Page Industries is the exclusive licensee of Jockey international brand and is the market leader in the premium innerwear and leisurewear category. The brand is distributed in 2,895+ cities & towns and available in 118838+ MBOs and 1191+ EBOs. It sold ~ 190 million pieces in FY22.
Page reported a subdued operational performance wherein revenues and profitability were below our estimates. Gross margin declined 86 bps YoY to 52.4% but EBITDA margin declined 532 bps YoY to 15.8% (significantly lower than normally guided band of 19-21%) owing to negative operating leverage.
Page’s share price has grown at 12% CAGR in the past five years but the stock price has been under pressure over the last three months and declined more than 25%. Due to rich valuations (58x FY24E) and moderate growth outlook (owing to increased competitive intensity), we believe the stock price does not offer upside.
We value Page at ₹ 37550 i.e. 55x FY24E EPS.
Apart from Page, we also like Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail.
Particulars | FY19 | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | 5 Year CAGR (FY17-22) | FY23E | FY24E | 2 Year CAGR (FY22-24E) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Sales | 2,852.2 | 2,945.4 | 2,833.0 | 3,886.5 | 12.7 | 5,056.0 | 5,663.1 | 20.7 |
EBITDA | 617.0 | 532.6 | 526.6 | 785.5 | 14.0 | 930.8 | 1,134.2 | 20.2 |
PAT | 394.0 | 343.2 | 340.6 | 536.5 | 15.0 | 618.7 | 761.5 | 19.1 |
P/E (x) | 110.4 | 126.7 | 127.7 | 81.1 | - | 70.3 | 57.1 | - |
EV/Sales (x) | 15.3 | 14.7 | 15.2 | 11.1 | - | 8.6 | 7.6 | - |
EV/EBITDA (x) | 70.6 | 81.5 | 81.8 | 55.0 | - | 46.6 | 38.1 | - |
RoCE (%) | 69.1 | 55.7 | 52.4 | 66.1 | - | 60.4 | 59.6 | - |
RoE (%) | 50.8 | 41.9 | 38.5 | 49.3 | - | 45.3 | 44.5 | - |
Q3FY23 Earnings conference call highlights:
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Pankaj Pandey |
Head – Research |
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