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NRI
Page Industries Ltd>
  • CMP : 48,856.4 Chg : -316.70 (-0.64%)
  • Target : 37,550.0 (-3.72%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

10 Feb 2023

Muted volumes – cause for concern

About The Stock

Page Industries is the exclusive licensee of Jockey international brand and is the market leader in the premium innerwear and leisurewear category. The brand is distributed in 2,895+ cities & towns and available in 118838+ MBOs and 1191+ EBOs. It sold ~ 190 million pieces in FY22.

  • Strong backward integration facilities having capacity of 260 million pieces
  • Robust business model generating 66%+ RoCE, delivering consistent EBITDA margins of 20%+ and having debt free b/s
Q3FY23 Results:

Page reported a subdued operational performance wherein revenues and profitability were below our estimates. Gross margin declined 86 bps YoY to 52.4% but EBITDA margin declined 532 bps YoY to 15.8% (significantly lower than normally guided band of 19-21%) owing to negative operating leverage.

  • Revenue for Q3FY23 grew 3% YoY to ₹ 1223 crore. Growth was mainly realisation led, which increased 15% YoY to ₹ 232/piece. Volume de-grew 11% YoY to 52.8 million pieces due to subdued demand in athleisure
  • Under-absorption of fixed overheads, accelerated spends towards marketing expenses impacted EBITDA margin. Hence, EBITDA declined 23% YoY to ₹ 193 crore. Ensuing PAT de-grew 29% YoY to ₹ 123.7 crore
What should Investors do?

Page’s share price has grown at 12% CAGR in the past five years but the stock price has been under pressure over the last three months and declined more than 25%. Due to rich valuations (58x FY24E) and moderate growth outlook (owing to increased competitive intensity), we believe the stock price does not offer upside.

  • We maintain HOLD recommendation on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value Page at ₹ 37550 i.e. 55x FY24E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • New initiatives (focus on kids wear segment, new launches in athleisure/women wear and thrust on increasing penetration in rural areas) to drive sales and earnings growth
  • Significantly accelerated its distribution touchpoints (added 32548 outlets in FY22) to 118123+ MBOs and 1191+ EBO stores
  • To further penetrate the untapped markets of tier III/IV cities, it has launched a bouquet of products catering to these markets. The company aims to reach sales of US$1 billion by FY26 (CAGR: ~18%). We build in revenue, earning CAGR of 21%, 19%, respectively, in FY22-24E
Alternate Stock Idea:

Apart from Page, we also like Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail.

  • ABFRL has charted out growth strategies to become a ~US$2.8 billion entity (₹ 21000 crore) by FY26E, translating to 15% CAGR in FY20-26E
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 340/share

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 2,852.2 2,945.4 2,833.0 3,886.5 12.7 5,056.0 5,663.1 20.7
EBITDA 617.0 532.6 526.6 785.5 14.0 930.8 1,134.2 20.2
PAT 394.0 343.2 340.6 536.5 15.0 618.7 761.5 19.1
P/E (x) 110.4 126.7 127.7 81.1 - 70.3 57.1 -
EV/Sales (x) 15.3 14.7 15.2 11.1 - 8.6 7.6 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 70.6 81.5 81.8 55.0 - 46.6 38.1 -
RoCE (%) 69.1 55.7 52.4 66.1 - 60.4 59.6 -
RoE (%) 50.8 41.9 38.5 49.3 - 45.3 44.5 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • Revenue for the quarter grew 3% YoY to | 1223.0 crore (I-direct estimate:
    | 1282.6 crore, three-year CAGR: 15%). The growth was mainly realisation led, which increased by 15% YoY to | 232/piece. Volume de-grew 11% YoY to 52.8 million pieces. The management indicated that the market was not as buoyant as expected, which negatively impacted the volume growth. Further, Page has rolled out Auto Replenishment System (ARS) across its distributors, which also resulted in lower sales. Men’s segment grew in double digits while growth in Athleisure has moderated. The company continued to enhance its distribution touchpoints wherein it added 715 taking the total count to 118838 touchpoints (~2x vs. pre-Covid levels). Page also added 37 new exclusive outlets taking the total count to 1228+ EBOs (97 outlets added in 9MFY23)
  • Owing to higher raw material cost (cotton yarn), gross margins declined 86 bps to 52.4% (I-direct estimate: 56%). Further, owing to negative operative leverage, employee expense to sales ratio increased 159 bps YoY to 17.6% and other expense to sales ratio increased 287 bps YoY to 19.1%, which led to EBITDA margin declining by 532 bps YoY to 15.8% (lowest margin in the last six quarters). Subsequently, EBITDA de-grew 23% YoY to | 193 crore (I-direct estimate: | 250 crore)
  • The company continues to invest in building capacity and warehouses with a planned capex of | 250-300 crore in FY23 as it believes that its products have huge growth potential. It wants to be ready to capture the long term opportunity. Accelerated distribution touchpoints with higher focus on tier III/IV regions and growth opportunity in segments such as athleisure and Jockey Kids & women would be key growth drivers, going forward. We reduce our estimates and bake in revenue and earnings CAGR of 21% and 19%, respectively, in FY22-24E

Q3FY23 Earnings conference call highlights:

  • The company highlighted that it has rolled out the ARS system for its distributors and MBO channel to have a better understanding of the underlying demand. The rollout of ARS negatively impacted the revenue growth in Q3FY23. Though most of the ARS rollout is done, the management indicated that some portion was remaining. The same should be completed by the end of February 2023
  • On the EBO addition front, the company added 97 EBOs in 9MFY23 (37 in Q3FY23) with total EBOs now at 1228 outlets present in 415 cities. Another channel that the company has been focusing on is large format stores. The company is now present with 24 LFS partners with a presence in 2967 stores
  • The management highlighted that it was spending on capacity building and enhancing supply chain capabilities (investment in warehouse) as it believes that its products have huge growth potential. It wants to be ready to capture the long term opportunity
  • The management has not yet decided about further price hike and would take a decision based on the input cost and competition in the market
  • The company is currently carrying higher inventory (~3.5 months) vs. two months in the corresponding quarter. The management is aiming to bring down the inventory to ~ two and a half months, going ahead
  • Premium products have not been witnessing slackness and have performed better than lower priced categories
  • Advertisement expenses have been higher than usual. The company expects to maintain higher spend in advertising to enhance brand visibility.

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Bharat Chhoda, MBA, Cheragh Sidhwa, MBA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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