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NRI
Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd>
  • CMP : 519.9 Chg : -3.35 (-0.64%)
  • Target : 485.0 (47.42%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

11 Nov 2022

High sugarcane availability to bring back growth…

About The Stock

Balrampur Chini (BCML) is the second largest sugar company with sugar crushing capacity of 77500 TCD, distillery capacity of 560 KLD and co-generation capacity of 175.7 MW. It will complete its distillery capex of 490 KLD and modernisation, de-bottlenecking of its sugarcane crushing capacity by December 2022, which would take its total distillery capacity to 1050 KLD (35 crore litre).

  • The company is working on replacing the existing Co-0238 sugarcane variety in its catchment area with newer varieties, which would improve sugarcane yields and recovery
Q2FY23 Results

BCML reported dismal results with 8.3% dip in revenues.

  • Sales down 8.3% with 1%, 14% dip in sugar, ethanol sales, respectively
  • BCML posted EBITDA loss of ₹ 15.9 crore due to higher cost of production
  • Consequently, the company posted a loss of ₹ 28.9 crore
What should Investors do?

BCML’s share price has doubled in the last five years (from ₹ 162 in November 2017 to ₹ 329 in November 2022).

  • We expect 39.5% distillery volume CAGR, which would boost the company’s earnings at 20.4% CAGR during FY22-24E
  • We maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value the stock at ₹ 485, valuing the business at 13x FY24 PE

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • With distillery capex, BCML would be able to increase its ethanol capacity 2x to 35 crore litre. Distillery sales are expected to witness 44.0% CAGR to ₹ 2021.2 crore in FY22-24E, which would be 33% of total revenues
  • It is undertaking modernisation and de-bottlenecking at some plants. This would lead to higher sugarcane crushing, better recoveries by FY24. We expect 11.9% revenue CAGR in FY22-24E
  • BCML would be replacing Co-0238 with newer sugarcane variety in its catchment areas, which would enhance sugarcane availability and sugar production through higher yields & better sugar recovery
Alternate Stock Idea

We also like Dwarikesh Sugar in our sugar coverage.

  • The company is one of the most efficient companies with highest sugar recovery and abundant sugarcane availability. It has increased its distillery capacity to 11 crore litre
  • We value the stock at ₹ 135/share with BUY recommendation

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials F2 FY20 FY21 5 Year CAGR (FY17 to FY22) FY22 FY23E FY24E CAGR (FY22-24E)
Total Operating Income - 4,741.3 4,811.7 6.8 4,846.0 5,197.9 6,068.9 0.1
EBITDA - 682.0 713.8 -3.9 699.7 755.6 1,082.4 0.2
EBITDA Margin % - 14.4 14.8 - 14.4 14.5 17.8 -
Net Profit - 519.4 479.8 -4.1 464.6 446.4 673.7 0.2
EPS (|) - 23.6 22.8 - 22.8 23.0 36.6 0.3
P/E - 13.9 14.4 - 14.5 14.3 9.0 -
RoNW % - 21.5 18.3 - 16.9 15.1 20.2 -
RoCE (%) - 16.1 16.4 - 15.3 14.9 22.3 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q2FY23 Results: High sugarcane availability, increase in distillery capacity to aid earnings growth in H2FY23 & FY24

  • Consolidated revenue witnessed de-growth of 8.3% to | 1113.1 crore on account of low domestic sugar sales quota as well as decline in distillery volumes

 

  • Sugar sales de-grew 1% to | 936.2 crore. The company received domestic sugar sale quota of 2.5 lakh tonnes, 6% lower compared to the corresponding period last year. Sugar realisation was up 3.2% to | 35.65/kg

 

  • The company was holding 1.19 lakh tonnes (lt) of sugar valued at | 34.82 per kg as on September 30, 2022 vs. 1.88 lt valued at | 33.01 per kg on September 30, 2021

 

  • Distillery sales declined 14% to | 229.9 crore on the back of 10.7% de-growth in ethanol volumes and 1% dip in ethanol realisation. Given the company saw a considerable decline in sugarcane crush in 2021-22 season, molasses availability was also adversely impacted resulting in lower ethanol volumes

 

  • Higher levy molasses obligation would also have resulted in lower availability of molasses for ethanol production. Blended distillery realisation was flat at | 52.41/litre

 

  • Gross margins declined 9 percentage points, mainly on account of higher cost of production given sugarcane prices were increased in 2021-22 season. Moreover, sugar recovery was also lower during the season. Most sugar companies saw higher employee spends during the quarter due to one-time spend towards wage arrears of the last three years

 

  • BCML was also adversely impacted by wage arrears. The company posted an operating loss of | 15.9 crore in Q2FY23. It posted a net loss of | 28.9 crore during the quarter

 

  • The government has allowed 6 million tonnes (MT) of exports by the industry in 2022-23 sugar season in the first tranche and is likely to allow further 3 MT of export by January-February 2023 after reassessing sugar production estimate. Industry has already contracted ~4 MT of sugar out of allowed 6 MT

 

  • BCML has received 1.98 lt of export quota and has already contracted 1.4 lt, which includes 1.05 lt of refined white sugar contracted above ~| 38/kg and 0.35 lt of raw sugar contracted at ~| 34 /kg. The company has already exchanged rest of the quota with domestic sugar sale. BCML would be able to export ~90% of the entire quota by March-2023

 

  • BCML is expected to crush 10.2-10.5 MT of sugarcane in 2022-23 season, which is ~18% higher compared to last year. The company has been able to increase 8% area under sugarcane acreage in its catchment area. Moreover, disease management, introduction of new variety is expected to result in higher sugarcane yield as well as sugar recoveries

 

  • The company would be having sufficient sugarcane crushing capacity for 11.5 MT of sugarcane. Moreover, the possibility of increasing sugarcane acreage in east UP is higher compared to western and central UP

 

  • Out of total sugarcane crushed, ~10% would be diverted to sugarcane juice route, ~18-20% would be required for ENA (under levy molasses/ENA) obligation and rest 70-72% would be diverted to B-heavy molasses. The company would be able to produce 28-30 crore litre of ethanol/ENA from molasses/juice route. Further, 5-6 crore litre of ethanol would be produced through grain based ethanol in 2022-23 season

 

  • The company is expected to produce ~23 crore and ~35 crore litre of ethanol/ENA in FY23E and FY24E, respectively. We estimate 33% of the total revenues would be contributed by the distillery segment by FY24

 

  • The company has announced an open market buyback for an amount not exceeding | 145.4 crore at a share price not exceeding | 360/share

 

  • Income tax rate for FY23E and FY24E is expected to be ~30% given the company would be utilising MAT credit in the next two years. However, cash outflow from income tax would be much lower

 

  • Sugar production in the country is expected to be 36.5 MT after diverting 4.5 MT of equivalent sugar for ethanol. Considering sugar consumption of 27.5 MT, the country would be having a surplus of 9 MT, which is likely to be exported

 

  • Global raw sugar prices are prevailing at 18-20 cents/lb while refined white sugar prices are prevailing at US$540/tonnes. These prices are better than domestic sugar prices of | 36/kg. We believe the industry would be able to easily export 9 MT during the season. This would help keep the sugar inventory at 5.5-6.0 MT as on September 2023

 

  • OMCs are looking to reach ethanol blending of 12% in 2022-23 procurement year, which would result in ~550 crore litre of ethanol procurement. Most of these quantities would be supplies by the sugar industry


  • The government has increased ethanol prices between | 1.65 per litre to 2.65 per litre for different feedstock. This would further encourage millers to set up distillery capacity in future

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