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IIFL Securities Ltd>
  • CMP : 190.0 Chg : 0.57 (0.30%)
  • Target : 65.0 (12.07%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

02 May 2023

Improved performance, sustainability to be seen…

About The Stock

IIFL Securities (IIFL Sec) is engaged in retail and institutional broking, distribution of financial products and investment banking.

  • The company has an average daily turnover of ₹ 195600 crore
  • IIFL’s institutional broking segment has ~850+ domestic and foreign clients
Q4FY23

IIFL Sec reported a strong performance.

  • Client addition moderates to ~49000; ADTO up 25% QoQ to ₹ 1.9 lakh crore
  • Revenue up 16% YoY, 17% QoQ amid increase in brokerage & distribution income
  • Overall opex increased 3% QoQ, resulting in 34% increase in PAT QoQ and 9% YoY growth to ₹ 86 crore
What should Investors do?

Led by market cyclicality and continuous regulation brokerage stocks have suffered. Accordingly, IIFL Sec’s share price has corrected by 15% in the last six months. The management’s change in strategy in the last couple of quarters to focus on affluent customers and not just chase client addition seems to be working well. However, sustainability of volume growth and accordingly revenue growth needs to be seen.

  • We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We expect consolidation to continue. Also, transfer of the IIFL Securities online retail trading business to 5Paisa Capital subject to statutory approvals is awaited. Accordingly, we value IIFL Sec at ~7.2x FY25E EPS and revise our target price to ₹ 65.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Focused client acquisition, insurance and distribution pick-up
  • Higher client engagement to improve per client matrix
  • Fierce competition from discount brokers remains a challenge
  • Exit from real estate assets to offer onetime gains
Alternate Stock

Apart from IIFL Sec, in our coverage we also like       Motilal Oswal Financial.

  • Motilal Oswal Financial is a diversified financial services company, which includes broking, wealth/asset management, housing and PE
  • BUY with SoTP target price of ₹ 790

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 3 Year CAGR(FY20-FY23) FY24E FY25E 2 Year CAGR (FY23-FY25E)
ADTO (| crore) 20,070.0 29,590.0 78,753.0 154,066.4 97.3 203,800.2 234,370.2 23.3
Market Share (%) 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 -6.6 1.2 1.2 0.9
Revenue from operation (| crore) 717.5 790.9 1,232.3 1,352.0 23.5 1,371.5 1,473.4 4.4
Net Profit (| crore) 232.1 220.3 305.8 249.7 2.5 242.3 276.9 5.3
EPS (|) 7.3 7.3 10.1 8.2 - 7.9 9.1 -
P/E (x) 8.0 8.0 5.8 7.1 - 7.4 6.4 -
RoE (%) 28.8 23.9 28.5 19.7 - 16.5 16.0 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

Particulars Q4FY23 Q4FY22 YoY Q3FY23 QoQ
Revenue from operation 401.8 346.8 16% 342.0 17%
Retail brokerage 122.0 113.8 7% 118.8 3%
Distribution & related Income 95.0 55.8 70% 48.9 94%
Other Income 3.3 15.3 -78% 5.0 -34%
Total Income 405.1 362.0 12% 347.0 17%
           
Employee expense 92.3 96.7 -4% 90.3 2%
Finance cost 19.4 18.4 6% 18.4 6%
Depreciation 16.5 16.7 -1% 17.2 -4%
Other expenses 157.8 124.8 26% 136.1 16%
Total Expense 286.1 256.6 12% 261.9 9%
           
Profit Before Tax 119.0 105.5 13% 85.1 40%
Share of associate 0.0 0.0   0.0  
Tax 32.7 26.6 23% 20.5 60%
PAT 86.3 78.9 9% 64.6 34%

 

Q4FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Admin cost increased 16% due to technology and marketing cost
  • Other income declined 34% due to MTM losses
  • Brokerage rate on the retail side trending up, super discount rates will be difficult to maintain and decline in rates will stop at the minimum due to compliance cost
  • MTF total book at | 600 crore, | 300 crore self-sourced and | 300 crore borrowed funds
  • Technology cost and compliance cost has increased over the past two years and will continue to increase
  • Interest rate effect on finance cost was only partially passed to the customer due to competition in the broking business
  • Dividend yield at 30% is expected to continue as it is company policy and will be maintained as the company is conserving cash for working capital requirements
  • Total 7000 franchise/channel partners should double in the next few years
  • Client acquisition sourcing mix was 80:20, 80% in-house and 20% brokers. This will now be 70:30 through branches/RMs
  • Customer mix largely from tier II and tier III cities

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA and Pravin Mule, MBA Research Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.                      

 

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

 

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products.

ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.

 

ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities and its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives are generally prohibited from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.

 

Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stocks price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing on a companys fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports.

 

Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.

 

ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Retail Research. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the Institutional Research.

 

The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances.

 

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Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.

 

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