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NRI
Indian Hotels Co Ltd>
  • CMP : 709.9 Chg : -0.05 (-0.01%)
  • Target : 290.0 (26.64%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

28 Jun 2022

Clear sky ahead

About the stock

With room inventory of 20,581 rooms, Indian Hotels occupies diversified position in the hotel industry through brands such as Taj, Vivanta, SeleQtions and Ginger brands. The company also has selective presence in the luxury segment in the USA, the UK, Africa, Sri Lanka, the UAE and Maldives through owned/managed properties.

Current update

Past 2 years have been very challenging for the hotel sector due to pandemic related setbacks. While most part of FY21 remained shut for tourism, gradual re-opening of economy from H1FY22 led to a rise of revenge tourism. As a result, hotels across domestic leisure destinations, first witnessed sharp rebound in the bookings that was also aided by the tourists who would have otherwise travelled abroad in the absence of any restrictions. Now with full resumption of the economy along with opening-up of international borders for foreign tourists, we expect hotel business across key metro cities like Mumbai and Delhi to also improve significantly from FY23E. As per the latest DGCA data, domestic air traffic has now reached to ~94% of pre-covid levels based on last 3 months data despite higher air-fares. Hotel booking data also suggests strong buoyancy in the demand with hotel booking for March-June period crossing pre-pandemic levels led by wedding seasons, vacations and IPL matches. Also, opening of international borders for foreign tourists would further fuel growth from H2FY23E onwards. In terms of rooms supply, we expect launch of new hotel projects to get delayed due to higher land and input costs that would augur well for the existing branded players. Further, hotel players are now leaner in terms of costs that are sustainable in nature. Hence, we also expect companies to cross their pre-covid level EBITDA margins in FY23E as the cost optimization drive initiated from FY21 would start providing fruitful results from FY23E onwards.

Reduced fixed overheads to aid in healthy margin expansion

A majority of costs of the hotel industry are fixed (i.e. ~70% of total costs), with power/lighting and employee costs taking the major share. Due to long 18 months of pandemic phase, hotel players have structurally realigned their cost base to become leaner in terms of cost. Hence, we expect over 15% reduction in operating costs from pre-Covid levels which would help companies to improve margins sharply compared to pre-covid levels

What should investors do?
  • Given the strong growth momentum expected in all segments of tourism (ie premium & midscale hotels including air travel etc), we prefer leaders across these segments. Our top picks include Indian Hotels – having large presence in luxury hotel segment across India and International destinations
Target Price & Valuation
  • Along the improved outlook, the company is also focusing on driving more efficiencies through cost optimization. We remain positive on the company and maintain our BUY rating with TP of ₹290 (i.e.31x FY24E EV/EBITDA).
Key Triggers
  • Opening doors fully for foreign tourists (FTAs) from Mar-22 to provide further fillip to leisure and business hotel room demand from FY23 onwards
  • Expect revenue CAGR of 32.2% during FY22-24E. Margins seen at over 24% in FY24E which has potential to further expand by ~100bps thereafter

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 3 Year CAGR FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 4,512.0 4,463.1 1,575.2 3,056.2 -12.2 4,495.8 5,341.5 32.2
EBITDA 829.8 967.5 -361.8 404.8 -21.3 987.8 1,292.6 78.7
EBITDA (%) 18.4 21.7 -23.0 13.2 - 22.0 24.2 -
Net Profit 286.9 354.4 -720.1 -247.7
EPS (|) 2.0 2.2 -6.0 -1.8 - 3.5 5.6 -
EV/EBITDA 44.7 38.7 -105.8 87.9 - 35.9 26.4 -
RoNW 6.6 7.4 -23.3 -3.7 - 6.6 9.8 -
RoCE 7.4 7.0 -6.2 1.3 - 6.3 9.1 -
ROE 6.6 7.4 -23.3 -3.7 - 6.6 9.8 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

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