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  • CMP : 1,182.9 Chg : 11.40 (0.97%)
  • Target : 950.0 (24.84%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

21 Oct 2022

Maintain our positive stance on growth…

About The Stock

Tata Consumer Products (TCPL) is one of the major FMCG companies present in tea, coffee & other beverages in India, UK, US, Canada and some other geographies. In India, it also has salt, pulses, spices and other food products. Its subsidiary NourishCo is present in packaged water & other beverages. The company is in JV with Starbucks, which has 300 stores in India.

  • The company has 2000+ distribution directly reaching to 1.4 million outlets in India. This will be increased to 1.5 million outlets by March 2023
  • TCPL also increased its rural/ semi urban distributors 4x to 8000+       after the consolidation of the consumer business
Q2FY23 Results

TCPL reported 10.9% pricing led sales growth

  • Sales were up 10.9% YoY backed by 29% growth in foods business
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 433.8 crore, up 5% YoY, with margins at 12.9%
  • Consequent adjusted PAT was at ₹ 307.5 crore (up 3.2% YoY)
What should Investors do?

TCPL’s share price has moved up 3.5x in the last five years (from ₹ 220 in October 2017 to 761 in October 2022)

  • We continue to remain positive on TCPL’s strategy of driving premium trend in foods business and foray in large opportunity size categories
  • We maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value the stock at ₹ 950 on ascribing 55x FY24 earnings multiple.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • The company is leveraging the Tata brand by foraying in ready to eat (RTE), snacks, water, ready to drink (RTD) & multiple other staple categories, where the opportunity to convert unorganised/local brand consumption to strong organised brand is immense
  • Strong innovation & premiumisation strategy in salt, tea, Sampann and Soulful in the India market is expected to drive margins. Newer categories like pulses, spices, dry fruits & healthier mini meals to drive volume growth
  • Starbucks is witnessing robust store addition along with improvement in operating profits. Likely to drive profitability in future
Alternate Stock Idea

We also like Dabur in our FMCG coverage.

  • Shift in consumption towards healthier, natural & Ayurveda based products & aggressive foray in many big categories would drive growth
  • Value the business at 55x FY24 earnings. BUY with a TP of ₹ 700

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5Year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2Year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 7,251.5 9,637.4 11,602.0 12,425.4 12.9 13,783.9 15,213.3 10.7
EBITDA 785.9 1,292.2 1,543.8 1,718.8 16.8 1,910.6 2,284.2 15.3
EBITDA Margin % 10.8 13.4 13.3 13.8 - 13.9 15.0 -
Adjusted Net Profit 478.4 641.8 932.6 1,015.2 17.4 1,282.6 1,578.3 24.7
EPS (|) 7.2 5.0 10.1 11.0 8.9 13.9 17.1 24.7
P/E 105.2 152.5 75.4 69.1 - 54.7 44.5 -
RoNW % 6.5 4.6 6.4 7.0 - 8.2 9.7 -
RoCE (%) 8.4 6.9 8.0 8.4 - 9.2 10.8 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q2FY23 Results: Currency volatility, inflationary trends in international business weigh on margins

  • Revenue witnessed growth of 10.9% to | 3363.1 crore led by 29% growth in India foods business, 39% constant currency growth in Tata Coffee (plantation & extraction) & 16% constant currency growth in the US coffee business

 

  • India’s packaged beverage (largely tea) business witnessed 7% revenue decline with 6% cut in prices & 1% volume dip. The company lost value market share by 20 bps in India tea but gained volume market share of 46 bps

 

  • The volume in the tea business has been particularly lagging in rural, semi urban & North India (Hindi speaking states). India coffee business witnessed growth of 39% in Q2 (contributes very littles to sales)

 

  • India packaged beverage business continued to see margin expansion. However, benefit of benign tea prices is slowly waning given a small increase in tea procurement price in 2022-23 season. Premium product portfolio in tea (Chakra, Tata Tea Gold, Chakra Care, Gold Care) continues to perform better than base portfolio.  Premium brand TTG care is contributing 4.8% to TTG sales

 

  • NorishCo continued its growth momentum with 64% sales growth to | 138 crore on a relatively low base. Himalayan brand sales grew 72% and remains a profitable brand. It is witnessing good traction in newly launched Himalayan honey & preserves

 

  • India foods business sales growth of 29% was entirely contributed by prices given very high inflation in salt prices due to high energy costs. With the 27% sales growth in salt business, the company gained market share by 128 bps. TCPL has taken 33% price hikes in salt in last one year

 

  • In the India foods business,            Tata Sampann portfolio saw 37% growth led by strong performance across pulses, poha & Spices. Tata Sampann Dry fruits scaling up with strong market share gain in e-commerce platforms. Newly launched Tata Soulful Masala Oats started well in key channels

 

  • Tata Sampann expanded its product portfolio by launching Asafoetida (Hing). It also launched Tata tea Saffron in premium tea offering, Tata Sampann Shahi Besan Plus & Tata Soulfull Millet Muesli. The company also launched ‘Tata GOFIT’ in protein supplement category

 

  • The company rebranded ‘Tata Q’ RTE product portfolio to ‘Tata Sampann Yumside’ in India & ‘Tata Raasa’ in international markets

 

  • International tea business revenue was flat with 4% volume decline. The business was adversely impacted by 7% revenue decline in UK with Teapigs brand revenue declining as much as 16%. This is mainly due to category decline on the back of high inflation. UK tea business margin was adversely impacted by inflation and currency depreciation

 

  • Canada business sales in international tea business continued to witness strong 16% growth entirely led by pricing given high inflation is taking a toll on volumes. It maintained market share of 27.3% in tea category in Canada

 

  • US coffee business also saw 16% constant currency revenue growth. Tea business sales in the US have grown at 9% led by Teapigs & Tetley. The company holds 4.4% market share in Coffee Bags in the US

 

  • Tata coffee plantation & extraction business witnessed 39% growth led by higher coffee & pepper prices. Moreover, extraction business capacity utilisation was at its peak in Vietnam & India

 

  • Innovation (product launched in the last three years) witnessed growth of 50% in Q2FY23. NPD contribution to sales would be ~3.5-4.0 in FY23

                                   

  • Gross margins contracted 101 bps due to high inflationary trend in international business with adverse currency movement impact. Moreover, benefits of lower tea prices are also waning. Extremely high inflation in salt is also impacting margins

 

  • Though the company has taken price hikes to mitigate inflationary & adverse currency trend in UK, it takes 90 days to get impacted due to liquidation of trade inventory. This would reflect in margins from Q4FY23 onwards

 

  • UK business tea is procured from Africa in US$ denomination. Conversion and translation impact of currency has adversely impacted margin for the business

 

  • Employee & marketing spends were down 29 bps & 54 bps, respectively. However, overhead spends were up 54 bps. Operating profit grew 5% to
    | 433.8 crore with operating margin contraction of 73 bps to 12.9%

 

  • Net profit grew 36.3% to | 389.4 crore mainly on account of exceptional income of | 111.2 crore relating to the sales of property. Adjusting for exceptional income, net profit grew 3.2% to | 307.5 crore. Profit from associates grew 41.1% on account of higher income from tea plantation associate company & strong performance from Starbucks JV

 

  • Starbucks JV saw strong 57% growth during the quarter with continued profit at EBIT level. The company opened 25 stores in Q2 taking the total number of stores to 300 in 36 cities

 

  • The company has expanded its direct distribution reach to 1.4 million outlets by September 2022 (1.3 million in March 2022). Modern trade channel sales saw 18% growth whereas e-commerce channel sales continue to grow strong at 40%. E-commerce channels sales contribute 9.2% to sales whereas NPD on e-commerce channels contributes 11% to sales

 

  • The restructuring of UK business & Tata Coffee merger would be EPS accretive by 3-4%

 

Disclaimer

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