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Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd>
  • CMP : 304.0 Chg : -0.90 (-0.30%)
  • Target : 330.0 (6.80%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

08 Nov 2022

One-time LPG grant reduces losses…

About The Stock

Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) is a public sector refining & marketing company.

  • BPCL operates more than 19000 retail outlets across the country
  • Petrol & diesel together constitute 63% of marketing sales in FY22
Q2FY23 Results

BPCL reported higher-than-expected earnings in Q2FY23.

  • Revenue was up 26% YoY (down 7.3% QoQ) to ₹ 128332.7 crore (our estimate: ₹ 113206.7 crore)
  • GRM was above our estimates at US$16.8/bbl (our estimate: US$5.1/bbl). The company received a one-time grant of ₹ 5582 crore for under-recoveries on sale of domestic LPG. EBITDA was ₹ 1434 crore against EBITDA loss of ₹ 5865 crore in Q1FY23 (estimated EBITDA loss: ₹ 6493 crore)
  • Net loss was at ₹ 304.2 crore in Q2FY23 (estimated loss: ₹ 5755.1 crore)
What should Investors do?

BPCL’s GRM declined from elevated levels seen in Q1FY23. The company has not passed on higher crude oil costs to customers while weaker marketing profitability is likely to impact earnings in the near term.

  • We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value BPCL at ₹ 330 i.e. average of P/BV multiple: ₹ 330/share and P/E multiple: ₹ 330/share.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Stability in global refining product cracks (mainly diesel)
  • Passing on higher crude oil costs to customers
  • Consistent dividend payout
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from BPCL, in our oil & gas coverage we also like Gail.

  • Gail is India’s leading gas transmission company, which is a beneficiary of increasing gas consumption. Stable volume growth along with higher profitability from gas trading, petchem and LPG segment due to higher oil prices will add value
  • It operates a natural gas pipeline network of 14500 km as of end of FY22

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E 5 Year CAGR (FY17-22E) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22E-FY24E)
Revenues (| crore) 337,495.3 327,580.8 301,865.0 433,664.0 12.4 479,264.1 428,627.9 -0.6
EBITDA (| crore) 11,837.0 6,639.3 17,130.6 16,482.3 8.8 3,660.9 21,486.9 14.2
Net Profit (| crore) 7,132.0 2,683.2 19,041.7 8,935.4 2.1 -2,385.4 11,774.8 14.8
EPS (|) 36.3 13.6 91.0 42.0 - -11.2 55.3 -
P/E (x) 8.5 22.7 3.4 7.4 - -27.6 5.6 -
Price / Book (x) 1.7 1.8 1.2 1.3 - 1.4 1.2 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.6 16.3 5.4 6.2 - 29.1 4.7 -
RoCE (%) 13.1 3.5 14.8 13.2 - -2.2 15.2 -
RoE (%) 19.4 8.1 34.9 17.9 - -5.0 21.4 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q2FY23 Results: Refining margins higher than estimated

  • Bharat Oman Refineries (BORL) and Bharat Gas Resources (BGRL), wholly owned subsidiaries, have been merged with BPCL. Accordingly, the company has reported numbers post amalgamation in Q2FY23
  • BPCL’s marketing sales were at 11.4 MMT, up 15.4% YoY (down 2.7% QoQ), in line with estimate. The company reported marketing inventory loss and forex loss of | 384 crore and | 1549.62 crore, respectively
  • We expect marketing sales at 46.6 MMT and 48.7 MMT in FY23E and FY24E, respectively
  • BPCL achieved crude throughput of 8.8 MMT post amalgamation of BORL. BORL has 7.8 MMTPA refining capacity. Going ahead, on account of increased capacity, we estimate crude throughput of 37 MMT and 40 MMT in FY23E and FY24E, respectively
  • Reported GRMs at US$16.8/bbl were above our estimate of US$ 5.1/bbl. The company did not disclose refining inventory details. Marketing losses were higher than estimates as per our understanding. Going ahead, we estimate GRM at US$16/bbl and US$8/bbl in FY23E and FY24E, respectively taking into account current product cracks trend
  Q2FY23 Q2FY23E Q2FY22 YoY (%) Q1FY23 QoQ (%)   Comments
Total Revenues 1,28,332.7 1,13,206.7 1,01,889.2 26.0 1,38,389.6 -7.3   The company received a one-time grant of | 5582 crore
Raw materials costs 59,555.2 50,814.3 37,294.3 59.7 63,615.4 -6.4    
Employees Cost 560.7 819.4 795.3 -29.5 624.7 -10.2    
Other Expenses 66,782.8 68,066.0 59,032.4 13.1 80,014.4 -16.5    
Total Expenditure 1,26,898.7 1,19,699.7 97,122.0 30.7 1,44,254.6 -12.0    
EBITDA 1,434.0 -6,493.0 4,767.2 -69.9 -5,865.0 -124.5   While GRMs were above estimates, marketing losses were higher than expected
EBITDA margins (%) 1.1 -5.7 4.7 -356 bps -4.2 536 bps    
Depreciation 1,556.6 1,299.7 1,388.5 12.1 1,613.1 -3.5    
EBIT -122.6 -7,792.7 3,378.8 -103.6 -7,478.0 -98.4    
Interest 810.6 536.3 511.6 58.5 615.5 31.7    
Other Income 557.4 635.0 887.6 -37.2 441.7 26.2    
Extra Ordinary Item 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA 0.0 NA    
PBT -375.8 -7,694.0 3,754.8 -110.0 -7,651.9 -95.1    
Total Tax -71.6 -1,938.9 914.1 -107.8 -1,396.9 -94.9    
PAT -304.2 -5,755.1 2,840.7 -110.7 -6,254.9 -95.1    
                 
Key Metrics                
Exchange rate (|/$) 79.8 79.8 74.1 7.7 77.3 3.3    
Throughput (mmt) 8.8 8.9 7.2 23.2 9.7 -9.0   In line with estimates
Sales (mmt) 11.4 11.1 9.9 15.4 11.8 -2.7   In line with estimates
GRM ($/barrel) 16.8 5.1 6.0 178.0 27.5 -39.0   Higher than estimates

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

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pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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