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Symphony Ltd>
  • CMP : 1,168.3 Chg : 30.60 (2.69%)
  • Target : 1,215.0 (6.21%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

05 May 2022

High input cost drags margin…

About The Stock:

Symphony is the world’s largest manufacturer of air coolers with a presence in over 60 countries and provides air cooling products in the residential, industrial and commercial segments.

  • Symphony is the market leader in the air-cooling business with a strong distribution network of ~30,000+ dealers, ~1000+ distributors and ~1000+ authorised service centres across the country
  • Asset light business model with strong RoE and RoCE of ~20% and ~21%, respectively (average in the past three years)
Q4FY22 Results:

The company reported a mixed bag performance in Q4FY22 with revenue growth partially offset by lower EBITDA margin.

  • Revenue increased ~13% YoY to Rs. 384 crore supported by 18% revenue growth in the standalone business to Rs. 251 crore
  • Gross margin declined ~200 bps YoY (up 170 bps QoQ) due to higher raw material costs and limited price hikes. This, coupled with higher ad costs dragged EBITDA margin down by 342 bps YoY to 21.4%
  • PAT was flat at Rs. 64 crore YoY tracking lower EBITDA margin
What should Investors do?

Price performance has stayed muted underperforming the index in the last five years (from Rs. 1424 in May 2017 to Rs. 1160 in May 2022).

  • We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price Valuation

We value Symphony at 35x P/E on FY24E EPS with revised target price of Rs. 1215/share.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • The air cooler industry is dominated by unorganised players (70-75% of total industry). We believe organised players would gain market share due to their strong balance sheet and robust supply chain network
  • Increased rural electrification, urbanisation & 1.7 crore new houses under PMAY will augment growth in the Indian air cooler market
  • Strong demand of cooling products from Australia and the US will drive revenue growth of overseas subsidiaries
Alternate Stock Idea

We like Havells in the consumer appliances space.

  • Havells aims to increase its town penetration and launch premium products. We believe a revival in the real estate sector will help drive incremental demand of consumer products where Havells is a major player
  • BUY with a target price of Rs. 1345

Key Financial Summary

(Rs# Crore) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-22E) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 844.0 1,103.0 900.0 1,039.0 0.0 1,282.9 1,558.9 0.2
EBITDA 132.0 212.0 139.0 161.0 0.0 233.5 307.1 0.4
EBITDA Margin (%) 15.6 19.2 15.4 15.5 - 18.2 19.7 -
PAT 91.0 182.0 107.0 121.0 0.0 182.8 243.4 0.4
EPS (|) 13.0 26.0 15.3 17.3 - 26.1 34.8 -
P/E(x) 87.9 44.0 74.8 66.1 - 43.8 32.9 -
Price/Book value (x) 12.0 12.5 10.5 9.5 - 10.4 9.0 -
RoE (%) 16.2 29.0 14.9 14.4 - 23.6 27.4 -
RoCE (%) 18.7 28.8 15.2 15.9 - 24.5 29.0 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q4FY22 Results:

  • Consolidated revenues increased ~13% YoY to | 384 crore led by standalone revenue growth of 18% YoY to Rs. 251 crore. Export revenues increased ~2x to Rs. 81 crore helped drive standalone revenue growth in Q4. The overseas revenue grew albeit at a slower pace of ~5% due to lower offtake in China. We believe revenue growth was largely driven by volume
  • Consolidated gross margin declined 200 bps YoY mainly due to lower gross margin on standalone business. Standalone gross margins dipped 660 bps YoY due to higher raw material prices. Increasing competition and high inventory in the channel restricted company to take price hikes
  • Consolidated EBITDA margin declined 342 bps YoY to 21.4%. PAT at Rs. 64 crore was flat on a YoY basis, tracking lower EBITDA margin

Q4FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Demand Outlook:
    • The management believes a normalised summer and a strong export order (from US) will help drive consolidated revenue growth higher by ~40% compared to its pre-Covid 19 level sales.
    • Symphony India has clocked one the highest monthly sales for April 2022 led by a strong demand of air coolers and a normalised inventory level
  • Margins:
    • At the current level of inflation, the company expects its EBITDA margin to be in line with its historical EBITDA margin for India business
    • The company has increased its domestic sourcing of raw materials and, hence, is least likely to be impacted by supply disruption from China
  • Subsidiary performance:
    • Climate Technology (Australia) revenues for FY22 were up ~10% YoY to | 371 crore. The EBITDA margin was higher by ~600 bps YoY to 10%, resulting a PAT of Rs. 11 crore up from Rs. 1 crore YoY
    • Impco’s FY22 revenues came in at Rs. 103 crore up 37% YoY on relatively favourable base. The EBITDA margin improved 400 bps YoY to 13%. It reported PAT of Rs.8 crore in FY22
    • GSK China reported a flattish revenue of Rs.38 crore in FY22. The losses from the subsidiary have widened from Rs. 9 crore in FY21 to Rs. 10 crore in FY22
Variance Analysis

  Q4FY22 Q4FY21 YoY (%) Q3FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 384.0 339.0 13.3 205.0 87.3   Standalone revenue increased by 18% YoY led by higher export revenues. However revenues from overseas subsidiaries grew albeit a small pace of ~5% YoY due to slow offtake in China
Other Income 16.0 6.0 166.7 7.0 128.6    
               
Raw Material Exp 207.0 176.0 17.6 114.0 81.6   Price hikes in the overseas business and improved product mix helped sequentially recovery in gross margins. However cost pressure from the domestic business drags gross margin YoY
Employee Exp 29.0 24.0 20.8 30.0 -3.3    
Selling & Dis. Exp 21.0 14.0 50.0 2.0 950.0    
Other Exp 45.0 41.0 9.8 29.0 55.2    
               
EBITDA 82.0 84.0 -2.4 30.0 173.3    
EBITDA Margin (%) 21.4% 24.8% -342 bps 14.6% 672 bps   Low gross margin and restoration of advertisement costs dragged overall EBITDA margin YoY
Depreciation 6.0 5.0 20.0 6.0 0.0    
Interest 2.0 3.0 -33.3 3.0 -33.3    
               
PBT 90.0 82.0 9.8 28.0 221.4    
Total Tax 26.0 19.0 36.8 7.0 271.4    
PAT 64.0 63.0 1.6 21.0 204.8   Higher sales growth was partially offset by lower EBITDA margin, resulting a flattish PAT on a YoY basis

Terms & conditions and other disclosures

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Sanjay Manyal, MBA (Finance) and Hitesh Taunk, MBA (Finance) Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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