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Auto September Volumes: 2-Ws continue to outshine, CV’s stage deep decline

ICICIdirect Research 04 Oct 2024 DISCLAIMER

This month wholesales should be viewed under the lens that inauspicious period under Hindu calendar i.e. Pitru Paksha/ Shraddha period for the current year was from 17th Sep-2nd Oct vs. the last year timeline of 29th Sept-14th Oct. So, the base on YoY basis was high. To get a clear picture we propose looking Sep-Oct numbers together.
In 2-W pack, Bajaj Auto outperformed its peers primarily led by healthy growth in domestic segment (28% YoY) with total volumes at 4 lakh units, up 22% YoY. TVS Motor continued with its healthy performance and reported volume growth of 22% YoY at 4.7 lakh units. Royal Enfield at Eicher Motors reported a good show this time with sales volumes at 87k units, up 11% YoY, this is the highest ever wholesales by the company in history. Exports grew healthy double digit at all the players in the 2-W space. 

In PV space, M&M continues to outperform its peers with volumes growing 25% YoY at 51k units. Tata Motors volumes were down by 9% YoY at 41k units. Maruti volumes were however steady at 1.8 lakh units, up 1.4% YoY. Product mix was steady at Maruti with UV share in total sales volume pegged at ~33% vs. 34% in the previous month.

In CV segment, Tata Motors reported volumes of 30k units, down 23% YoY. Ashok Leyland volumes also de-grew by 10% YoY to 17k units. While VECV arm of Eicher Motors witnessed growth of 6% YoY at 7.6k units. Truck segment witnessed a sharp decline for the month while buses segment fared well. With capex led policy continuity at the centre, we expect industry volumes to fare well in H2FY25.

In tractor space, M&M reported volumes of 44k units, up by 2.4% YoY while Escorts reported a growth of 2.5% YoY at 12.4k units.

For FY25E, we expect growth trajectory to be led by the 2-W space with high base limiting growth in PV and CV categories

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