Rainbow Children’s Medicare (RCML) is a leading chain of paediatric multi-speciality and perinatal hospitals in India, operating 16 hospitals and
three clinics in six cities, with a total bed capacity of 1,655 beds.
• Paediatric: Perinatal revenues break-up- 70:30
• Revenue, EBITDA grew at CAGR of 21.3%, 24.2%, respectively, in FY19-23
• Healthy return ratios with last three-year’s average RoE, RoCE of 15.1%,
15.2%, respectively
• RCML registered blended ARPOB of ₹ 48,932 with occupancy at 55.40% and
ALOS at 2.76 days for FY23
Significant beat across all parameters.
• Rainbow Childrens revenue grew 3.4% QoQ to ₹ 317 crore led by
occupancy levels in matured hospitals, which reached 67.18%
• EBITDA de-grew 8.2 % to ₹ 98 crore
• PAT came in at ₹ 53.6 crore
RCML’s share price grew by 92% since listing.
• We downgrade from BUY to HOLD as current price more or less factors in the FY25 earnings based on our estimates
We value RCML at 19x FY25E EV/EBITDA to arrive at a target price of ₹ 900.
• Expertise in the most case-sensitive healthcare cohort that is paediatric and
perinatal care encompassing areas like neurology, nephrology, oncology
and cardiology among others
• Following of hub & spoke model approach for expansion in new areas to aid
growth, accessibility for patients
• Progress on Gurugram greenfield expansion of ₹ 450 crore
• Progress and profitability of new hospitals in Hyderabad, Bangalore, New
Delhi among others
Apart from RCML, in our hospital coverage we like Narayana.
• Narayana operates a dual model, which perfectly blends established ‘’assetright’’ India business with a hospital in Cayman Islands
• BUY with a target price of ₹ 870
Particulars | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | 3 year CAGR_(FY19-22) | FY23 | FY24E | FY25E | 2 year CAGR_(FY23-25E) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenues | 719.4 | 650.0 | 973.8 | 21.5 | 1,173.6 | 1,352.0 | 1,600.6 | 16.8 |
EBITDA | 197.0 | 162.8 | 304.9 | 27.1 | 352.1 | 378.5 | 448.2 | 12.8 |
EBITDA margins (%) | 27.4 | 25.0 | 31.3 | - | 30.0 | 28.0 | 28.0 | - |
Net Profit | 55.5 | 38.3 | 138.3 | 45.8 | 210.8 | 194.8 | 204.9 | -1.4 |
EPS (|) | 5.5 | 3.8 | 13.6 | - | 20.8 | 19.2 | 20.2 | - |
PE (x) | 159.2 | 230.5 | 63.9 | - | 41.9 | 45.3 | 43.1 | - |
EV to EBITDA (x) | 46.8 | 56.8 | 30.3 | - | 26.4 | 24.6 | 20.9 | - |
RoCE (%) | 15.1 | 10.3 | 20.2 | - | 17.8 | 14.5 | 16.5 | - |
ROE | 13.7 | 8.6 | 22.9 | - | 19.9 | 15.5 | 14.0 | - |
Q4FY23 Results: Significant beat across all estimates
• RCML’s revenue grew 3.4% QoQ to | 317 crore. Momentum continued across all key operating metrics including outpatient footfalls, inpatient volumes and occupancy. Occupancy levels in matured hospitals, which touched 67.18% in Q4FY23 against 63.32% in Q4FY22. On the operational front, EBITDA de-grew 8.2% QoQ to | 98 crore whereas margins were impacted by 392 bps to 30.9%. PAT came at | 53.6 crore during the quarter.
• Overall, there was a significant beat vis-à-vis I-direct estimate, which was attributable to higher-than-expected occupancy in matured hospitals (greater than five years). Typically, the occupancy in Q4 remains lower but has shown an improvement as a positive surprise. We remain positive on the companys focused approach of catering to paediatric and perinatal cohort of hospitals vertical
Q4FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights:
▪ The strong performance was on the back of more than anticipated outbreak of Adenovirus (viral) infections (causing pneumonia) leading to higher occupancy levels
▪ Moreover, the performance was a blend of both higher volumes as well as improving case mix
▪ The category mix remains at 70% paediatric and 30% perinatal services
▪ The payor mix remains at 50:50 between cash and insurance
▪ Matured hospitals are likely to experience similar occupancy levels in the near future
▪ The entire benefit of insurance price hike is likely to reflect in FY24
▪ The management expects ARPOB to grow at 7-8% considering case mix and inflationary measures
▪ The cost of consumables to account for 14-15% of expenses whereas repair and maintenance cost to hover around 2.5% of costs
▪ The 100-bed hospital in Hyderabad and the 55-bed hospital in Chennais Sholinganallur (OMR) have both seen significant growth during the quarter and are proceeding in the expected manner
▪ The management has guided for additional 270 beds in FY24 in the southern region of India whereas additional 160 bed capacity for FY25
▪ The second part of the current fiscal year is when most project work of hospitals are anticipated to begin operations
▪ It has proposed greenfield capacity addition (~300 beds in sector 44 and ~100 beds in sector 56) with an approximate capex of ₹ 450 crore to strengthen its network in NCR. The cost per bed is likely to touch ~1.25 crore including land parcel
▪ The hospitals in Hyderabad region achieved EBITDA positive much faster due to their strong established presence whereas other regions attained 30% occupancy levels or within 12-18 months of operational performance whichever is earlier
RATING RATIONALE
ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock
Buy: >15%
Hold: -5% to 15%;
Reduce: -15% to -5%;
Sell: <-15%
Pankaj Pandey |
Head – Research |
pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com |
|
ICICI Direct Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, Third Floor, Brillanto House, Road No 13, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai – 400 093 |
|
|
research@icicidirect.com |
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
I/We, Siddhant Khandekar -Inter CA, Kushal Shah -CFA L1, CFP, Utkarsh Jain -MBA,Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.
Terms & conditions and other disclosures:
ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products.of financial products.
ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. Registered Office Address: ICICI Venture House, Appasaheb Marathe Marg, Prabhadevi, Mumbai - 400 025. CIN: L67120MH1995PLC086241, Tel: (91 22) 6807 7100. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.
Investments in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.
Registration granted by Sebi and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. None of the research recommendations promise or guarantee any assured, minimum or risk-free return to the investors.
Name of the Compliance officer (Research Analyst): Mr. Anoop Goyal Contact number: 022-40701000 E-mail Address: complianceofficer@icicisecurities.com
ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities and its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives are generally prohibited from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.
Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stocks price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing on a companys fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports.
Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.
ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Retail Research. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the Institutional Research.
The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances.
This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice.
ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated bythe subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.
ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.
ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months.
ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third partyin connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report.
Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.
ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report.
Since associates of ICICI Securities and ICICI Securities as a entity are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or actual/ beneficial ownership of one percent or more or other material conflict of interest various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report.
ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.
Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report.
We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities.
This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.