loader2
Partner With Us NRI
Lemon Tree Hotels Ltd>
  • CMP : 144.2 Chg : 1.72 (1.21%)
  • Target : 95.0 (21.79%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

14 Feb 2023

Lean cost structure, room expansion to drive growth

About The Stock

Promoted by Patanjali Keswani, Lemon Tree is the largest hotel chain in the mid-priced segment in India. It operates 8,489 rooms in 87 hotels across 54 destinations in India and abroad under brands like Aurika (premium), Lemon Tree premier, Lemon Tree (midscale), RedFox (economy) and Keys.

  • The favourable location of its properties in prominent business and tourist districts supports revenue growth prospects and reduces concentration risk
  • Post completion of expansion, LTHL will be operating ~10,462 rooms in 105 hotels across 64 destinations, in India and abroad by FY24E
Q3FY23 Results:

Lemon tree’s Q3FY23 performance remained ahead of our estimates bolstered by strong room rates and focus on cost optimisation.

  • Revenues grew 62.6% YoY to ₹ 233.5 crore (up 18.7% QoQ). They were also up 17% from pre-Covid levels (i.e. Q3FY20)
  • On an absolute basis, operating costs were down 10% from pre-Covid levels This led to a sharp margin expansion of ~1348 bps to 54.2% (vs. our estimate of 49%) from pre-Covid levels
  • PAT improved to ₹ 48.3 crore in Q3FY23 vs. net loss of ₹ 5.2 crore last year and net profit of ₹ 11.1 crore during Q3FY20
What should Investors do?

The company remains a key branded player in the high growing mid-scale segment.

  • We maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value the company at ₹ 95/share on an SOTP basis (i.e. implied value at 19x FY24E EV/EBITDA).

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Revival in foreign tourists, wedding season, G20 summit 2023 to provide further fillip to leisure and business hotel room demand, going forward
  • Well positioned to capture the unorganised market share due to slowdown in the upcoming room supply in the wake of ongoing distress
  • Mumbai hotel property (669 rooms i.e. 13% of owned/leased rooms) to get commissioned by Q3FY24E
  • LTHL’s large asset base, strategic partnership, and financial flexibility to continue support liquidity requirement for further growth
Alternate Stock Idea:

Apart from Lemon Tree, in hotels coverage we like Indian Hotels Company.

  • Key player with higher presence in the business & leisure destinations
  • Maintain BUY with a target price of ₹ 390/share

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 3 Year CAGR (%) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (%)
Sales 549.5 669.4 251.7 402.2 -10.0 854.6 1,015.2 58.9
EBITDA 168.8 238.3 61.3 118.7 -11.0 412.7 475.1 100.1
EBITDA (%) 30.7 35.6 24.3 29.5 - 48.3 46.8 -
PAT after MI 52.9 -9.5 -127.0 -87.4
EPS (|) 0.7 -0.1 -1.6 -1.1 - 1.1 1.4 -
EV/EBITDA 43.3 32.4 125.1 65.7 - 18.7 16.3 -
RoNW 6.7 -1.5 -21.4 -15.7 - 12.8 15.2 -
RoCE 5.5 5.5 -0.7 1.0 - 9.1 9.5 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q3FY23 Results: First normal quarter post pandemic

  • Average occupancy improved further by 140 bps QoQ to 67.6% on full inventory basis. Gross ARR also increased ~17% QoQ to | 5738/room. This led to QoQ RevPAR growth of 24% to | 3879/room
  • ARR was up 24% while occupancy levels were still down 370 bps vs. pre-Covid levels. Overall, RevPAR was up ~17% vs. pre-Covid levels
  • Total operating cost was down significantly from 59% of sales in Q3FY20 (pre-Covid) to 46% of sales in Q3FY23. On an absolute basis, operating costs were down 10% from pre-Covid levels. This led to a sharp margin expansion of ~1348 bps to 54.2% (vs. our estimate of 49%) from pre-Covid levels. It was up 656 bps sequentially
  •               The company has further expanded its presence with the signing of seven new hotels in the cities of Thekkady, Haridwar, Jamshedpur, Dehradun, Chandausi, Banswara and Tejpur. It operationalized three hotels in this quarter viz. Lemon Tree Hotel in Kalina Mumbai, Lemon Tree Hotel in Mukteshwar and Keys Lite by Lemon Tree Hotels in Vishakhapatnam

Q3FY23 – Other key highlights

  • In terms of city-wise performance, occupancy across all major cities excluding Mumbai & Pune were lower vs. pre-Covid levels. However, Mumbai & Pune did exceedingly well. Both registered an increase of 1684 bps & 199 bps in occupancy from pre-Covid levels
  • Aurika Udaipur registered average occupancy of 53% with average room rate of | 17,102 for Q3. With likely rebound in foreign tourists, the premium segment is likely to witness healthy demand in 2023 as well
  • The company garnered management fee of | 25.1 crore during 9MFY23 (up 94% YoY). The same is likely to increase to | 35 crore for FY23E. In FY24E, the company is likely to generate a management fee of ~| 50 crore (~50% growth guidance), which would again scale-up to | 100 crore over the next two to three years thereafter
  • The current employee count has reduced from 0.95/room to 0.62/room. Further, with the adoption of more technology in day to day operations, we expect the operating margin to scale up over 48% (highest in the industry)
  • The company plans to add 738 rooms (669 rooms in Mumbai, 69 rooms in Shimla) over the next two years with total capex of | 1006 crore. The company has spent | 509 crore. We expect Aurika Mumbai to get launched during October-November 2023
  • The company is also adding ~2051 rooms under management contract. The share of managed rooms to increase from current 40% to ~50% by 2025
  • Gross debt is currently at | 1670 crore (broadly flat YoY) with cost of debt at 8.65% (up 65 bps QoQ)

Performance set to improve sharply in stabilised environment…

With the economy coming out of pandemic induced pain, the hotel business has recovered fully in terms of RevPAR. As the companies are adopting ARR led growth strategy, we now model occupancy of 71%, 75% for FY23E, FY24E, respectively, vs. 78%, 81% projected earlier. ARR is now expected to remain stable. However, with addition of rooms in Mumbai, we assume ARR growth of 12% on a blended basis. LTH has taken measures to curtail costs, by taking salary cuts, re-negotiating contracts, reducing repairs costs, reduction in power costs, ad, etc. With some of these measures being sustainable, we model EBITDA margins of 48.3%, 46.8% in FY23E, FY24E vs. 29.5% in FY22 while the company has given EBITDA margin guidance of 50%+. At the PAT level, we expect the company to report PAT of | 112.3 crore in FY24E.

 

Valuation & Outlook

Being the largest branded hotel player in the mid segment, the company is expected to be a key beneficiary of a sharp demand revival. We expect it to continue to gain market share due to its strong positioning across all major cities. While we expect revenue & EBITDA CAGR of 59% and 100% during FY22-24E on lower base of FY22, we expect the growth tempo to stay strong beyond FY24 as well on commissioning of Mumbai property. We maintain BUY rating with a revised target price of | 95 per share (SOTP based valuation, i.e. implied EV multiple of 25x FY24E EBITDA).

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Rashesh Shah (CA), Cheragh Sidhwa (MBA) Research Analyst, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products.

ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.

 

ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities and its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives are generally prohibited from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.

 

Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stocks price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing on a companys fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports.

 

Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.

 

ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Retail Research. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the Institutional Research.

 

The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances.

 

This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months.

 

ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report.

 

Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.

 

ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report.

 

Since associates of ICICI Securities and ICICI Securities as a entity are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or actual/beneficial ownership of one percent or more or other material conflict of interest various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report.

 

ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.

 

Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report.

 

We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities.

 

This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

 

RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5% to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

research@icicidirect.com

Read More