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Jubilant Pharmova Ltd>
  • CMP : 738.8 Chg : 12.85 (1.77%)
  • Target : 340.0 (5.56%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

03 Aug 2022

Headwinds persist; margin pressure amid generics impasse…

About The Stock

Jubilant Pharmova is engaged in specialty pharmaceuticals, CDMO, generics, drug discovery and proprietary novel drug businesses.

  • In specialty pharmaceuticals, it is the third largest radiopharmaceutical manufacturer with second largest commercial radio pharmacy network in US. It is the second biggest player in the allergenic extract market in the US
  • In CDMO (CMO, APIs) Jubilant is engaged in CMO of sterile injectables, ophthalmics, otics and ointments, creams and liquids
  • Revenue break up (FY22)- Generics - 19%, Specialty Pharma –43%, CDMO Sterile Injectable – 21% and CRDMO (CDMO-API + Drug Discovery) – 17%
Q1FY23

Traction in specialty pharmaceuticals and CRDMO was offset by muted numbers in CDMO sterile injectables and generics

  • Revenues were down 11% YoY to ₹ 1452 crore
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 192 crore, down 49% YoY with margins at 13.3%
  • Adjusted PAT was at ₹ 47 crore (down 71% YoY)
What should Investors do?

Jubilant’s share price has de-grown by ~0.8x in the past three years (from ~₹ 439 in August 2019 to ~₹ 360 in August 2022) even after considering demerger of life science ingredients business into Jubilant Ingrevia.

  • Downgraded from HOLD to REDUCE due to 1) negative operating leverage in generics amid regulatory overhang, 2) slower-than-expected ramp-up in Radiopharma, and 3) lack of ex-Covid growth levers in CDMO
Target Price Valuation

Valued at ₹ 360 i.e. 13x FY24E EPS of ₹ 26.1

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Expansion of capacity for sterile fill & finish at Spokane by 100% and new filler & lyo line at Montreal
  • Increase in CDMO order-book visibility amid loss of Covid opportunities
  • Ramp up in Ruby fill installations, embarking on executing turnaround plan in radio pharmacies with a target to achieve mid to high single digit EBITDA
  • Expansion into non-US markets and resolving regulatory concerns over Roorkee and Nanjangud facility
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from Jubilant, in CRAMs space we like Divi’s.

  • Quintessential play on Indian API/CRAMs segment
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 4655

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Revenues 9,110.8 5,975.8 6,098.5 6,130.2 0.4 5,870.9 6,392.8 2.1
EBITDA 1,739.0 1,548.0 1,396.5 1,156.3 -3.0 922.3 1,182.9 1.1
EBITDA Margins (%) 19.1 25.9 22.9 18.9 - 15.7 18.5 -
Adjusted Net Profit 854.7 710.7 595.3 413.9 -6.4 253.0 416.2 0.3
Reported EPS (|) 36.9 42.6 36.0 26.0 - 15.9 26.1 -
Adjusted EPS (|) 54.9 44.6 37.4 26.0 - 15.9 26.1 -
PE (x) 11.0 9.5 11.2 15.6 - 22.7 13.8 -
Target P/E (Diluted) 11.1 9.6 11.4 15.8 - 21.4 13.0 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.6 6.4 6.2 7.5 - 8.7 6.6 -
Price to book (x) 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.2 - 1.0 1.0 -
RoE (%) 17.8 12.7 12.6 7.8 - 4.6 7.0 -
RoCE (%) 14.3 11.7 13.7 9.0 - 6.1 8.6 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • Jubilant Pharmova’s revenues were at | 1452 crore, down 11% YoY. Generics declined 59% YoY to | 178 crore due to 1) lower volumes due to import alert at Roorkee plant, 2) pricing pressure in the US market and 3) lower Remdesivir sales. CDMO segment declined 29% YoY to | 263 crore on high base of Covid sales in Q1FY22. CRDMO (API + Drug Discovery) grew 45% YoY to | 280 crore as Drug Discovery Services revenue increased amid higher demand from Biotech companies for integrated services, functional chemistry and DMPK while APIs revenue grew YoY due to higher volumes. Specialty Pharma grew 14% YoY to | 722 crore driven by Radiopharmaceuticals which recovered from easing of Covid-19 pandemic and Radio pharmacies business witnessed growth due to higher volumes led by recovery from Covid-19 and new products. Allergy immunotherapy continues to operate at volumes higher than pre-Covid levels. EBITDA margins declined 970 bps YoY to 13.3% mainly due to lower profitability in generics and radio-pharmacies segment. EBITDA de-grew 49% YoY to | 192 crore while adjusted PAT declined 71% to | 47 crore
  • Jubilant Pharmova’s revenue growth in Specialty Pharmaceuticals and CRDMO was offset by CDMO Sterile Injectables and Generics. On the generics front, USFDA audited the Roorkee facility (under import alert) and has issued six observations. Generics along with CMO (sterile injectable + APIs) remain challenging on growth front amid high Covid base and compliance issues at manufacturing facilities. In radio-pharmaceutical, ruby-fill installations are on track while the management is working on turnaround plan for radio-pharmacies to reach EBITDA breakeven by FY24. Multiple issues are affecting several business segments and in absence of imminent key triggers, we expect the near to medium term overhang to remain on both revenue growth and profitability

Q1FY23 earnings conference call highlights

  • Jubilant will continue to ramp-up Ruby-Fill installations in radio-pharma business. Radiopharmacy business witnessed growth due to higher volumes as the management indicated at new product launches while turnaround plan is likely to post EBITDA breakeven by FY24
  • In allergy immunotherapy, the management looking to ramp up in the US and expand in non-US markets as well
  • In the CMO business, the management is working to undertake capacity expansion at Spokane, by 100% (one line will be commercialised by FY25 while another by FY27). Another line extension at Montreal facility will come on-stream by FY27. In guidance terms, FY23 revenues is likely to be at pre-Covid levels while growth is likely to come post new capacities
  • In Generics business, the management is looking to resolve USFDA import alert for Roorkee facility. Jubilant is likely to mitigate some risk in generics by increased focus on non-US markets and transfer of products to CMO site
  • In CDMO-APIs, resolution of OAI status for Nanjangud facility remains key while the company works on cost optimisation and debottlenecking work. CDMO-API is undergoing asset replacement programmes for plant upgradation and capacity expansion with volumes expected to normalise in H2FY23
  • Drug discovery services is likely to witness increased traction sequentially as, in general, the first quarter is softer than the fourth. Greater Noida facility is likely to fully ramp up by Q4FY23
  • The company is guiding for capex of | 700-750 crore in FY23 primarily towards expansion in CMO business and enhancement of CRDS capabilities and capacities. Another | 250-300 crore is earmarked for product development expenditure.
Variance Analysis

  Q1FY23 Q1FY22 Q4FY22 YoY (%) QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 1,451.7 1,634.7 1,527.5 -11.2 -5.0   YoY decline due to poor show in CDMO Sterile Injectables and Generics
Raw Material Expenses 387.0 360.6 414.8 7.3 -6.7    
Gross margins (%) 73.3 77.9 72.8 -460 bps 49 bps    
Employee Expenses 529.2 499.2 510.4 6.0 3.7    
Other Expenditure 343.2 370.9 355.1 -7.5 -3.4    
Total Expenditure 1,259.3 1,259.4 1,280.2 0.0 -1.6    
EBITDA 192.4 375.2 247.4 -48.7 -22.2    
EBITDA (%) 13.3 23.0 16.2 -970 bps -294 bps   EBITDA margins Generics: -41%, CRDMO: 16.3%, CDMO Sterile Injectable:50% and Specialty Pharmaceutical:16.2%
Interest 39.9 34.6 39.5 15.3 1.1    
Depreciation 94.6 88.0 100.6 7.4 -5.9    
Other income 11.3 3.9 -3.0 190.7 LP    
 Exceptional Items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0    
PBT after Exceptional Items 69.2 256.5 104.3 -73.0 -33.7    
Tax  22.3 86.0 46.6 -74.1 -52.1    
Tax Rate (%) 32.2 33.5 44.6        
PAT before MI 46.9 170.5 57.8 -72.5 -18.8    
MI -0.3 -0.1 -0.5 NA NA    
Adj. Net Profit 47.0 160.6 59.6 -70.7 -21.0    
Key Metrics              
Generics 178.0 432.0 221.0 -58.8 -19.5   YoY decline due to 1) lower volumes due to import alert at Roorkee plant, 2) pricing pressure in the US market and 3) lower Remdesivir sales 
Specialty Pharma  722.0 632.0 695.0 14.2 3.9   Radiopharmaceuticals business witnessed improvement in sales driven by recovery from easing of Covid-19 pandemic. Radiopharmacies business witnessed growth YoY due to higher volumes led by recovery from Covid-19 and launch of new products. Allergy Immunotherapy continues to operate at volumes higher than pre-Covid levels
CDMO Sterile Injectables 263.0 373.0 288.0 -29.5 -8.7   YoY decline due to higher Covid related business during the previous quarters. Covid related deals of | 70 crore vs. | 220 crore in Q1FY22 and | 11 crore in Q4FY22
CRDMO 280.0 193.0 318.0 45.1 -11.9   Drug Discovery Services revenue increased amid higher demand from Biotech companies for integrated services, functional chemistry and DMPK. Chemistry volume increase supported by the Greater Noida facility. CDMO – API revenue grew YoY due to higher volumes

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