Auto volumes: Domestic stage posts festive cool-off while exports recover in November 2024

Wholesale volume prints for the month of November 2024 were broadly stable. 2Wand PV witness a steady growth while CV reported a flattish performance.

2-W space witnessed a steady growth led by healthy recovery in exports volumes across all players. PV space surprised positively with Maruti and M&M reporting double-digit volume growth. While, CV segment reported a flattish performance amid buses segment outperforming the trucks space.

Key outperformers within key segments were TVS Motors in the 2W space while M&M outperformed in PV and tractor domain. VECV arm of Eicher Motor outperformed in CV space.
In 2-W pack, TVS Motors outperformed its peers with healthy growth of 12% YoY at 3.9 lakh units. While, Eicher Motors witness a marginal growth of 2.5% YoY at 82k units. Notably, more than 350 cc segment of Eicher Motors has nearly double on YoY basis at ~11k units.

In PV space, M&M continued to outperform its peers with volumes growing 15.6% YoY at ~46k units. Maruti Suzuki reported healthy volume prints at 1.8 lakh units, up 10% YoY. Tata Motors reported a marginal growth of 2% YoY at 47k units, while EV volumes staged a healthy recovery of 9% YoY at 5.2k units. Volumes at recently listed Hyundai Motors were down 7% YoY at 61k units.

In CV segment, Tata motors reported muted CV volumes of 28k units, down 1.4% YoY. Ashok Leyland volumes were flat YoY at 14k units. While VECV arm of Eicher Motors reported a growth of 7% YoY at 5.6k units. Within M&HCV space, buses sub-segment continued to perform better than trucks. With expected pick up in government capex, CV volumes are likely to improve going forward.

In tractor space, M&M reported volumes of 33k units, up by 4% YoY while Escorts reported a degrowth of 9.4% YoY at 8.9k units.

Interestingly, Vahan registrations (retail sales) for November 2024 totaled ~32.2 lakh units, up ~11% on YoY basis

Our top bet in the OEM space is M&M. We have a BUY rating on the stock with a target price of ₹ 3,600