loader2
Partner With Us NRI
Indian Hotels Co Ltd>
  • CMP : 586.9 Chg : -23.0 (-3.77%)
  • Target : 390.0 (23.42%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

02 Feb 2023

Another strong performance

About The Stock

With room inventory of 178 hotels with 20,826 rooms, Indian Hotels has a diversified position in the hotel industry through brands such as Taj, Vivanta, SeleQtions and Ginger brands.

  • The company also has a selective presence in the luxury segment in the US, the UK, Africa, UAE and Maldives through owned/managed properties
  • The company enjoys strong support from its promoter Tata Sons and is also an important strategic business for the Tata Group.
Q3FY23 Results:

IHCL reported strong growth in revenues in Q3.

  • Revenue grew 51.7% YoY to ₹ 1685 crore. The same was up 22.8% vs. pre-Covid levels led by strong performance from the domestic segment
  • EBITDA margin also expanded 441 bps from pre-Covid levels to 35.4% on a consolidated basis
  • This led to a sharp rebound in net profit that was up 88% from pre-Covid levels to ₹ 382.7 crore
What should Investors do?

Along with the improved outlook, the company is also focusing on driving more efficiencies through cost optimisation

  • We remain positive on the company and retain our BUY rating
Target Price and Valuation

We value IHCL at ₹ 390 i.e. 23x FY25E EV/EBITDA.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Revival in foreign tourists, wedding season, G20 summit 2023 to provide further fillip to leisure and business hotel room demand, going forward
  • The company plans to have 300+ hotel room portfolio with zero net debt status. IHCL also aims to achieve 33%+ margins (35% for new businesses) through cost efficiencies
  • Expect revenue CAGR of 7.8% in FY23E-25E on a higher base. The domestic business has now recovered fully. Now growth is expected to be driven by foreign tourists and rebound in international business; Margins are seen at close to 33% in FY24E
  • Improved cash flows and divestment of non-core assets to strengthen b/s
Alternate Stock Idea:

In our hotel sector coverage, we also like EIH.

  • It is the premium segment key domestic hotel player. Like Taj, it also has strong hotel brands like Oberoi and Trident. It has a strong balance sheet
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 240/share

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E 3 Year CAGR (%) FY24E FY25E 2 Yeaar CAGR (%)
Net Sales 4,463.1 1,575.2 3,056.2 5,946.1 10.0 6,520.9 6,906.0 7.8
EBITDA 967.5 -361.8 404.8 1,961.5 26.6 2,176.6 2,320.2 8.8
EBITDA (%) 21.7 -23.0 13.2 33.0 - 33.4 33.6 -
Net Profit 354.4 -720.1 -247.7 1,091.2 45.5 1,181.4 1,334.2 10.6
EPS (|) 2.2 -6.0 -1.8 7.7 - 8.3 9.4 -
EV/EBITDA 49.1 -133.7 112.9 22.9 - 20.0 18.4 -
RoNW 7.4 -23.3 -3.7 13.5 - 13.0 12.8 -
RoCE 7.0 -6.2 1.3 14.2 - 15.2 15.0 -
ROE 7.4 -23.3 -3.7 13.5 - 13.0 12.8 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key performance highlights

  • Average occupancies for the domestic segment were at 71% (vs. 70% during pre-Covid) while average room rates surged sharply by 27% from pre-Covid levels to | 10,737/room nights

 

  • Within domestic segments, leisure room portfolio reported ARR growth of 44% while ARR of business and economy segment grew 17% and 32%, respectively, from pre-Covid levels

 

  • In terms of international segment, average occupancy recovered to 84% of pre-Covid levels to 60% while room rates were up 23% leading to RevPAR growth of 3% from pre-Covid levels. Region wise, Maldives and Dubai reported RevPAR growth of 26% and 35%, respectively, vs. pre-Covid while RevPAR of UK and US crossed pre-Covid level reporting growth of over 1%

 

  • EBITDA margins expanded 441 bps from pre-Covid levels to 35.4%. The same was far higher than our estimated margin of 31.3% as healthy growth in room rates and controlled fixed cost led to such higher delta during the quarter

 

  • The company signed four new hotels in Q3FY23. This will add another 349 rooms over the next two months in its total room portfolio. The company is planning to add 8,854 rooms with 67 hotels over the next five years of which over 6200 rooms will be added under management contract

 

Industry data

 

  • For 9MFY23, total industry room demand grew 5.4% while supply growth remained at 3.5%

 

  • The daily domestic air passenger traffic crossed the 4 lakh mark (i.e. pre-Covid levels) in December 2022 while growth in foreign tourist arrivals remained a laggard with total expected arrival of 6 million vs. 11 million during the pre-Covid era. Nevertheless, the same is now likely to contribute strongly in the revenues of premium segment hotel rooms during CY23 aided by key events like ongoing G20 summit, cricket world-cup, etc

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Rashesh Shah (CA), Debotro Sinha (MBA) Research Analyst, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products.

ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.

 

ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities and its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives are generally prohibited from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.

 

Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stocks price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing on a companys fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports.

 

Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.

 

ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Retail Research. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the Institutional Research.

 

The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances.

 

This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months.

 

ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report.

 

Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.

 

ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report.

 

Since associates of ICICI Securities and ICICI Securities as a entity are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or actual/beneficial ownership of one percent or more or other material conflict of interest various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report.

 

ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.

 

Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report.

 

We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities.

 

This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

 

RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5% to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

research@icicidirect.com

Read More