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Tata Consumer Products Ltd>
  • CMP : 1,097.5 Chg : 11.85 (1.09%)
  • Target : 980.0 (34.99%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

26 Apr 2023

Volume growth, margin expansion on anvil...

About The Stock

Tata Consumer Products (TCPL) is one of the major FMCG companies present in Tea, Coffee & other beverages in India, UK, US, Canada & some other geographies. In India, it also has Salt, Pulses, Spices & other foods products. Its subsidiary NourishCo is present in packaged water & other beverages. The company is in JV with Starbucks, which has 311 stores in India

  • The company has 2000+ distribution directly reaching to 1.5 million outlets in India. Its total distribution reach is 3.8 million outlets.
Q4FY23 Results

TCPL reported 14% revenue growth led by India business

  • Constant currency sales growth of 12% was drive by 6% volume growth
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 511.7 crore, up 15.2% YoY, with margins at 14.1%
  • Consequent adjusted PAT was at ₹ 289.5 crore (up 21.1% YoY)
What should Investors do?

TCPL’s share price has given moved up 155% in last five years (from ₹ 292 in April 2018 to 744 in April 2023)

  • TCPL to drive volumes through new product portfolio, which includes NourishCo, Soulful, Sampaan & Smartfoodz. Premiumisation trend in tea & salt to aid margins
  • We continue to maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value the stock at ₹ 980 on ascribing 52x FY25 earnings multiple

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • New product portfolio in RTE, RTC, Water, Nutritional foods & other categories with large opportunity size to drive volumes. The growth brands (Tata Sampann, NorurishCO, Tata Soulfull and Tata Smartfoodz) contribute 15% of India branded sales growing at 53% (in FY23)
  • Strong innovation & premiumisation strategy in Salt and Tea is expected to drive margins in establish brands. Further, softening of commodity prices along with requisite price hikes to also aid margins
  • Starbucks crossed the sales of ₹ 1000 crore with total 333 store in 41 cities. With the aggressive store addition & maturity of existing stores, operating profit to grow at a faster pace in next 3-5 years
Alternate Stock Idea

We also like Dabur in our FMCG coverage.

  • Shift in consumption towards healthier, natural & Ayurveda based products & aggressively foray in many big categories would drive growth
  • Value the business at 52x FY25 earnings. BUY with a TP of ₹ 700

Key Financial Summary

(| Crore) FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 5 Year CAGR (18-23) FY24E FY25E 2 Year CAGR (23-25E)
Net Sales 9,637.4 11,602.0 12,425.4 13,783.2 0.2 15,192.2 16,807.4 0.1
EBITDA 1,292.2 1,543.8 1,718.8 1,856.5 0.2 2,259.5 2,562.5 0.2
EBITDA Margin % 13.4 13.3 13.8 13.5 - 14.9 15.2 -
Adjusted Net Profit 641.8 932.6 1,053.7 1,200.4 0.2 1,519.0 1,764.5 0.2
EPS (|) 5.0 10.1 11.0 14.2 0.1 16.4 19.0 0.2
P/E 149.4 73.9 67.7 52.5 - 45.6 39.3 -
RoNW % 4.6 6.4 7.0 7.4 - 9.0 10.1 -
RoCE (%) 6.9 8.0 8.4 8.7 - 10.5 11.6 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q4FY23 Results: Growth portfolio growing more than 50%; ease in commodities & premiumisation to propel margins

  • TCPL witnessed sales growth of 14% to |3618.7 crore led by 26% growth in India food business, 8% growth in India beverage & 10.5% growth in international beverage business. Constant currency growth of 12% has been drive by ~6% volume growth & 6% realisation growth

 

  • India beverage business saw 8% sales growth led by 3% volume growth. The strong growth in the segment is led by 79% sales growth in NourishCo. India packaged beverage (Tea & Coffee) grew by 1% with 3% volume growth. The company lost value market share by 113 bps & volume market share by 50 bps in packaged beverage segment in FY23

 

  • Tea market share loss has been largely due to rural stress, inflation & weaker performance in eastern UP. The loss in market share is largely to reginal brands. The company has a cluster-based approach to strengthen share in weaker markets. Early signs of volume growth in tea business are visible

 

  • India foods business growth of 26% was led by 8% volume growth. Salt sales grew by 24% largely led by prices. Value added product contribution in salt product portfolio is 5% in FY23 compared to less than 1% in FY20. Gross margin normative range for salt business is 32-37%

 

  • Tata Sampann sales grew by 35%. The company gained market share in salt business 76 bps in FY23. The company introduced ‘Tata Sampann Makhana’ in healthier food category. It also launched ‘Tata Sampann Indore Style Poha’ leveraging popular localised flavours

 

  • The strong growth in international business was mainly aided by stake consolidation of Joekels & Bangladesh business (acquired stake in JV). Like to Like basis, the growth was 1%. US coffee business saw 6% contributed by 26% pricing & 20% volume decline. The steep volume decline was mainly due to grammage reduction in EOC (eight o clock) to pass on steep increase coffee prices

 

  • UK business saw 8% revenue growth in Q4. The company implemented 15% price hike in February led to sequential margin recovery. Canada business witnessed a growth of 5% in Q4. It introduced ‘Live teas’ specialty tea range of products & Tata world food portfolio

 

  • Tata coffee business witnessed 13% sales growth led by 14% volume growth. Coffee extraction business saw 20% sales growth whereas plantation business sales grew by 11%. Though plantation business saw strong pricing growth, extraction business is driven by volumes

 

  • Tata Starbucks saw 48% sales growth with 22 store addition during the quarter. On a annualise basis, the company reached a sales of | 1087 crore, clocking a growth of 71%. The company added 71 new stores & entered 15 new cities in FY23. The business-maintained EBIT positive for the year

 

  • Gross margin contracted by 280 bps mainly due to higher tea prices in international business. Employee & overhead spends (% of sales) were down by 54 bps & 241 bps respectively. This resulted in operating profit growth of 15.2% to |511.7 crore with operating margin uptick of 15 bps to 14.1%. Net profit grew by 21.1% to |289.6 crore driven by strong growth in operating profit as well as in other income

 

  • Total distribution reach for the company is 3.8 million outlets, which would be increased to 4.0 million outlets by September-2023. The company has increased its direct reach 3x to 1.5 million outlets in last three years. It would further strengthen direct reach in 50k plus towns  

 

  • The company is splitting salesman route to improve bandwidth in 10 lakh population town. Currently one salesman is catering to entire product portfolio. Beverage & Soulful product would be served by one salesman & Salt, Sampaan & Smartfoodz would be served by another distributor.

 

  • Ecommerce channel has grown at 32% & it is contributing 9% to the sales (ex-NourishCo). Modern trade channel sales has grown at 21% & it is now contributing 14% to the sales (ex-NourishCo) NPD (new product development) contribution at ecommerce channel is 10%. 

 

  • The company generate 3.4% of its sales from new products & total new launches in FY23 has been 34 compared to 19 product launches in FY22. The growth brands (Tata Sampann, NorurishCO, Tata Soulfull and Tata Smartfoodz) contribute 15% of India branded sales growing at 53% (in FY23)

 

  • NourishCo business has grown at 3.5x in last three years & touched a sales of | 621 crore in FY23. The innovation contribution is 13%. The company has increased its manufacturing capacity by 2x in same period. NourishCo distribution reach is close to 6 lakh stores (up 70%)

 

  • Tata Soulfull witnessed 100% growth in FY23. The growth can be largely attributed to enhanced distribution reach after the acquisition. The company is driving accessibility with smaller | 10 price packs. It launched masala oats in FY23, which has reached double digit market share in specific ecommerce platforms

 

  • Indian tea prices have been benign currently. However, rainfall in 2023 would determine tea procurement prices going forward. Arabica coffee prices remained stable on expectation of higher Brazilian crop whereas Robusta coffee prices have been down 10% YoY.  


  • The company expect mid-single digit volume growth in matured tea & salt business with faster growth in new product portfolio.

Disclaimer

RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavors to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according -to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

 

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5% to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15%

 

 

 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

research@icicidirect.com

 

 

 

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