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NRI
KNR Constructions Ltd>
  • CMP : 325.2 Chg : -10.75 (-3.20%)
  • Target : 310.0 (19.23%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

14 Aug 2022

Strong execution during the quarter…

About The Stock

KNR Constructions is one of the leading companies in the Roads and Highways sector having executed 6,000+ lane km of projects across 12 states in India. The company also has an established presence in Irrigation and Urban Water Infrastructure Management.

  • Reported 16.3% revenue CAGR over FY17-22 and has consistently delivered industry-leading operating margin of ~20% throughout past 3 years.
  • Prudent management, robust return ratios (RoCE: 20%+)
Q1FY23 Results

KNR delivered strong set of numbers aided by execution pickup

  • Standalone revenue improved 20.4% YoY to ₹ 890.6 crore mainly led by its strong order book position and pick-up in execution
  • EBITDA margin moderated to 18.5% (down 84 bps YoY; still best in the industry). Effectively, EBITDA at ₹ 165 crore, was up 15.1% YoY
  • PAT improved by 38.1% YoY of ₹ 100.8 crore
What should Investors do?

KNR’s share price has grown at 21% CAGR over the past five years (from ~₹ 109 in August 2017 to ~₹ 260 levels in August 2022).

  • While near term execution could be muted owing to irrigation segment payment delays, we expect the same to pick up pace by FY23 end. We maintain our BUY rating on the company
Target Price and Valuation

We value KNR at ₹ 310/share.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • KNR is likely to be one of the prime beneficiaries of roads & water segment
  • Strong order book position, receipt of appointed date in most of its projects, and execution pick-up to translate into 13.4% topline CAGR over FY22-24E
  • While some execution and margin moderation is likely owing to slower irrigation execution; we expect improvement by year end.
  • Asset-light strategy via monetisation to bring-in incremental cash flows
Alternate Stock Idea

Besides KNR, we like G R Infraprojects in the EPC space.

  • Heathy order book position, strong execution and lean balance sheet
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1,690/share

Key Financial Summary

| crore FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 yr CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 yr CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 2,137.3 2,244.2 2,702.6 3,272.6 0.2 3,431.5 4,050.3 0.1
EBITDA 427.0 487.1 535.8 677.7 0.2 634.8 769.6 0.1
EBITDA Margin (%) 20.0 21.7 19.8 20.7 - 18.5 19.0 -
PAT 263.3 225.2 244.2 381.8 0.2 381.9 473.3 0.1
EPS (|) 18.7 16.0 8.7 13.6 - 13.6 16.8 -
P/E (x) 13.0 15.2 28.0 17.9 - 17.9 14.4 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 16.5 14.4 12.5 9.6 - 10.1 8.3 -
RoNW (%) 18.8 14.5 13.7 16.1 - 14.6 15.4 -
RoCE (%) 19.0 19.0 23.4 25.8 - 20.4 21.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key business highlight and outlook

Order book position healthy; execution slowed down with funding issues in irrigation projects

KNR’s order book at the end of Q1 FY23 stood at | 8,585.9 crore, majorly contributed by Roads - HAM (44%), Roads - EPC (30%) and Irrigation (26%) segments. Including L1 position in HAM project worth | 765 crore, its order book position stands healthy at | 9,350.9 crore (2.7x book to TTM revenues). Going forward, the company is targeting minimum order inflows of ~| 3,000 crore during FY23, to be supported by continued traction in roads segment. On the execution front, KNR has reported 20.4% revenue growth in Q1 FY23 (to | 890.6 crore) driven by its healthy order book position and pick-up in execution mainly in HAM projects. Going forward, the company has guided for | 3,500+ crore of revenue during FY23 and targeting 10-15% YoY growth in FY24 (vs | 3,273 crore in FY22) to be aided by elevated level of execution in HAM and EPC projects. However, a) slowed execution pace in irrigation projects due to funding issues at government level and b) early onset of monsoon impacting construction activities to partly impact revenue growth. Further, operating margin has guided to moderate to 16-18% with expected change in project mix and increase in input prices such as Bitumin, Steel, and Cement. In-line with these, we expect company to report 13.4% CAGR during FY22-24E with margin to hover at ~17-18.5%.

 

Debt increased QoQ; dues from irrigation at elevated levels

KNR largely maintain lean balance sheet structure backed by its prudent strategy to mainly focus on an asset light business model and efficient manage working capital. However, its net debt on standalone basis has increased to | 80 crore at Q1 FY23-end (gross debt:| 124.8 crore; vs net debt free status at FY22-end) on account of higher working capital requirement. Going forward, it has total equity requirement of | 1,098.5 crore (| 522 crore already invested till Q1 FY23; | 305 crore estimated to be spent in FY23, | 160 crore in FY24 and balance in FY25) towards already secured HAM projects. Despite these, we expect its debt to remain at minimal levels with healthy operating cash flow generation arising from improved profitability, and better cash flow management. Further, its net working capital at the end of Q1 FY23 improved to 60 days (vs 63, 82 days at FY22-end, FY21-end respectively). However, dues from the irrigation segment continued to remain at an elevated level (~| 850 crore; including unbilled revenues) as of Q1 FY23-end vs. | 650 at FY22-end due to funding issues for various state government. With these, the company has become cautious towards incremental execution and now focusing higher towards clearance of pending bills which would aid its working capital cycle to improve further.

 

Key conference call takeaways

  • Industry Outlook and ordering pipeline: The pace of highway construction during Q1 FY23 slowed down to 22km /day (vs 25km/day in Q1 FY22) mainly impacted by higher input cost and early onset of monsoon. Further, ongoing heavy monsoon period and flood like situations in some places would continue to have influence on the overall construction activities during Q2 FY23. However, pace likely to improve during H2 FY23 with softening in input prices. In terms of awarding, MoRTH has tendered 969 km during Q1 FY23 (vs 1,681 km in Q1 FY22) and likely to award 12,000-13,000 km of road projects during FY23 (as per CRISIL), offering strong order pipeline over next few quarters. Also, MoRTH/NHAI are contemplating to grant ~20% of the bid project cost during the construction period of HAM projects (against current norm of 40%). While this would require additional investments by private developers, the authority would be able bid out more projects with same capital.
  • Order inflow: Order inflows in the recent past has been impacted by a) heightened competition, b) company’s focus on margin protection and c) higher emphasis on projects on southern region. However, the company is targeting minimum order inflows of ~| 3,000 crore during FY23 with higher focus on roads and highways segment. The company may diversify into other infra-related sectors such as railways, metro and mining, and different geographies such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar to keep momentum in inflows.
  • Revenue Breakup: Roads-HAM projects contributed 40% to the overall Q1 FY23 revenue followed by irrigations projects (35%), Roads-EPC (20%) and back-to-back contracts (5%). However, mix likely to change in upcoming quarters with slowed down construction pace in irrigation jobs.
  • Under-construction HAM projects: As on Q1 FY23-end, the physical progress on KNR’s 5 under-construction HAM projects stands at: a) Trichy-Kallagam: 100%, b) Chittor-Mallavaram: 100%, c) Ramsanpalle-Mangloor: 100%, d) Magadi-Somwarpeth: 59.1% and e) Oddanchatram-Madathukulam: 68.3%.
  • Newly secured HAM projects: KNR has received appointed date for two HAM projects namely a) Ramanattukara to Valanchery and b) Valanchery to Kappirikkad on 21st January’22. The physical progess as on Q1-FY23 end stands at 5.6% and 6.4% respectively. The management expects ~40% physical progress in these two projects by FY23-end (would have been better; but impacted by early onset of monsoon period). Further, the company has signed Concession Agreement for Chittoor – Thatchur section (Package-3) on 17th November’21 and has achieved financial closure on 30th March’22. The project is facing delays in land acquisition (50% available currently; 80% expected by Sept’22-end). Receipt of appointed date likely by Dec’22
  • Irrigation projects: KNR has slowed down execution pace at its existing irrigation jobs due to major payment issues from state government (outstanding dues: ~| 850 crore at Q1 FY23 end). The company has been communicated regarding partial payment over next 2-3 months. However, it has become cautious towards incremental execution and currently focusing higher towards clearance of pending bills. Additionally, heavy rainy season is currently impacting the execution pace.
  • Deal with Cube Highways: KNR has transferred its 49% stake in KNR Tirumala Infra Pvt. Ltd. and KNR Shankarampet Projects Pvt. Ltd. to Cube Highways for a value of | 136.8 crore and | 108.5 crore respectively. Additionally, the company expects to transfer its 100% stake in KNR Srirangam Infra Pvt Ltd in the near term. Overall, the company expects to receive | 200-220 crore from the sale going ahead.
  • Income tax matter: The Income-Tax (IT) Department had carried out a search operation at the Companys various business premises in March’22. The company has extended full cooperation to the IT officials during the search. As on the date, the company has not received any formal communication from the IT department. However, it is known that the search team from IT department is preparing “appraisal report” which is likely to pass on to the central circle (responsible to investigate the matter ahead). If some demand arises from the circle team after the examination, the company have option to challenge it. However, the management is currently of the view that this will not have any impact on the companys financial position and hence no provision for any liability has been recognised till now.
  • Debt and debt position: Standalone gross debt at the end of Q1 FY23 has increased to | 124.8 crore vs nil at FY22-end). Also, the company holds cash and cash equivalent of | 45 crore. The increase in debt is mainly due to higher working capital requirement as company’s irrigation segment is suffering from payment issues (from state government). However, the management expects KNR to attain net debt free position by FY23-end with considerable decline in pending dues with clearance of bills.
  • Capex: KNR has incurred capex of ~| 60 crore during Q1 FY23. However, the management has guided for moderated level of overall capex to the tune of | 120-150 crore in FY23 (vs | 200+ crore in FY22) with no major machinery to be added in the irrigation segment.

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