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  • CMP : 150.1 Chg : 4.77 (3.28%)
  • Target : 330.0 (15.38%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

25 Jul 2022

Delinquencies volatile; recovery in 2HFY23 watchful

About The Stock

Bandhan Bank was incorporated in 2015 as RBI granted a universal banking license. The bank has a strong presence in eastern and north-eastern India with MFI loans being its forte.

  • Total 60% of loans are from emerging enterprise business (EEB)
  • The bank has 1190 branches in 34 states, UTs & customer base of 2.7 crore
Q1FY23

Mixed quarter as expected

  • GNPA up 79 bps QoQ to 7.2%, Restructured book at ₹5800 crore
  • NII up 18.9% YoY & down 1% QoQ, NIMs contract 70 bps QoQ to 8%
  • Provision rise to ₹642 crore; PAT down 53% QoQ but up 137% YoY (low base)
  • Loan growth at 14.1% YoY and 12.9% QoQ, while deposits up 23% YoY
What should Investors do?

Uncertainties over series of events including Covid and related stress formation & recent floods in Assam has impacted performance and thus led to underperformance in stock price. Though, operating metrics have improved, recoveries from restructured pool will trigger earning & price momentum.

Target Price Valuation

We value Bandhan Bank at ~2.2x FY24E ABV and revise our target price from ₹ 365 to ₹ 330, until clarity emerges on recoveries

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • MFI regulation & Assam floods impact credit off-take; regaining traction in EEB disbursement to aid growth with a shift towards non-EEB book
  • Assam floods & restructuring book coming out of moratorium impacted collection efficiency; existing provision, recovery from Assam relief scheme to keep credit cost steady and arrest volatility in earnings
  • Steady margins, lower credit cost to offset higher opex and aid earnings. 
Alternate Stock Ideas

Besides Bandhan, in our coverage we also like HDFC Bank.

  • HDFC Bank is a leading private sector bank with consistent growth and operational performance over various cycles. The bank has maintained superior return ratios compared to its peers resulting in premium valuations
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1650

Key Financial Summary

  FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 3 year CAGR
(FY19-FY22)
FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR
(FY22-24E)
NII 4496 6324 3292 8714 25% 10366 12622 20%
PPP 3748 5447 2584 8050 29% 8667 10578 15%
PAT 1951 3024 -2066 163 -56% 3987 4886 448%
ABV (|) 92.0 91.9 63.8 97.7   122.4 151.4  
P/E  17.5 15.8 -22.3 366.3   11.6 9.4  
P/ABV 3.1 3.1 4.5 2.9   2.3 1.9  
RoE (%) 19.0 22.1 -14.6 0.8   20.7 20.9  
RoA (%) 3.9 3.9 -2.0 0.1   2.7 2.8  

 

Variance Table

  Q1FY23 Q1FY23E Q1FY22 YoY (%) Q4FY22 QoQ (%) Comments
NII 2,514 2,569 2,114 18.9 2,540 -1.0 Driven by healthy yearly loan growth
NIM (%) 8.0 7.8 8.5 -50 bps 8.7 -70 bps Yield declined due to change in asset mix
Other Income 330 780 600 -45.1 964 -65.8 Treasury income decline leads to lower other income
               
Net Total Income 2,844 3,349 2,714 4.8 3,504 -18.8  
Staff cost 635 600 500 27.0 570 11.3  
Other Operating Expenses 389 331 276 40.8 412 -5.7 C/I increased QoQ as income was under pressure
               
PPP 1,820.6 2,418.4 1,938.2 -6.1 2,521.4 -27.8  
Provision 642.4 1,446.5 1,442.0 -55.4 4.7 13,516.7 Credit cost at 2.7% of advances (annualised)
PBT 1,178.2 971.9 496.2 137.4 2,516.7 -53.2  
Tax Outgo 291.7 243.0 123.1 136.9 614.3 -52.5  
PAT 886.5 728.9 373.1 137.6 1,902.3 -53.4 PAT impacted by higher provisions
               
Key Metrics              
GNPA 6,968 6,365 6,440 8 6,380 9.2 GNPA rise due slippage from restructured book & Assam floods 
NNPA 1,749 1,659 2,458 -29 1,564 11.8  
Advances (Gross) 96,650 96,432 80,360 20.3 99,340 -2.7 YoY healthy growth driven by Non-EEB segment
Deposits 93,057 95,477 77,336 20.3 96,331 -3.4  

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