Core generation growth surprises in seasonally weak quarter. sets aggressive renewable capacity addition targets over next three years
Q4FY23 Earnings Summary
Revenue from operations for the quarter increased to Rs 41317.9.0 crore; higher than our estimate of Rs 38897 crore. From a operational perspective, gross generation and energy sold stood at 89.7 billion units (BU’s) and 77.8 BU’s which were higher than our estimates of 83.9 BU’s and 77.8 BU’s. However, tariff came in at Rs4.95 per unit (expected at Rs5/unit) led to rise in revenues. The company as of FY23 has a installed and commercial capacity of 56368 MW each whereas group level capacity stands at 72254 MW
PLFs or load factor for Q4FY23 stood at 80.3% vs 68.9% in Q3FY23. The same for the gas stations was at 1.7% for the quarter. The company received coal supplies to the tune of ~58 million tonne out of which ~3 million tonnes was from imported sources. For FY23, the coal from imported sources was at 14 million tonne
The company has set out an aggressive capacity addition of 16000 MW over FY24-FY26 on the renewable side most of which will be on the solar side whereas wind capacity will be to the tune of 4000-5000 MW. NTPC has 3300 MW of operational capacity while 4600 MW of projects are under construction and projects to the tune of 12600 MW are at various stages of planning ( PPA singed/ Projects bid won)
EBITDA came in at Rs 11109.5 crore. Lower finance costs at 2581.7 crore also aided PAT along with strong operational performance. Consequently PAT came in at Rs 5672.3 crore vs. our estimate of Rs5237 crore
The company has declared Rs 7.25/share as total dividend for FY23 which includes an interim dividend of Rs4.75/share during Q3YF23
ICICIdirect Research view on NTPC Ltd Stock
View: With strong focus on alternate energy spectrum and aggressive renewable capacity addition over FY24-FY26 , we believe NTPC may be able to break the underperformance of the last decade and witness a rerating coupled with monetisation of the renewable energy arm in the medium term
Impact: Positive
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