The company is awaiting necessary approvals to launch the rest of its products in the east
    • Astral has acquired a plant in Jamnagar, Gujarat to produce faucets. The company has already started the process of appointing distributors and dealers for faucet, sanitary care and is expecting revenue to pick up from this division from Q3FY23 onwards
    • The company will be conducting trial productions in Q4FY23 for its adhesives plant
    • At the end of Q1FY23, the pipes capacity is at 2,82,338 MT and the management expects this capacity to grow by ~18,000 MT by the end of FY23
    • Astral has now defined its businesses in two segments viz. plumbing & paints and adhesives. Plumbing includes pipes, fittings, water tanks, faucets and sanitary ware
  • Margins:
    • Astral’s margins in the pipe segment have remained under pressure due to volatility in polymer prices and inventory losses. Polymer prices have been undergoing significant correction. In such a scenario, dealers and distributors keep low inventories
    • The company also saw various one-off expenditure in Q1FY23 such as inventory losses amounting to ~| 25 crore, forex loss of ~| 11.7 crore due to higher dependency on imports for CPVC. The company also witnessed higher employee expenses and higher costs of launching new products. The management expects inventory losses to continue in Q2FY23 as well
    • Margins in the adhesive segment also remained under pressure due to higher chemical prices
    • EBITDA margin of Gem Paints in Q1FY23 came in at ~15%
  • Capex:
    • The company has planned a capex of ~| 200 crore in FY23
    • For its UK subsidiary, the company is unable to fulfil the demand for some of its products and is working on some capex allocation at the plant in UK
Variance Analysis
  Q1FY23 Q1FY23E Q1FY22 YoY (%) Q4FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 1,212.9 1,166.6 700.1 73.2 1,390.6 -12.8   Favourable base and consolidation of new business helped drive revenue growth for the company
Other Income 11.4 7.0 4.3 165.1 16.4 -30.5    
Raw Material Exp 825.2 781.6 426.5 93.5 943.2 -12.5   Volatile PVC prices led to inventory loss of | 25 crore in Q1, resulting  sharp fall in gross margin by 717 bps YoY
Cost of traded goods 9.9 11.7 5.3 86.8 9.9 0.0    
Employee Exp 76.8 65.3 58.1 32.2 64.1 19.8   Employee addition into different product categories drove employee cost in Q1
Other expenditure 129.3 133.0 80.8 60.0 156.6 -17.4    
EBITDA 171.7 175.0 129.4 32.7 216.8 -20.8    
EBITDA Margin (%) 14.2 15.0 18.5 -433 bps 15.6 -143 bps   Decline in EBITDA margin is mainly due to lower gross margins and higher employee costs
Depreciation 43.3 32.7 30.6 41.5 32.8 32.0    
Interest 14.4 1.2 4.6 213.0 5.2 176.9    
PBT 125.4 148.1 98.5 27.3 195.2 -35.8    
Total Tax 31.6 36.5 23.4 35.0 49.2 -35.8    
Profit from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 NM -1.9 NM    
PAT 93.8 111.6 75.1 24.9 144.1 -34.9   Higher topline growth helped drive PAT in Q1
Key Metrics                
Plastic Piping 876.1 765.7 504.1 73.8 1,084.1 -19.2   Volumes were up by 49% YoY largely on a favourable base 
Paints & Adhesive 336.8 323.4 196.0 71.8 306.5 9.9   Favourable base and additional revenues from the paint business drove revenue growth in Q1FY23
*Segment revenue for Q1FY18 is not adjusted with excise/GST        
                 
 Gross margin           31.1          32.0          38.3 -717 bps          31.5 -31 bps    
 Pipe volume    36,578.0   45,576.5   24,623.0        48.55   47,211.0      (22.5)    

Financial Summary

Profit and loss statement crore

(Year end March)FY21 ()FY22 ()FY23E ()FY24E ()
Net Sales 3,176.34,394.05,625.26,568.8
YoY (%) 23.238.328.016.8
Other income 25.134.933.839.4
Total Revenue 3,201.44,428.95,658.96,608.2
Expenditure
Cons of raw material 1,947.32,896.63,779.74,299.8
Pur. of traded goods 21.631.451.159.9
Employee cost 191.0245.3308.3367.9
Other expenses 371.9465.4618.8702.9
Total expenses 2,531.83,638.74,757.95,430.4
EBITDA 644.5755.3867.31,138.4
YoY (%) 45.517.214.831.3
Interest 13.112.930.913.5
PBDT 656.5777.3870.11,164.3
Depreciation 116.5126.9174.4197.1
Profit before tax 540.0650.4695.8967.2
Total Tax 124.8158.1176.4243.7
PAT before MI 415.2492.3519.4723.5
Exc. Items -7.0-1.9-1.9-1.9
PAT 408.2490.4517.5721.6
YoY (%) 63.520.15.539.4
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key ratios crore

(Year-end March)FY19 ()FY20 ()FY21 ()FY22 ()
Per share Data
EPS 20.324.425.835.9
Cash EPS 26.130.734.445.7
Dividend per share 1.22.112.112.1
BV per share 94.4116.3131.3155.2
Profitability Ratio
EBITDA margin 20.317.215.417.3
PAT margin 12.911.29.211.0
Return Ratios
RoCE 27.526.625.529.3
RoNW 21.521.019.623.1
RoIC 39.639.528.232.7
Valuation Ratios
P/E 97.781.477.155.3
EV / EBITDA 61.252.145.935.0
Market Cap / Sales 12.69.17.16.1
Price to Book Value 21.017.115.112.8
Activity Ratios
Inventory Days 54.360.970.075.0
Debtor Days 31.822.453.055.0
Creditor Days 59.462.258.055.0
Gross Block Turnover 1.92.22.52.7
Solvency Ratio
Debt / Equity 0.00.00.10.0
Debt / EBITDA 0.10.10.20.1
Current Ratio 1.51.52.32.5
Quick Ratio 0.60.51.11.2
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Balance Sheet crore

(Year end March)FY21 ()FY22 ()FY23E ()FY24E ()
Equity Capital 20.120.120.120.1
Reserve and Surplus 1,875.72,316.52,618.33,097.7
Total Shareholders funds 1,895.72,336.62,638.43,117.8
Total Debt 53.285.1135.1155.1
Other Non Current Liabilities 122.6143.4145.4147.4
Total Liability 2,010.22,497.22,850.03,350.4
Fixed Assets
Gross Block 1,650.21,958.92,208.92,458.9
Accumulated Depreciation 592.7719.6893.91,091.0
Net Block 1,057.51,239.31,314.91,367.9
Capital WIP 56.6123.2123.2123.2
Total Fixed Assets 1,114.11,362.51,438.11,491.1
Goodwill on Consolidation 257.0256.7306.7356.7
Current Assets
Inventory 472.1733.41,078.81,349.8
Debtors 276.7269.1816.8989.8
Loans and Advances 8.20.55.15.9
Other Current Assets 43.9100.4141.2164.9
Cash 475.7641.8192.3260.1
Total Current Assets 1,276.61,745.22,234.22,770.5
Current Liabilities
Creditors 517.2748.4893.9989.8
Provisions 6.93.56.47.1
Other current liabilities 138.4138.4251.8294.1
Total Current Liabilities 662.5890.31,152.01,290.9
Net Current Assets 614.1854.91,082.11,479.6
Deferred Tax Assets 0.10.30.30.3
Total Asset 2,010.22,497.22,850.03,350.4
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Cash flow statement crore

(Year-end March)FY21 ()FY22 ()FY23E ()FY24E ()
Profit/(Loss) after taxation 408.2490.4517.5721.6
Add: Depreciation & Amortization 116.5126.9174.4197.1
Add: Interest Paid 13.112.930.913.5
C/F bef working capital chg. 537.8630.2722.8932.2
Net Increase in Current Assets 44.4-302.5-938.4-468.5
Net Increase in Current Liabilities 65.1227.8261.7138.9
Net CF from operating act 647.3555.546.1602.5
(Inc)/Dec in Goodwill on Cons -1.70.3-50.0-50.0
(Purchase)/Sale of Fixed Assets -186.6-375.3-250.0-250.0
Others 1.56.61.01.0
Net Cf from Investing Act -197.3-358.8-299.0-299.0
Pro/(Rept) of/from Loan -75.931.950.020.0
(Payment) of Div & Div Tax -24.2-42.4-242.2-242.2
Others -4.2-20.1-4.4-13.5
Net Cf from Financing Act -104.3-30.6-196.6-235.7
Net Cash flow 345.7166.1-449.567.8
Cash and Cash Equi at the beg 130.0475.7641.8192.3
Cash and Cash Equi at the end 475.7641.8192.3260.1
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Sanjay Manyal, MBA (Finance) and Hitesh Taunk, MBA (Finance) Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommend... 

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