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Escorts Kubota Ltd>
  • CMP : 4,025.6 Chg : -25.60 (-0.63%)
  • Target : 2,165.0 (9.90%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

22 Feb 2023

Delayed margin recovery to outweigh structurally positive levers aimed for long term growth…

About The Stock

The company is a prominent tractor maker domestically (10.3% FY22 market share). It also serves domestic construction equipment, railways space.

  • FY22 sales mix – tractors 77%, construction equipment 14%, railways 9%
  • Past five-year CAGR: 24.1%, 35.6% in EBITDA, PAT; cash positive b/s
Q3FY23

The company posted muted Q3FY23 performance.

  • Total operating income stood at ₹ 2,264 crores up 15.6% YoY
  • EBITDA margins for the quarter came in at 8.4%, up 30 bps QoQ and were the real dampener with gross margins contracting 210 bps QoQ and management commentary suggesting limited gains on this front.
  • PAT declined 7.5% YoY to ₹ 186.4 crores.
What should Investors do?

Company’ stock price has grown ~17% CAGR over last five years from ~₹ 910 in Feb 2018, vastly outperforming the Nifty Auto Index.

  • We downgrade stock from BUY to HOLD rating amid limited gross margin expansion underway at the company and await affirmative steps towards its medium-term targets (FY28E) before turning decisively positive on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

Introducing FY25E, we now value Escorts Kubota Ltd at SOTP-based TP of ₹ 2,165 (25x P/E on average FY24-25E EPS; Earlier TP of ₹2,365)

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Leveraging Kubota channel for exports amid healthy rural sentiments and upbeat farm income domestically, we expect tractor volumes at the company to grow at ~11.3% CAGR over FY22-25E
  • Construction equipment (CE) and railways (RED) segments to perform well over FY22-25E amidst pickup in economic activity, strong order book & strong support from government in terms of robust budgetary allocation.
  • Key MTPB targets (i) grow revenues to >2.5x of FY22 levels (i.e. ~₹ 22,500+ crore in FY28E); (ii) increase share of exports to ~15-20% in FY28E; (iii) target EBITDA margins to mid-teens; (iv) RoCE at 25-30% and RoE>18%.
  • We expect sales at Escorts to grow at CAGR of 15.1% over FY22-25E, with consequent operating margins expected at 10.5% by FY25E.
Alternate Stock Ideas

Leaving aside Escorts Kubota, we like M&M in auto space.

  • Focused on prudent capital allocation, UV differentiation & EV proactiveness
  • BUY with target price of ₹ 1,590

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR (FY22-25E)
Net Sales 5,761.0 6,929.3 7,152.6 11.8 8,319.6 9,594.5 10,897.1 15.1
EBITDA 675.8 1,129.2 951.4 24.1 728.0 911.5 1,144.2 6.3
EBITDA Margins (%) 11.7 16.3 13.3 - 8.8 9.5 10.5 -
Net Profit 485.6 874.1 765.7 36.7 594.7 800.5 955.0 7.6
EPS (₹) 36.8 66.3 58.0 - 45.1 60.7 72.4 -
P/E 53.5 29.7 33.9 - 43.7 32.5 27.2 -
RoNW (%) 14.2 16.2 9.7 - 8.0 9.0 9.9 -
RoIC (%) 23.3 42.1 27.2 - 19.5 23.6 26.5 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & Concall highlights

Q3FY23 Results: Muted numbers on the plate

  • Among segments, gross revenue from Agri equipment machinery (EAM) i.e., tractors stood at | 1,708 crore up 13.4% YoY amid 10.7% YoY tractor volume jump to 28,025 units. ASPs came in at | 6.09 lakh/unit (down 0.7% QoQ) amidst adverse product mix.
  • Gross revenue from construction equipment grew 26.5% QoQ to | 306 crore in Q3FY23 while railway equipment division was up 37% QoQ at | 249 crore. Present Railway order book stands at ~>=| 1,000 crore as of December 2022 end vs ~| 900 crore as of September 2022 
  • Margin performance was lower than our expectation. Gross margins contracted by ~212 bps QoQ. EAM EBIT margins were flat sequentially to 8.4% while the same for the construction equipment and railways division stood at 2.2% (up 485 bps) and 13.1% (down 155 bps) respectively. 
  • Consequent PAT in Q3FY23 was down 7.5% YoY at |186.4 crore. PAT performance was due to lower than expected margins, however rose sequentially due to onetime exceptional loss booked during Q2FY23.

Q3FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Management informed about export being affected due adverse conditions in its key market Nepal & Bangladesh.
  • Margins came in muted due to (i) inflationary scenario, (ii) unabsorbed input cost persisting in system (~1-2% impact still unabsorbed); (iii) Price rationalization; (iv) Adverse product mix; (v) Price hike taken in Nov 22, not fully accounted. However, company guided about some margin recovery in Q1FY24E.
  • Company informed about steel forming just ~17% of total input cost where as other components like forged items & tyres cost (forming ~50% of total cost) are still inflated adding up to muted margins.
  • Company reported market share gain by ~90 bps QoQ with current Market share at 10.6% vs 9.7% in Q2FY23. Management expects Q4FY23E market share to be higher than Q3FY23E. Overall company outperform industry by growing at 12.3% vs industry growth of 10.5%.
  • Management informed about farm sentiments been positive due to: (i) high reservoir levels; (ii) easy financing; (iii) healthy rabi season; (iv) healthy crop realizations. Management expects positive momentum in tractor industry to continue resulting in attaining a new peak i.e. 9lakh+ units in FY23E.
  • Management expects railway division to grow at similar pace over FY23-24E riding on ~>=₹1000 crores order book. Also, company during the quarter won order for HVAC panels, split disc brakes & damper.
  • Tractor industry grew by 7.6% in Northern & Central Region & 13.5% in southern & western region. Company now has ~1,200+ dealers across India. Management does not expect and price hike in Q4FY23E.
  • Channel inventory is at normal levels ~4-4.5 weeks.
  • TERM IV norms (applicable to >50 hp tractors) is now in effect but company has not witnessed any demand pressure as still some stock is left. However, company expects shift from >50 Hp to <50Hp temporarily.

Disclaimer

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