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NRI
Tata Motors Ltd>
  • CMP : 799.1 Chg : -0.80 (-0.10%)
  • Target : 500.0 (25.0%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

14 May 2022

Aiming near net debt free (automotive) by FY24…

About The Stock

Tata Motors (TML) is an auto OEM from the house of Tatas, operating in domestic (PV, CV) as well as global markets (Jaguar Land Rover i.e. JLR)

  • JLR is a luxury car brand, which includes two prominent names i.e. Jaguar (models like I-pace, etc.) & Land Rover (models like Defender, Evoque, etc)
  • FY22 consolidated sales mix– JLR ~67%, India CV ~19%, India PV ~11%.
Q4FY22

TML reported healthy Q4FY22 results.

  • Consolidated total operating income was up 8.6% QoQ at ₹ 78,439 crore
  • EBITDA margins were at 14.7%, up 210 bps QoQ
  • Consolidated loss after tax was at ₹ 1,033 crore
  • EBITDA margins in Q4FY22: JLR – 12.6%, Indian CV- 5.9% & India PV- 6.9%

 

What should Investors do?

TML’s stock price has been flattish over the past five years (~₹ 430 levels in May 2017), underperforming the Nifty Auto index.

  • We retain BUY on positive demand outlook, impressive margin & FCF targets for FY23E and intent to be net debt free (automotive) by FY24E
Target Price Valuation

We now value TML at ₹ 500 on SOTP basis (10x, 3x FY24E EV/EBITDA on India, JLR; ₹160 value to Indian EV business; earlier TP ₹ 550).

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • We expect healthy 13.2% revenue CAGR over FY22-24E backed by 15.8% total volume CAGR amid strong order book at JLR (1.68 lakh units)
  • Cost control, efficiency improvement-led FCF generation targets for ongoing deleveraging push (FY22 net automotive debt at ~₹ 48,700 crore)
  • Continued EV alertness in India through concepts & real launches (PV market leader with Nexon; plans to introduce 10 models by 2025) and JLR (Jaguar all-electric by 2025; 6 BEVs in Land Rover in next five years)
  • Margins seen at 14.3% in FY24E along with RoCE at ~13.7%
New Stock Ideas

Apart from TML, in our OEM coverage we also like M&M.

  • Focused on prudent capital allocation, UV differentiation & EV proactiveness

 

  • BUY with target price of ₹ 1,045

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22P 5 year CAGR (FY17-22P) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22P-24E)
Net Sales 301,938.4 261,068.0 249,794.8 278,453.6 0.6 321,160.9 356,857.3 13.2
EBITDA 29,794.8 23,914.1 35,782.0 34,022.7 0.6 40,669.2 50,925.7 22.3
EBITDA Margins (%) 9.9 9.2 14.3 12.2 - 12.7 14.3 -
Net Profit -28,724.2 -11,975.4 -13,395.0 -11,441.5
EPS (₹) -79.8 -33.3 -35.0 -29.9 - 1.7 21.1 -
P/E -5.0 -12.0 -11.4 -13.4 - 239.0 19.0 -
RoNW (%) -47.3 -18.7 -23.6 -23.4 - 1.3 14.0 -
RoCE (%) 3.7 1.3 6.3 4.8 - 8.1 13.7 -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & Concall highlights

Q4FY22 Results:

 

  • Consolidated total operating income for the quarter came in at | 78,439 crore, up 8.6% QoQ. Reported EBITDA for Q4FY22 was at | 11,494 crore with corresponding EBITDA margins at 14.7%, up 220 bps QoQ
  • JLR wholesales at 89,148 units were up 7.3% QoQ with revenues flat QoQ at £4.8 billion. Margins were up 60 bps QoQ at 12.6%. JLR generated positive FCF of £340 million
  • Indian operation (PV + CV) sales were at ₹29,020 crores amid 22% volume jump to ~2.4 lakh units. Margins were at 6.3% (CV margins up 330 bps QoQ at 5.9%, PV margins up 270 bps QoQ at 6.9%).

 

Q4FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • The company’s commentary on demand remain strong amidst strong order book of 1.68 lakh units for JLR during Q4FY22 vs 1.55 lakh units in Q3FY22 & longer waiting period for PV’s. Order book for new range rover increased to 46k from 31k in Q3FY22
  • Medium and long term JLR guidance maintained to achieve >5% EBIT margin at JLR, with Q4FY22 positive on EBIT with Q4FY22 margins at 2% and £340 million FCF
  • JLR annualised breakeven wholesales levels have reached to 300k units in H2FY22 lower than target of 350k units in FY23. Going forward break-even is expected to be at 85k units/quarter in FY23 due to normalisation of operations & rational sales of new Range Rover
  • Production lost in Q4FY22 due to chip shortage was ~10% in Indian operations
  • JLR had 64% electrified powertrain mix in Q4FY22 (BEV 3%, 10% PHEV, 50% MHEV) vs. 69% in Q3FY22 with electrification mix for FY22 at 66%
  • Management expects chip shortage to continue and improve gradually with Q1FY22 to witness muted sales due to China lockdown. Delivery of new Range Rover will start from Q2FY23
  • Geopolitical political issues did not affect company in material way as <2.5% of combined sales from both countries, further only a smart number of parts are sourced from Russia & Ukraine
  •  Refocus program has achieved its target of £1.5 billion cash and cost improvements for FY22
  • CNG penetration in M&HCV to be limited due to requirement of high range and limited infrastructure whereas same for LCV to be higher due to limited range requirement. CNG penetration in I&LCV is at 40%. Powertrain mix for CV for FY22 was 73% for diesel, 10% for petrol, 17% for CNG+EV
  • Company launched 80+ products, 120 variants in FY22 leading to market share gain for CV by 250 bps YoY at 44.9%.
  • Company is operating a fleet of 250+ E-Bus fleet for BEST in Mumbai & Ahmedabad under wet lease model. Further management informed about for 15 FCEV powered bus order received from IOCL.
  • TML launched E-dukaan, an online store to purchase spare parts with revenue clocked ₹100 crores in FY22. Further management informed spare part revenue have doubled over four year period.
  • Powertrain mix for PV was 72% petrol, 20% diesel, 5% EV, 3% CNG. EV market share stood at ~87% for FY22 with ~2,000 charging points.
  • Robust booking pipeline, strong market share, low channel inventory, available capacity to ramp up EV to act as growth triggers for FY23. Management expect domestic PV industry to surpass FY19 demand in FY23

 

 

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