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  • CMP : 1,993.1 Chg : 36.0 (1.84%)
  • Target : 440.0 (12.24%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

16 Aug 2022

Weak margins; US base business under pressure…

About The Stock

Glenmark’s business is separated into three entities –

  • Glenmark Pharmaceuticals for building a global generic, specialty and OTC business in therapy areas of dermatology, respiratory, oncology among others
  • Glenmark Life Sciences for manufacturing and marketing APIs
  • Innovation new company (ICHNOS) to focus on discovery and development of novel, first‐in‐class treatments in the therapeutic areas of immunology, oncology and pain encompassing both NBEs as well as NCEs
Q1FY23

Glenmark reported traction in India (ex-Covid) while the US performance was subdued (both YoY and QoQ) as were margins.

  • Sales were down 6% YoY to ₹ 2777 crore
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 432 crore, down 25% YoY with margins at 15.5%
  • Adjusted PAT was at ₹ 192 crore (down 37% YoY)
What should Investors do?

Glenmark’s share price has de-grown by ~0.9x over past three years (from ~₹ 416 in August 2019 to ~₹ 388 levels in August 2022).

  • Maintain HOLD as we await EBITDA margin sustainability besides persisting US base business pressure amid regulatory hurdles at Monroe facility
Target Price and Valuation

We value Glenmark at ₹440 based on SOTP valuation

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • In the US, regulatory clearance for newly commissioned US based Monroe facility will be the key determinant for future launches
  • Traction for Ryaltris in global markets along with the launch in the US
  • In India, it is the market leader in dermatology and improving its presence in respiratory, CVS, anti-infectives and anti-diabetics, in particular. It has also forayed into consumer health segment focusing on Rx-OTC switch products led by two brands, Candid and Scalpe+
  • Progress on the margins front amid cost rationalisation measures and decline in R&D expenses as percentage of sales
Alternate Stock Idea:

Apart from Glenmark, in healthcare coverage we like Ajanta.

  • Ajanta Pharma is a focused player in branded space with specific strategy for maximum number of first time launches with new drug delivery system
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1495

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Revenues 9,865.5 10,641.0 10,943.9 12,304.9 6.0 12,699.1 13,979.9 6.6
EBITDA 1,585.8 1,698.1 2,084.4 2,320.3 2.6 2,287.7 2,516.4 4.1
EBITDA margins (%) 16.1 16.0 19.0 18.9 - 18.0 18.0 -
Adjusted PAT 757.8 743.1 925.5 1,202.6 0.0 1,113.5 1,263.2 2.5
EPS (|) 26.9 26.4 32.9 42.7 - 39.5 44.9 -
PE (x) 11.9 14.2 11.4 11.7 - 9.9 8.7 -
EV to EBITDA (x) 8.8 8.7 7.0 5.7 - 5.5 4.8 -
RoNW (%) 13.5 12.2 13.1 13.2 - 11.0 11.2 -
RoCE (%) 15.3 12.7 13.9 14.8 - 14.7 14.4 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q1FY23 Results: Muted numbers, margins trending lower

  • Revenues de-grew 6% YoY to | 2777 crore on the back of 16% YoY de-growth in US to | 663 crore while 15% YoY decline in India to | 1035 crore was on account of a high base due to sales of Covid-related products in Q1FY22. RoW markets grew 26% YoY to | 423 crore and Europe grew 8% YoY to | 330 crore. APIs sales increased 7% YoY to | 325 crore. EBITDA margins declined 381 bps YoY to 15.5% mainly due to adverse operating leverage. EBITDA de-grew 25% YoY to | 432 crore while adjusted PAT declined 37% YoY to | 192 crore. Delta vis-à-vis EBITDA was mainly due to higher depreciation and tax being partly offset by higher other income
  • Glenmark’s numbers were below our expectations. Excluding Covid in base portfolio sales grew 10% YoY in this quarter. The company witnessed healthy growth in both its key markets of Western Europe and Central Eastern Europe during the quarter while there was healthy growth in base business across geographies in RoW markets. Glenmark is focused to meet key objectives for FY23 with 6-8% growth, steady EBITDA margins and prioritise free cash generation for further debt reduction

 

Q1FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • India: The YoY decline is on account of a high base due to sales of Covid-related products in Q1FY22. During the quarter, Glenmark’s India business further strengthened its position in its core therapy areas such as cardiac and anti-diabetic in terms of market share. The company launched seven new products in this quarter and has launches in place in respiratory and diabetic therapies for FY23. The management is indicating that 15-16% growth in base business ex-Covid is sustainable
  • US: In Q1, Glenmark launched Abiraterone Acetate Tablets and Ezetimibe Tablet. Glenmark plans to file one application in the forthcoming quarter, as well as a prior approval supplement to expand the OTC portfolio, which is complemented by the acquisition of five approved OTC ANDAs from Wockhardt. The company plans to file 12-15 ANDAs and launch 10-12 products in FY23. Remediation for Munroe facility is underway and the management aims to commercialise production by Q4FY23. The management has indicated for flat to low single digit growth in FY23
  • Europe: Glenmark witnessed steady growth in both its key markets of Western Europe and Central & Eastern Europe during the quarter. Glenmark has a comprehensive plan to grow its European business going ahead, including geographical expansion in new markets and expansion of its product portfolio to leverage launches in key therapeutic segments like respiratory and dermatology. The management is guiding to grow at CAGR of 15-20% on back of respiratory pipeline and Rylatris
  • RCIS, Asia, LatAm and MEA Region (RoW): The challenging conditions in Russia, as a consequence of the economic sanctions led to erratic consumer behaviour in March, which impacted the sales in Q1FY23. Secondary sales de-grew 11% YoY in value terms during the current quarter
  • Across the markets globally, Ryaltris has potential to be US$150 million product in three years’ time.
  • Glenmark had | 41 crore Covid related inventory provisioning in Q1FY23. Another | 30-40 crore of Covid inventory remains in trade channels
 
Variance Analysis:

  Q1FY23 Q1FY22 Q4FY22 YoY (%) QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 2,777.3 2,964.9 3,019.1 -6.3 -8.0   YoY growth driven by India and US markets 
Raw Material Expenses 1,012.0 1,139.0 1,030.9 -11.1 -1.8    
Gross Margin (%) 63.6 61.6 65.9 198 bps -230 bps    
Employee Expenses 636.4 596.4 577.7 6.7 10.2    
Other Expenditure 697.3 655.9 947.2 6.3 -26.4   Covid related write-off of | 41 crore in Q1FY23
EBITDA 431.6 573.6 463.4 -24.8 -6.9    
EBITDA (%) 15.5 19.3 15.3 -381 bps 19 bps   YoY decline due to higher other expenditure and employee cost
Interest  60.0 75.6 86.9 -20.7 -30.9    
Depreciation 146.8 113.1 131.5 29.8 11.6    
Other Income 183.2 58.6 107.2 212.3 70.9    
PBT before EO & Forex 408.0 443.6 352.2 -8.0 15.8    
Less: EO & Forex 0.0 0.0 82.5 NA NA    
PBT 408.0 443.6 269.7 -8.0 51.3    
Tax  196.9 137.0 97.1 43.7 102.7    
PAT before MI 211.1 306.5 172.6 -31.1 22.3    
Adj. Net Profit 192.5 306.5 238.1 -37.2 -19.1   Delta vis-à-vis EBITDA was mainly due to higher depreciation and tax
Key Metrics              
US 662.8 787.8 737.8 -15.9 -10.2   YoY decline amid price erosion in base business
Europe 330.0 305.9 496.8 7.9 -33.6   YoY growth driven healthy growth in both its key markets of Western Europe and Central Eastern Europe 
India 1,035.2 1,225.0 884.7 -15.5 17.0   YoY de-growth on a high base due to sales of Covid-related products in Q1FY22
RoW markets 422.6 336.1 547.9 25.7 -22.9   YoY growth witnessed due to healthy growth in base business across geographies (excluding Russia) in RoW markets
API 325.1 304.0 328.3 6.9 -1.0    

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