loader2
Login Open ICICI 3-in-1 Account
  • CMP : 706.0 Chg : 7.25 (1.04%)
  • Target : 345.0 (21.05%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

12 Aug 2022

Operational metrics robust; outlook sustainable…

About The Stock

HCG operates one of the largest private cancer care networks in India with end-to-end solutions available under a single corporate entity. Most centres are on a lease or rental basis with some in partnership with local doctors or hospitals. Owing to exclusive agreement with vendors, HCG procures equipment on a deferred payment basis. Milann offers seven fertility centres in India.
• HCG network has 22 comprehensive cancer centres (one in Kenya), four multi-specialty hospitals. HCG India, capacity beds: 1944; 1702 operational
• Revenue mix FY22: HCG:96%, Milann:4%; occupancy FY22: 58.3%; ARPOBD FY22: 36,697

Q1FY23

HCG reported continued momentum at HCG centres this quarter.
• Sales were up 26.3% YoY to ₹ 408.1 crore
• EBITDA was at ₹ 72 crore, up 39.3% YoY with margins at 17.7%
• Consequent adjusted profit for the quarter was at ₹ 6.1 crore

What should Investors do?

HCG’s share price has grown by ~1x over the past five years (from ~₹ 268 in August 2017 to ~₹ 285 in August 2022).
• Maintain BUY due to 1) consistency in occupancy sustainable, 2) newer assets to turn profitable and complement existing centres and 3) singular focus to consolidate existing business for better margins

Target Price and Valuation

We value HCG at ₹ 345 (HCG existing centres and new centres at 12x FY24E EV/EBITDA and Milann centres at 1x FY24E EV/sales)

Key Triggers for future price performance

• HCG, with its integrated, one-stop-solution and focused model, is well poised to capture growing potential with pan-India focus on cancer therapy
• Focused on consolidating existing network through cost optimisation measures to improve margin and ramping up patient’s footfall by engaging in direct-to patient promotion strategies
• Oncology cases are expected to increase by 100,000 to 350,000 cases a year which bodes well for HCG with hybrid presence (Metros/Tier-2,3 towns)
• De-leveraging of balance sheet, reduction of losses across new centres have substantially eased legacy overhangs, improvement in consolidated return ratio profile still remains a key

Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from HCG, in our hospital coverage we like Narayana.
• Narayana operates a duel model, which perfectly blends established ‘’Assetright’’ India business with a hospital in Cayman Islands
• BUY with a target price of ₹ 800

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Revenues 976.0 1,095.6 1,013.4 1,397.8 14.8 1,721.5 1,880.1 16.0
EBITDA 111.6 159.9 126.2 236.5 17.6 312.0 364.0 24.0
EBITDA margins (%) 11.4 14.6 12.5 16.9 - 18.1 19.4 -
Net Profit -30.9 -125.5 -193.5 53.7 19.4 63.2 122.8 51.2
EPS (|) -1.8 -7.7 -7.2 -2.9 - 4.5 8.8 -
M.Cap/ Revenues (x) 4.1 3.6 3.9 2.8 - 2.3 2.1 -
EV to EBITDA (x) 41.2 33.0 38.8 19.8 - 14.5 11.8 -
RoCE (%) 3.0 1.0 -0.9 5.0 - 9.4 12.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q1FY23 Results: Robust performance continues
• Healthcare Global’s (HCG) revenues grew 26% YoY to | 408 crore driven by 23% YoY growth in existing HCG centres to | 298 crore and 34% YoY growth in new HCG centres to | 93 crore. EBITDA margins improved 165 bps YoY to 17.7% while EBITDA grew 39% YoY to | 72 crore. Adjusted net profit for the quarter was at | 6 crore against loss of | 10 crore in Q1FY22
• HCG’s revenues were a beat on our estimates while margins were marginally lower than expected. Financial performance of HCG has improved over the last few quarters as revenues have increased by ~1.7x since Q2FY21 while EBIDTA in absolute terms have grown by 2.4x over the last eight quarters. HCG is now focussed on digital transformation, cost optimisation and efficiency enhancement, growth of medical value travel, and inorganic acquisitions. HCG, with its integrated, one-stop-solution and focused model, is well poised to capture the growing potential with pan-India focus on cancer therapy

Q1FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights
• The company is working on capacity and capability enhancements for better clinical outcomes. HCG has acquired next generation sequencer, introduced enterprise RIS PACS, in collaboration with Siemens, AI adaptive Radio-therapy in CoE at Bengaluru
• The management is confident of sustaining growth momentum and has identified four key focus areas - 1) digital transformation: build brand online and improve footfall and improve processes to improve patient experience, 2) cost optimisation and efficiency enhancement: workforce productivity, staffing and pricing to improve margins, 3) growth of medical value travel: recast international strategy to increase presence in geographies and channels, create greater brand pull (averaging 1.4x pre-Covid levels), 4) inorganic acquisitions are being actively pursued
• HCG centres: AOR: 64.6% (existing:64%, new:66%). In new centres, 70% of capacity beds are operational. Occupancy trend is growing on the back of the company’s go to market strategy. Going forward, HCG can reach 75% occupancy on the back of traction at key centres. Growth will not be a challenge as HCG will make more beds operational (capacity:1979 beds, operational:1737 beds)
• HCG centres: ARPOB: | 38,454 (existing: | 40,606, news: | 32,968). Improvement due to price increase, pricing for cash and TPA revisions, positive mix change (hospitals with NABL accreditation gives pricing ability). Every year HCG does 2-3% inflationary price increase. This year, a more structured price revision is likely in 10 more markets post Bengaluru
• Bengaluru was earlier the choice for international business while now Mumbai and Kolkata are also important. At HCG level, international business is 4% while at Bengaluru CoE it is 15%
• In Milann, new registrations grew 138% YoY while revenues grew 43% to
| 17.3 crore
• Capex for Ahmedabad (| 85 crore) and extension on Bengaluru-CoE (|25 crore) is on track and is expected to be completed by Q1FY25 and Q1FY24 respectively

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Siddhant Khandekar, Inter CA, Raunak Thakur, PGDM, Kush Mehta, CA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products.

ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com. 

ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities and its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives are generally prohibited from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. 

Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stocks price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing on a companys fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports. 

Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. 

ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Retail Research. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the Institutional Research. 

The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances. 

This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction. 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months. 

ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. 

Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. 

ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. 

RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according -to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5%to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

research@icicidirect.com

Read More