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  • CMP : 223.7 Chg : 2.76 (1.25%)
  • Target : 515.0 (10.99%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

03 Nov 2022

Sharp topline growth, margins remain flat…

About The Stock

Kansai is the global leader in industrial coatings (automotive). However, in the last 10 years, it has increased its decorative paint mix to 55% of its total topline. Currently, Kansai is the third largest decorative paint player in India.

  • Strong distribution network of ~28,000 dealers across the country with 75-80% penetration of tinting machine
  • In the last two years, KNL has increased its total paint manufacturing capacity by 28% to 5.3 lakh tonnes at an investment of ~₹ 1100 crore
Q2FY23 Results

Industrial paints demand drives topline growth

  • Q2 revenue up 19% YoY to ₹ 1814 crore led by higher demand of industrial paints and price hikes. Industrial paint volumes were up by 33% (I-direct est.) on a low base while decorative paint volumes were flat on a YoY basis  
  • Improved product mix and price hikes helped gross margin remain flat on a YoY basis. Despite higher topline growth, EBITDA margin also remained flat on a YoY basis at ~11% due to increase in employee and other expenses
  • PAT up by 19% YoY to ₹ 117.3 crore led by topline growth
What should Investors do?

Kansai’s share price has given negative return over the past five years (from ₹ 495 in November 2017 to ₹ 464 levels in November 2022).

  • We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value Kansai at ₹ 515 i.e. 40x P/E on FY24E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • We believe regaining of lost market share in the decorative paint (~55% of total revenue) will be key trigger for company’s future revenue growth.
  • Revival in passenger vehicle sales and strong demand momentum in industrial paints would help in a recovery in 45% of KNL’s revenue portfolio
  • Focus on improving product mix towards premium products would help drive gross margin, going forward
  • Higher advertisement expenses will keep overall EBITDA margin expansion under check
Alternate Stock Idea

We like Asian Paints in our coverage universe. Asian Paints (APL) is India’s largest decorative paint company. The company derives ~98% revenue from the paints business. Robust b/s with RoCE, RoE of 30%, 25%, respectively

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 3685

Key Financial Summary

| Crore FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5Year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2Year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 5,173.6 4,943.2 4,770.9 5,948.9 8.3 7,317.6 8,162.6 17.1
EBITDA 742.0 781.6 843.5 647.3 -2.4 892.0 1,120.9 31.6
EBITDA Margin (%) 14.3 15.8 17.7 10.9 - 12.2 13.7 -
Net Profit 467.3 535.4 530.6 374.3 -5.8 545.1 696.2 36.4
EPS (|) 8.7 9.9 9.8 6.9 - 10.1 12.9 -
P/E (x) 53.5 46.7 47.1 66.8 - 45.9 35.9 -
Price/Book (x) 7.3 6.6 6.1 6.0 - 6.0 5.4 -
Mcap/Sales (x) 4.8 5.1 5.2 4.2 - 3.4 3.1 -
RoE (%) 13.6 14.1 13.2 9.2 - 13.1 15.1 -
RoCE (%) 20.2 17.5 17.2 12.1 - 17.0 19.9 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q2FY23 Results: Strong demand of industrial paints; while decorative paint volumes remain flat

  • Kansai’s Q2FY23 performance came in lower than our estimates. Revenues were up by 19.3% YoY to ~| 1814.3 crore led by volume growth of ~16% (I-direct est.). Volume growth was driven by industrial paints volume growth of 33% YoY (I-direct est) largely on a favourable base. However, decorative paint volume offtake was flat dragged by unseasonal rains and lower rural demand.
  • On a YoY basis, improved product mix and price increases helped keep gross margin flat. EBITDA margin likewise remained flat on a YoY basis at 11% despite higher topline growth as a result of increase in employee and other expenses.
  • PAT       up by 19% YoY to ~| 117.3 crore, tracking higher sales in Q2FY23

Q2FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

Demand Outlook

  • Decorative Paints Segment:
    • Demand growth in the decorative paints was value led, volume growth remained flat on a YoY basis. Growth in this segment was led by putty and new business in Q2FY23. Excluding ancillary (i.e. ex putty, primer) core paints segment volume offtake was muted.
    • Demand is expected to be subdued in Q3FY23 owing to higher base, extended monsoon (in some regions) and lower rural demand.
    • Kansai has added 3000 new retail outlets YTD in the decorative paints segment. 
    • The company has also started 50 new Next Generation Premium Shoppees which is an experience store and plans to add 25 more Shoppees in FY23. These stores are expected to boost the demand of premium products
    • Introduction of new products has resulted in increased growth in the Premium category. Kansai is also planning to add new products in the premium and super premium category in decorative paints segment
    • New product contribution (which includes water proofing products) to overall topline increased to 6% in Q2FY23 (Vs 5% in Q1FY23)
  • Industrial Paints Segment:
    • Kansai’s topline growth was led by industrial paints as a result of revival in demand of auto industry. Demand from passenger vehicles largely contributed to the topline in Q2FY23
    • According to the management, the company is continuing to gain market share in industrial paints led by high demand from automotive
    • The company is in negotiations with its customers for further price hike in automotive paints
    • Kansai is entering into new markets such as Decal and Alloys in the automotive segment
    • For its performance coatings vertical, the company has received approvals for projects such as Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train and Vande Bharat trains. The company has exited from some of the low margin products and now focusing on high margin products.
    • Under the power coating segment company has added new customers in Q2FY23
    • Going forward, the management expects growth momentum in the passenger vehicle industry and commercial vehicles to sustain. 2-Wheeler segment demand is expected to improve but will remain below pre-covid levels. 
  • Margins:
    • Kansai has taken 3% price hikes in Decorative as well as Industrial paints segment in H1FY23
    • The management expects 2-3% improvement in gross margin in Q4FY23
    • EBITDA margins are expected to improve going forward, however the company is planning higher advertisement expenses in the decorative paints segment due to which such impact in margins may not be visible

Disclaimer

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