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  • CMP : 1,416.3 Chg : 15.10 (1.08%)
  • Target : 1,345.0 (18.61%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

17 Mar 2022

Slower price hikes delay margin recovery…

About The Stock

Havells India (HIL) is India’s leading electrical appliances & equipment manufacturer with a diversified product portfolio consisting of switchgears, cables, electrical consumer durables and lighting & fixtures. Apart from ‘Havells’, HIL’s other major brands include Crabtree, Standard, Reo and Lloyd.

  • In all its business segments, Havells has a strong presence in the organised product category with market share ranging between 6% and 20%
  • Robust balance sheet with RoE & RoCE of 20% & 25%, respectively (five-year average), with stringent working capital policy
Q3FY22

Strong revenue growth but EBITDA margins under pressure due to delayed price hikes.

  • Revenue up 15% YoY to ₹ 3652 crore supported by strong growth in the wire & cable segment (was up 33% YoY)
  • EBITDA margin declined 400 bps YoY to 12%, mainly due to a sharp increase in raw material cost and delayed price hike
  • PAT fell ~12% YoY to ~₹ 306 crore tracking lower EBITDA margin
What should Investors do?

Strong B2C brand, focus on margin improvement of Lloyd through change in product mix and strong pan-India distribution (~14,270 dealers). The company’s share price has grown ~3x in the last five years.

  • We continue to remain positive and maintain BUY rating
Target Price Valuation

We value the stock at 50x FY24 EPS and revise the target price to ₹ 1345/share

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Total ~1.7 crore new houses under PMAY, urbanisation and rising aspiration level will give a significant boost to demand for home appliances
  • Revival in the Lloyd business through new launches and improvement in segment margin
  • It aims to increase its town penetration from current 1150 to 2000 and retail touch points from 1.6 lakh to 2.5 lakh over the next five years
  • Model revenue, earnings CAGR of ~21%, 20%, respectively, in FY21-24E
New Stock Ideas

 Besides Havells, we also like Polycab in the same space.

  • We like Polycab for its strong brand & leadership position in the wire & cable business and aggressive plans to expand its FMEG product portfolio
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 2800

Key Financial Summary

| Crore FY19 FY20 FY21 5Year CAGR (FY16-21) FY22E FY23E FY24E 3Year CAGR (FY21-24E)
Net Sales 10,067.8 9,429.2 10,427.9 14.2 13,086.5 14,926.9 17,824.9 19.6
EBITDA 1,183.9 1,027.4 1,565.2 15.7 1,683.3 1,781.1 2,416.8 15.6
EBITDA Margin (%) 11.8 10.9 15.0 - 12.9 11.9 13.6 -
PAT 787.4 733.0 1,039.6 7.9 1,157.0 1,217.7 1,680.7 17.4
EPS (|) 12.6 11.7 16.7 - 18.5 19.5 26.9 -
P/E (x) 89.9 96.5 68.1 - 61.2 58.1 42.1 -
Price/Book Value (x) 16.9 16.4 13.7 - 12.9 12.7 12.2 -
Mcap/Sales 7.0 7.5 6.8 - 5.4 4.7 4.0 -
RoE (%) 18.8 17.0 20.1 - 21.1 21.8 29.1 -
RoCE (%) 25.4 19.6 24.9 - 25.5 26.3 35.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of Q3FY22 results & conference call highlight

Q3FY22 Results: Delay in price hikes drag margin

  • Havells’ EBITDA margin at 12% came in below our estimate (14%) mainly due to restoration of advertisement expenses (up 95% YoY) and lower gross margins (declined 583 bps YoY). Further, the management has guided for calibrated price hike of 5-10% in Q4FY22 to offset input cost pressure
  • Revenue growth at 15% YoY came in much better than our estimate of 9%. This was mainly driven by 33% revenue growth in the wire & cable segments. Lloyd segment revenue declined 9% YoY, mainly due to high base and a weak second summer   
  • PAT declined ~12% YoY, mainly due to lower EBITDA margin

Q3FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Demand outlook: Near term growth is likely to be impacted by pandemic led restrictions, delayed price hikes. However, long term growth drivers like revival in the real estate industry and rising disposable income remains intact. The company sees meaningful market share in its recently launched washing machine and refrigerator business in next three to four years
  • Margin: Further price hikes (5-10%) on the cards to offset high raw material cost. Focus on increasing profitability of Lloyd through better product mix and increased operating leverage
  • Lloyd: Inventory is at a normal level for Lloyd. The company aims to further increase market share in the RAC segment. Havells has applied for PLI in the RAC segment only

Capex: Planned | 250-270 crore of capex for FY22E

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