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NRI
Shree Cement Ltd>
  • CMP : 26,123.1 Chg : 219.45 (0.85%)
  • Target : 24,300.0 (27.23%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

28 Jun 2022

Passing through the bumpy roads; Time to stay with the leaders

About the stock

Shree is the third largest cement group in India with domestic cement capacity of 46.4MT as of FY22. In the past 4 years, it has diversified itself from being 100% North player to the player with capacities now in Rajasthan, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, UP, Karnataka and Odisha.

Proximity to end user market, use of split grinding units and power capacity of 742MW (Including 211MW WHRS) makes it most efficient player in the Industry

Current business development
  • Going by the recent capex announcement along with their timelines made by major cement companies, we expect Industry capacity growth to accelerate to over 7% over next 3 years (refer exhibit-3). Assuming some delays/deferments, capacity is still likely to grow at CAGR of 6-6.5% during the same period. Historically, the Industry has witnessed capacity CAGR of 4-4.5% over past 10 years (ie. from ~350MT in FY12 to over ~540MT in FY22). 
  • Compared to Q4 average, prices of international coal/petcoke are higher by 40%/45%. In the absence of major price hike due to moderate demand despite being the peak construction season, input cost inflation is likely to remain a key concern for the sector in the near term. 
 
Long-term outlook stays intact:

Given the cement sectors healthy growth potential which is being reflected in the low per capita consumption (ie at ~250kg vs global average of ~550kg per capita), we expect demand to grow CAGR of 6-6.5% over next 4-5 years. This will be driven by good monsoon, higher farm realisations and the government’s focus on infrastructure, especially affordable housing and road construction, in the run-up to general election in India in 2024. On the cost front, the recent measures by govt. like ban on steel exports, excise duty cut on diesel would help in moderating the inflationary pressure. However, major cost benefit for cement companies to accrue only after structural downturn in the petcoke/coal prices that are still trading at elevated levels. Hence, we remain selective and prefer the companies which is not only cost efficient but also prudent in generating higher cash flows to total capex. Recent stock price correction offers good entry point to accumulate these companies having healthy b/s, pan India presence and sustained long term revenue and earnings growth prospects
What should Investors do?

With commissioning of 3MT grinding unit in Maharashtra, domestic capacity has reached to 46.4MT in FY22. Other new capex include 1) Setting up of new integrated unit with 3.5MT GU and 3.8MT clinker unit in Rajasthan by Q4FY24E at capex of $135/t 2) 3MT grinding unit in WB by Q4FY23E at capex of $34/t 3) 106MW solar power at capex of ₹4.7crore per megawatt. The entire capex of ₹4750 crore till FY24E will be funded via internal accruals. Post recent price corrections, we now turn positive on the company and upgrade our rating to BUY from HOLD.

TP of ₹24300/share (ie. 19x FY24E EV/EBITDA)

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • With commissioning of 3MT grinding unit in Maharashtra, domestic capacity has reached to 46.4MT in FY22
  • Other new capex include 1) Setting up of new integrated unit with 3.5MT GU and 3.8MT clinker unit in Rajasthan by Q4FY24E at capex of $135/t 2) 3MT grinding unit in WB by Q4FY23E at capex of $34/t 3) 106MW solar power at capex of ₹4.7crore per megawatt. 
  • The entire capex of ₹4750 crore till FY24E will be funded via internal accruals. 

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 3 Year CAGR FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY21-FY23E)
Net Sales 11,722.0 11,904.0 12,652.9 14,305.9 6.9 16,530.2 18,632.2 14.1
EBITDA 2,652.8 3,674.5 3,979.3 3,647.8 11.2 3,624.4 4,409.8 9.9
EBITDA (%) 22.6 30.9 31.4 25.5 - 21.9 23.7 -
PAT 1,107.7 1,570.2 2,311.9 2,376.4 29.0 2,054.0 2,566.4 3.9
EPS (|) 318.3 435.2 640.7 658.6 - 569.2 711.2 -
EV/EBITDA 30.0 20.8 18.9 20.6 - 20.4 16.5 -
EV/Tonne ($) 264.1 223.9 220.1 225.2 - 181.7 179.1 -
RoNW 11.5 12.1 15.2 13.8 - 10.9 12.2 -
RoCE 11.5 13.8 18.2 16.1 - 14.0 15.8 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Disclaimer

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