Reliance Industries (RIL) is one of India’s biggest conglomerates with a presence in oil refining & marketing and petrochemicals, oil & gas exploration, retail, digital services and media, etc, making it a well-diversified business entity.
RIL’s results were below estimates on the profitability front on account of weaker-than-expected oil-to-chemicals (O2C) earnings.
Long term prospects and dominant standing of RIL in each of its product & service portfolio provides comfort for long term value creation. RIL’s consumer business will be the growth driver, going ahead. The company has a strong balance sheet post fund raising while its traditional business will generate healthy cash flows owing to favourable refining scenario in the near term.
We maintain our BUY rating on the stock
We value RIL at ₹ 3050 on an SoTP basis
Apart from RIL, in our oil & gas coverage we also like Gail.
Particulars | FY19 | FY20 | FY21 | 5 Year CAGR(FY16-FY21) | FY22E | FY23E | FY24E | 3 Year CAGR (FY21-FY24E) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (| crore) | 623,400.0 | 658,866.0 | 539,238.0 | 12.9 | 792,756.0 | 973,187.2 | 1,003,435.3 | 23.0 |
EBITDA (| crore) | 83,918.0 | 88,709.0 | 80,737.0 | 14.1 | 110,460.0 | 158,299.1 | 167,127.8 | 27.4 |
PAT (| crore) | 39,837.0 | 39,354.0 | 49,128.0 | 10.6 | 60,705.0 | 87,042.7 | 88,574.4 | 21.7 |
EPS (|) | 67.2 | 62.1 | 76.2 | - | 89.7 | 128.7 | 130.9 | - |
P/E (x) | 39.0 | 42.2 | 34.4 | - | 29.2 | 20.4 | 20.0 | - |
P/BV (x) | 4.0 | 3.7 | 2.4 | - | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
RoCE (%) | 8.9 | 8.1 | 5.5 | - | 7.7 | 11.5 | 11.4 | - |
RoE (%) | 10.3 | 8.9 | 7.7 | - | 8.5 | 11.0 | 10.4 | - |
- | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
RJio’s quarterly print was a mixed bag. While SIM consolidation led third consecutive quarter of net subscriber decline (more than expected at 10.9 mn), positive surprise was on higher ARPU growth (also a function of sim consolidation, where low quality subs churn might have been seen) and modest beat at EBITDA levels owing to higher topline. ARPU saw growth of 10.6% QoQ at | 167.6 (our expectations | 164). The revenues and EBITDA was at | 20901 crore, | 10510 crore up by 8%, 10.5% QoQ, respectively. Margins were at 50.3%, up 110 bps QoQ and higher than our estimates of 50%, owing to tad higher topline. PAT was at | 4173 crore, up 15.4% QoQ, tad lower than expected (our expectations | 4245 crore), owing to higher than anticipated interest costs. We highlight that lower interest expenses were expected post repayment of ~| 30791 of deferred spectrum liabilities in December/January and subsequent refinance at lower costs (the company had guided for | 1200 crore of interest costs saving annually). However, the interest cost benefit was not seen during the quarter.
Despite Covid led restrictions in January, Reliance Retail reported one of its best quarterly performance in Q4FY22 with revenues surpassing even festive quarter. Footfalls normalised in Feb, whereas March exceeded pre-Covid sales. Overall footfall recovery in Q4FY22 was at 104% of pre-Covid levels (vs. 95% in Q3FY22). The company added 793 new stores with overall stores crossing 15000 benchmark (added ~7 new stores daily in FY22). Revenue for the quarter grew 23% YoY (0.5% QoQ) to | 58019 crore (I-direct estimate: | 56127 crore) with core retail revenue (exc. connectivity sales) increasing by 25% YoY (down 3% QoQ). Management during the call highlighted that demand was robust across all consumption categories (double digit growth) with fashion and electronics segment outperforming. On the profitability font, EBITDA margins (excluding other income) declined by 40 bps YoY to 6.2% (I-direct estimate: 6.5%). Absolute EBITDA grew 16% YoY to | 3584 crore). Digital commerce orders (up 2x YoY) and merchant partnerships (up 4x YoY) continue to scale new highs (19% to sales).
FY22 was a landmark year for Reliance Retail with sales inching nearly at | 200000 crore (| 199707 crore, up 27% YoY). Company added one of its highest number of stores (2500+) in FY22 with coverage of 41.1 million square feet, which is well ahead of any other Indian player. EBITDA for FY22 (excluding other income) grew 29% YoY to | 10932 crore. The company bolstered its offering and continued to fill white spaces through acquisitions (spent more than | 8000+ crore in FY22). RoCE also improved by 130 bps YoY to 11.5% in FY22. Reliance Retail over the last five years has created world class ecosystem (online+offline) with massive scale (revenue and stores) which is well ahead of peers. Over the last five years’ revenue and EBITDA have grown at a robust CAGR of 43% and 59%, respectively (FY17-22). Reliance Retail’s widespread physical store network would further enhance its omni channel capabilities (~17% of revenues) and position it as a frontrunner to garner consistent business growth by capturing a larger pie of the Indian retail sector opportunity. We bake in revenue and EBITDA CAGR of 25% and 40%, respectively in FY22-24E.
Fashion & lifestyle:
Grocery:
Consumer electronics:
On the future strategy front, the company is expected to continue with its aggressive store network expansion and strengthen its digital commerce and omni channel capabilities. Also the management indicated that it would continue to on board new merchants and augment its own product design capabilities and grow its own brand portfolio and focus on scale up of new businesses.
Q4FY22 | Q4FY22E | Q4FY21 | YoY (%) | Q3FY22 | QoQ (%) | Comments | ||
Total Revenues | 2,11,887.0 | 2,11,831.6 | 1,54,896.0 | 36.8 | 1,91,271.0 | 10.8 | In line with estimates | |
Raw materials costs | 1,45,009.0 | 1,36,957.1 | 1,01,537.0 | 42.8 | 1,26,169.0 | 14.9 | ||
Employees Cost | 5,278.0 | 4,294.1 | 3,976.0 | 32.7 | 4,660.0 | 13.3 | ||
Other Expenses | 30,234.0 | 31,755.9 | 26,032.0 | 16.1 | 716.0 | 4,122.6 | ||
Total Expenditure | 1,80,521.0 | 1,73,007.1 | 1,31,545.0 | 37.2 | 1,31,545.0 | 37.2 | ||
EBITDA | 31,366.0 | 38,824.5 | 23,351.0 | 34.3 | 29,706.0 | 5.6 | Below estimates on account of lower than expected O2C profitability | |
EBITDA margins (%) | 14.8 | 18.3 | 15.1 | -27 bps | 15.5 | -73 bps | ||
Depreciation | 8,001.0 | 7,815.0 | 6,973.0 | 14.7 | 7,683.0 | 4.1 | ||
EBIT | 23,365.0 | 31,009.5 | 16,378.0 | 42.7 | 22,023.0 | 6.1 | ||
Interest | 3,556.0 | 3,250.0 | 4,044.0 | -12.1 | 3,812.0 | -6.7 | ||
Other Income | 2,602.0 | 4,250.0 | 3,251.0 | -20.0 | 4,180.0 | -37.8 | ||
Extra Ordinary Item | 0.0 | 0.0 | 797.0 | NA | 2,836.0 | NA | ||
PBT | 22,411.0 | 32,009.5 | 16,382.0 | 36.8 | 25,227.0 | -11.2 | ||
Total Tax | 4,390.0 | 8,066.4 | 1,387.0 | 216.5 | 4,688.0 | -6.4 | ||
PAT | 16,203.0 | 21,773.0 | 13,227.0 | 22.5 | 18,549.0 | -12.6 | Weaker than expected O2C profitability resulted in lower than anticipated PAT | |
Key Metrics | ||||||||
Exchange rate (|/$) | 75.2 | 75.2 | 72.9 | 3.2 | 75.0 | 0.4 | ||
ARPU (|) | 167.6 | 164.1 | 138.2 | 21.3 | 151.6 | 10.6 | ||
Subscribers (mn) | 410.2 | 416.4 | 426.2 | -3.8 | 421.0 | -2.6 | ||
Retail revenue (| crore) | 58019.0 | 56127.0 | 46099.0 | 25.9 | 57717.0 | 0.5 | Store addition: 795, footfalls: 104% of pre-Covid levels. Core revenue grew 25% YoY | |
Retail EBITDA (| crore) | 3712.0 | 3948.0 | 3623.0 | 2.5 | 3835.0 | -3.2 | EBITDA margins (excluding other income) declined 40 bps YoY to 6.2%. Other income stood at | 121 crore vs. 534 crore in Q4FY21 | |
O2C EBITDA (| crore) | 14241.0 | 22187.8 | 11407.0 | 24.8 | 13530.0 | 5.3 | Lower than expectations | |
E&P EBITDA (| crore) | 1556.0 | 1436.7 | 480.0 | 224.2 | 2033.0 | -23.5 | ||
Gas output (mmscmd) | 12.7 | 13.9 | 7.6 | 66.3 | 13.1 | -2.9 |
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