SBI is a public sector bank and also the largest bank in India with a balance sheet size of ~ ₹ 48 lakh crore.
Healthy performance on the asset quality front and growth.
SBI’s share price has surged over 2x in the past five years. We believe overall strength in liability franchisee, >9% guidance on growth and improving return ratios with RoE touching 12-13% should be positives for SBI.
We value the bank at ~1.22x FY24E ABV and subsidiaries at ~₹ 192 per share to arrive at a revised target price of ₹ 650.
Besides SBI, in our coverage we also like Bank of Baroda
Particulars | FY19 | FY20 | FY21E | 4 Year CAGR(FY16-FY20) | FY22E | FY23E | FY24E | 3 Year CAGR (FY21-FY24E) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NII | 883.5 | 980.8 | 1,107.1 | 10.2 | 1,219.1 | 1,363.0 | 1,523.6 | 11.2 |
PPP | 538.8 | 681.4 | 715.5 | 4.7 | 767.1 | 865.1 | 987.0 | 11.3 |
PAT | 8.6 | 144.9 | 204.1 | |||||
ABV (|) | 174.0 | 203.2 | 243.3 | - | 279.5 | 325.0 | 373.8 | - |
P/E | 499.2 | 28.9 | 20.5 | - | 13.2 | 11.0 | 9.9 | - |
P/ABV | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.9 | - | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | - |
RoA | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.5 | - | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | - |
RoE | 0.5 | 6.4 | 8.4 | - | 11.8 | 12.6 | 12.4 | - |
Q3FY22 Results: Stress reduces sequentially
Q3FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights
Q3FY22 | Q3FY22E | Q3FY21 | YoY (%) | Q2FY22 | QoQ (%) | Comments | |
NII | 30,687 | 30,685 | 28,820 | 6.5 | 31,184 | -1.6 | Business growth aided NII offset by higher disbursement to corporate segment |
NIM (%) | 3.2 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 3 bps | 3.2 | -9 bps | |
Other Income | 8,673 | 8,600 | 9,246 | -6.2 | 8,208 | 5.7 | Treasury income impacted other income trajectory |
Net Total Income | 39,360 | 39,285 | 38,066 | 3.4 | 39,392 | -0.1 | |
Operating expense | 20,839 | 21,197 | 20,733 | 0.5 | 21,312 | -2.2 | |
PPP | 18,521 | 18,087 | 17,333 | 6.9 | 18,079 | 2.4 | |
Provision | 6,974 | 8,800 | 10,342 | -32.6 | 7,607 | -8.3 | |
PBT | 11,547 | 9,287 | 6,991 | 65.2 | 10,472 | 10.3 | |
Tax Outgo | 3,116 | 2,368 | 1,795 | 73.6 | 2,845 | 9.5 | |
PAT | 8,431 | 6,919 | 5,196 | 62.3 | 7,627 | 10.5 | Lower provision led uptick in PAT |
Key Metrics | |||||||
GNPA | 1,20,028 | 1,22,400 | 1,17,244 | 2.4 | 1,23,942 | -3.2 | Lower slippages led to improvement in NPA |
NNPA | 34,530 | 38,719 | 29,032 | 18.9 | 37,119 | -7.0 | |
Advances | 2578386 | 2526263 | 2368139 | 8.9 | 2443194.23 | 5.5 | |
Deposits | 3847794 | 3853971 | 3535753 | 8.8 | 3809629.87 | 1.0 |
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA, Sameer Sawant, MBA, and Dixit Sankharva, MBA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.
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RATING RATIONALE
ICICI Direct endeavors to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock
Buy: >15%
Hold: -5% to 15%;
Reduce: -15% to -5%;
Sell: <-15%