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NRI
Mindtree Ltd>
  • CMP : 3,429.4 Chg : 0.40 (0.01%)
  • Target : 4,000.0 (18.52%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

14 Oct 2022

Merger with LTI in final leg of regulatory approval…

About The Stock

 

Mindtree Ltd (Mindtree) is a mid-tier IT company with a presence in the US, Europe & RoW catering to BFSI, communication media & technology, retail & travel.

  • Expertise in infrastructure & application catering to Global 2000 clients
  • Dividend leading margins (>20%) compared to mid-tier IT companies
Q2FY23 Results:

 

Mindtree reported strong numbers.

  • CC revenue growth was strong at 7.2% QoQ, a seventh consecutive quarter of 5%+ CC QoQ growth
  • EBITDA margins declined 60 bps QoQ to 20.5% due to wage hike
  • Second consecutive quarter of US$500 mn+ TCV
What should Investors do?

Mindtree’s share price has grown by ~6.9x over the past five years (from ~₹ 484 in October 2017 to ~₹ 3,375 levels in October 2022).

  • We maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value Mindtree at ₹ 4000 i.e. 25x P/E on FY25E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Traction in multi-year deals client mining, scaling up and cross-selling to existing clients keeps TCV strong
  • Strong margin performance due to flattening of the pyramid
  • Recovery in travel segment with revenue back to pre Covid levels
  • With a robust deal pipeline, we expect the company to post industry leading 19.6% CAGR from FY22-25E
Alternate Stock Idea:

Besides Mindtree, in our IT coverage we also like Infosys.

  • Key beneficiary of improved digital demand, industry leading revenue growth and healthy capital allocation prompt us to be positive
  •  BUY with a target price of ₹ 1,670

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR (FY22-25E)
Net Sales 7,764.3 7,967.8 10,525.3 15.0 13,518.9 15,989.4 18,022.7 19.6
EBITDA 1,062.3 1,656.7 2,195.6 25.5 2,811.9 3,341.8 3,784.8 19.9
EBITDA Margins (%) 13.7 20.8 20.9 - 20.8 20.9 21.0 -
Net Profit 630.9 1,110.5 1,652.9 31.6 1,967.8 2,344.3 2,634.5 16.8
EPS (|) 38.3 67.4 100.3 - 119.2 142.0 159.6 -
P/E 89.5 50.9 34.2 - 28.8 24.2 21.5 -
RoNW (%) 20.0 25.7 30.2 - 29.3 28.6 26.8 -
RoCE (%) 23.0 32.5 38.0 - 37.9 37.1 35.0 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • The company reported constant currency growth of 7.2% QoQ. It is the seventh consecutive quarter of 5%+ CC growth on a QoQ basis. Dollar revenue grew 5.7% QoQ to US$422.1 million (mn). In rupee terms, revenue grew 8.9% QoQ to | 3,400 crore
  •  In terms of geographies, growth in revenue was led by North America (78% of mix), which grew 7.5% QoQ, which more or less covered de-growth in Continental Europe market in the tune of 9.1%. QoQ. UK market (6.6% mix) and APAC regions (8.5% mix) grew 3.2% and 5% QoQ, respectively
  • Vertical wise, growth was driven by technology, media & services (43% mix), which was up 4.3% QoQ and BFSI (19.4% mix) was up by 10.2% QoQ. Travel & hospitality (15.9% mix) also reported strong growth of 8.8% QoQ while RCM, as expected, reported decline of 0.8% QoQ (ex-currency impact, RCM was up 2.9% QoQ). Healthcare, its newest vertical (2.6% mix), grew 35% QoQ (base effect)
  • EBITDA grew 6.9% QoQ to | 696.7 crore while EBITDA margins declined sequentially by ~60 bps to 20.5%. Reported margins were 21% (adjusted for forex losses), which were down 10 bps QoQ. Headwinds for EBITDA margins were i) -240 bps wage hike for the quarter, which were mitigated by following tailwinds i) +110 bps impact of merger related costs, which was already factored in Q1, ii) +50 bps currency benefits, iii) + 70bps operating efficiency. The company maintained 20% + EBITDA margin guidance for FY23 despite some impact of furlough in Q3 and Q4
  • The company indicated that it had not witnessed any deal cancellations or deferral from the client side. However, decision making has been on the slower side. The company indicated that demand continued to be strong. As per the company, client tech spending was earlier being done on revenue maximisation programs. Now, due to high inflation scenario, client tech spends are also being done on cost optimisation programs. The company mentioned that since it is playing on both sides of demand, its TCV continues to be healthy. The company mentioned that clients in the same sector may behave differently as they would be at different stages of digital transformation programs. Hence, there is ample opportunity ahead; both in terms of revenue as well as cost optimisation programs
  • The company indicated its strong growth of 10.2% QoQ in BFSI vertical was balanced across new as well as existing clients. It also indicated that BFSI vertical strong growth in the last few quarters could be attributed to transformation journey it had started a couple of years back. The company did some business restructuring in these verticals. It also initiated partnerships with various product companies and also invested in talent specially into client facing role, which is bearing fruit now
  • On travel costs, which have come down QoQ in this quarter, the company mentioned that it will not return to pre-Covid levels. It also indicated that since markets are open now, due to a competitive scenario where you have to continue meeting clients, some travel costs are likely to increase, going forward. It also mentioned that due to increased airfares as well as hotel tariffs, the trend is likely upward.
  • On facility expenses, the company mentioned that it is expected to see some uptrend, going forward but mentioned that work from office continued to be in a staggered manner as per plan so as to avoid any bump up in facility expenses in one particular quarter
  • Mindtree indicated that fresher hiring continued to be strong and the company continued to deploy large portion of freshers into CMT, TTH verticals and also in fixed price contracts. The company indicated they are able to deploy 70% of freshers after 45 days of training
  •  Mindtree has been reporting a record order book as it crossed US$1 bn in H1. The company did mention that TCV is a good mix of efficiency and revenue maximisation program deals. Lately it is skewed towards later. The company also indicated that it closed a few multi-year deals in the last two quarters resulting into such a strong TCV. It also mentioned that average tenure of the deals has not changed materially as it is good mix of short term deals (12-18 months) as well as long term deals. The company also observed that clients who were going for transformation programs in the last two quarters are now also opting for efficiency led deals (longer tenure)
  • On pricing, the company indicated that it is getting price hikes in a few pockets and for niche skills like AI/ML, cloud, etc. Mindtree also indicated that it is not facing any pricing pressure from its clients and continues to push for a further price increase
  • The company also indicated that it is in the final leg of approval as far as its merger with LTI is concerned and expects the merger to conclude at the end of CY22 vs. earlier indication of Q4FY23. Mindtree also indicated that steering committee has made a detailed plan on functioning of merged entity which will be shared later. The company also indicated that talent hiring, going forward, will be done as per the requirement of the merged entity. Mindtree sees a lot of cross sale and upscale opportunity for the merged entity as out of 700 clients of LTI Mindtree, only handful clients are common between them
  • The company is witnessing early signs of moderation of LTM attrition and attrition is expected to be trending downward, going forward. As far as client’s tech budgets are concerned, the company indicated that it will be in a better position to assess the demand in Q3FY23 or at the end of CY22
 
Variance Analysis
 
   Q2FY23   Q2FY23E   Q2FY22   YoY (%)   Q1FY23   QoQ (%)  Comments
Revenue 3,400.4 3,313.9 2,586.2 31.5 3,121.1 8.9 Seventh consecutive quarter of 5%+ CC revenue growth 
Employee expenses 2,047.4 2,021.5 1,564.4 30.9 1,853.6 10.5  
               
Gross Margin 1,353.0 1,292.4 1,021.8 32.4 1,267.5 6.7  
Gross margin (%) 39.8 39.0 39.5 28 bps 40.6 -82 bps  
SG&A expenses 656.3 636.3 491.1 33.6 609.4 7.7  
               
EBITDA 696.7 656.1 530.7 31.3 658.1 5.9  
EBITDA Margin (%) 20.5 19.8 20.5 -3 bps 21.1 -60 bps EBITDA margins adjusted forex loss was down 10 bps impacted by headwinds of -240 bps wage hike for the quarter, which were mitigated by following tailwinds of i)+110 bps impact of merger related costs which was already factored in Q1 ii) +50 bps currency benefits iii) + 70bps operating efficiency
Depreciation 65.1 63.0 61.0 6.7 59.9 8.7  
EBIT 631.6 593.2 469.7 34.5 598.2 5.6  
EBIT Margin (%) 18.6 17.9 18.2 41 bps 19.2 -59 bps  
Other income 48.6 40.0 74.8 -35.0 39.5 23.0  
PBT 666.7 621.2 532.0 25.3 625.5 6.6  
Tax paid 158.0 162.2 133.1 18.7 153.9 2.7  
PAT 508.7 459.0 398.9 27.5 471.6 7.9  

Disclaimer

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pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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