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Berger Paints India Ltd>
  • CMP : 504.2 Chg : 2.40 (0.48%)
  • Target : 600.0 (7.53%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

03 Feb 2023

Margin pressure sustains…

About The Stock

Berger Paints is the second largest paint player in India.

  • Berger derives ~80-85% of its topline from decorative paints while the rest comes from the industrial segment. It has ~13 manufacturing units in India with ~50,000 dealer network (FY22) across India
  • Strong b/s with RoCE, RoE of 26%, 22%, respectively, (five-year average)
Q3FY23 Results

New product launches and network expansion drives volume growth, usage of high cost inventory drags margin

  • Revenue increased by 5.6% YoY to ₹ 2693.6 crore in Q3FY23 driven by 6.6% volume growth in the decorative paints segment
  • Gross margin declined 198 bps YoY owing to adverse product mix and usage of high cost inventory. Increased employee expenses and lower gross margin dragged EBITDA margin down by 239 bps YoY to 13%
  • PAT down ~21% YoY to ₹ 201 crore tracking lower EBITDA margin and higher interest outgo
What should Investors do?

Berger’s share price has given ~130% return over the past five years (from ~₹ 242 in February 2018 to ~₹ 558 levels in February 2023).

  • We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We introduce FY25E estimates. We roll over our valuation on FY25E and value Berger at 48x P/E FY25E EPS and revise our target price to ₹ 600

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Repainting represents ~80% of total decorative paint demand. Gradual reduction in repainting cycle would drive future paint demand
  • Increased focus on the ‘water proofing & building chemical’ category will continue to drive revenue growth for Berger. Water proofing & building chemical industry is pegged at ₹ 6000 crore vs. ₹ 1.5 lakh crore in China
  • New product launches and expansion of manufacturing capabilities
Alternate Stock Idea

We like Supreme Industries in our coverage.

  • Supreme is market leader in the plastic piping segment with ~15% market share. Robust b/s with average RoE, RoCE of 24%, 27%, respectively
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 2600

Key Financial Summary

(| Crore) FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 Yr CAGR (22-25E)
Net Sales 6,365.8 6,817.6 8,761.8 0.1 10,535.3 11,938.4 13,194.8 0.1
EBITDA 1,061.0 1,188.0 1,331.1 0.1 1,471.8 1,695.3 1,913.3 0.1
EBITDA Margin (%) 16.7 17.4 15.2 - 14.0 14.2 14.5 -
Net Profit 656.1 719.7 833.0 0.1 912.5 1,074.6 1,223.0 0.1
EPS (|) 6.8 7.4 8.6 - 9.4 11.1 12.6 -
P/E (x) 82.6 75.3 65.1 - 59.4 50.4 44.3 -
Price/Book (x) 20.4 16.0 13.8 - 14.4 13.1 11.6 -
Mcap/Sales (x) 8.5 7.9 6.2 - 5.1 4.5 4.1 -
RoE (%) 24.7 21.3 21.2 - 24.3 26.0 26.2 -
RoCE (%) 26.6 24.9 23.3 - 26.9 29.2 30.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q3FY23 Results: Higher raw material and operating costs drag margins

  • On a high base, Berger reported a revenue growth of ~5.6% YoY to | 2693.6 led by improvement in demand traction from both Industrial and Decorative paints. Decorative paint volumes increased 6.6% YoY. The company has launched new products and expanded its distribution network in 9MFY23
  • Subsidiaries’ sales (~10% of revenue) came in at ~| 275 crore down ~7% YoY. The overseas subsidiaries sales were impacted due to disruptions in Europe and inflation headwinds in Nepal
    • On a three-year basis, revenue grew at a CAGR of ~17% led by volume CAGR of ~16%
    • The gross margin declined by 198 bps YoY due to usage of high cost inventory and adverse product mix. As a result, EBITDA margin declined by 239 bps YoY to 13% also due to higher employee expenses
    • PAT declined by ~21        % to | 201.2 crore on account of lower EBITDA and higher interest cost

Q3FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • According to the management, the company’s decorative paints business is seeing double digit volume growth since December’22. Company has gained market share in Q3FY23
  • The management expects double digit volume growth for the company in the medium to long term supported by new product launches and addition of new retail touch points
  • The company has added 8000 retail sales points and installed 4,300 colorbank machines in 9MFY23. The company aims to reach 10,000 retail sales points by FY24
  • In Q3FY23, Berger Paints launched 2 new products in the decorative paints segment
  • Demand for industrial paints continues to remain robust led by strong demand from automotive sector.
  • On the profitability front, margins in Q3 were impacted mainly due to inferior product mix
  • The company was not able to take advantage of falling raw material prices due to built-up high cost inventory. According to the management, benefit of lower raw material prices will be realized in Q4FY23 and Q1FY24
  • The company has taken further price hikes in the industrial paints segment
  • Berger’s new manufacturing facility in Sandila, Uttar Pradesh will begin commercial production from February 2023. The installed capacity at this plant is 33,000 kl per month

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Sanjay Manyal, MBA (Finance), Hitesh Taunk, MBA (Finance) and Ashwi Bhansali, MBA Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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