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Monsoon 2024: Above normal at 108% of LPA

ICICIdirect Research 04 Oct 2024 DISCLAIMER

The cumulative rainfall in the just concluded monsoon season 2024 (1st June-30th September) pan India stood at 108% of LPA vs. the IMD forecast of 106% of LPA.

Most of the states had normal to excess rainfall while it was short in the states of Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab and Arunachal Pradesh (cumulatively constitute ~11% of total area).

Most importantly, seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the monsoon core zone, which consists of most of the rain fed agriculture regions in the country received 122% of LPA.  

Monthly rainfall over the country as a whole was 89% of LPA in June, 109% of LPA in July, 115% of LPA in August, and 112% of LPA in September.  

In terms of water reservoir levels, present water levels are healthy at 118% of last year & 114% of last 10 years average.

Thus, on the back of positive monsoons and water reservoir levels, farm sentiment is upbeat and we expect domestic rural focussed businesses to do well in the near to medium term.

Consequently, we are positive on the 2-W space and select consumer good companies.
Domestic foodgrain production target for FY25 is pegged at 340 MT (up 3% YoY), which should not be difficult to meet and shall also keep inflation under check.

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