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CPI Inflation – without vegetables led inflation, CPI would have been < 4%

ICICIdirect Research 14 Nov 2024 DISCLAIMER

CPI inflation rose to 6.2% YoY during the month of October 2024 as against market expectation of around 5.9-6.0% and as compared to 5.5% in the month of September 2024.

Food inflation remain major contributor at 10.9% while core inflation continue to remain largely range bound at lower levels at 3.8% (Avg since last 12 month at 3.5%).

Within Vegetables, Tomatoes (160%), Onion (51%), Potatoes (65%) were major contributor.
Within core inflation, Gold prices rose further at 11% Vs 9% previous month.

Primarily only 3 items contributed to inflation: Vegetables (42%), Oil & fats (9.5%), Fruits(8.4%).
On a MoM basis, only 2 items rose viz. Vegetables by 8.1% and Oil & fats rose 6%.

Assuming Vegetable inflation at normalized levels of around 5% (instead of current 42%) , headline CPI inflation would have been 3.8%.

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