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NRI
UltraTech Cement Ltd>
  • CMP : 12,065.0 Chg : 248.70 (2.10%)
  • Target : 7,500.0 (34.89%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

28 Jun 2022

Passing through the bumpy roads; Time to stay with the leaders

About the stock

Ultratech is the largest cement manufacturer in India with a domestic capacity of 114.5MT (over 23% of total market) with a leadership position in most regions (excluding East). It has grown through organic and inorganic routes and added around ~30MT of capacity in the last 3 years.

  • It has shown its capability to successfully integrate the acquired assets and ramped-up its utilisations in a profitable manner.
  • The co. is now focussing on fast growing market of eastern India, which accounts for 10.2MT of its total 19.6MT planned expansion over FY21-FY24E
Passing through the bumpy roads

Going by the recent capex announcement along with their timelines made by major cement companies, we expect Industry capacity growth to accelerate to over 7% over next 3 years (refer exhibit-3). Assuming some delays/deferments, capacity is still likely to grow at CAGR of 6-6.5% during the same period. Historically, the Industry has witnessed capacity CAGR of 4-4.5% over past 10 years (ie. from ~350MT in FY12 to over ~540MT in FY22). 

Compared to Q4 average, prices of international coal/petcoke are higher by 40%/45%. In the absence of major price hike due to moderate demand despite being the peak construction season, input cost inflation is likely to remain a key concern for the sector in the near term

Long Term outlook stays strong

Given the cement sectors healthy growth potential which is being reflected in the low per capita consumption (ie at ~250kg vs global average of ~550kg per capita), we expect demand to grow CAGR of 6-6.5% over next 4-5 years. This will be driven by good monsoon, higher farm realisations and the government’s focus on infrastructure, especially affordable housing and road construction, in the run-up to general election in India in 2024. On the cost front, the recent measures by govt. like ban on steel exports, excise duty cut on diesel would help in moderating the inflationary pressure. However, major cost benefit for cement companies to accrue only after structural downturn in the petcoke/coal prices that are still trading at elevated levels. Hence, we remain selective and prefer the companies which is not only cost efficient but also prudent in generating higher cash flows to total capex. Recent stock price correction offers good entry point to accumulate these companies having healthy b/s, pan India presence and sustained long term revenue and earnings growth prospects

What Should Investors do?

Market leadership, strong brand with highest retail presence and robust balance sheet justifies Ultratech’s premium valuations.

With a target to become net debt free by FY24E and expected RoCE of 15%+, we remain positive on company and maintain BUY rating

Valuations

With strong BS, the company is best placed to ride on competition and maintain return ratios vs its peers. We continue to maintain BUY rating with a target price of ₹7,500/sh (ie at 15.5x FY24E EV/EBITDA

  • The board has approved cement capacity expansion of 22.6MT at a capex of ~12,900 crore (US$76/t) which the company expects to complete by FY25. 
  • This will take co’s total India grey cement capacity to ~154MT implying 10.2% CAGR during the next 3 years.
  • These new capacities are being added at much cheaper rate compared to replacement value (ie EV/tonne of $76/tonne vs Industry average of $125/130/tonne). 
  • This clearly shows efficiency in the capex allocation.
 

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 3 Year CAGR FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY21-FY23E)
Net Sales (| crore) 39,933.0 40,634.0 43,188.0 50,663.0 8.3 61,173.0 65,976.0 14.1
EBITDA (| crore) 7,076.0 8,652.0 10,964.0 10,936.0 15.6 10,896.0 13,677.0 11.8
EBITDA (%) 17.7 21.3 25.4 21.6 - 17.8 20.7 -
Adjusted PAT (| crore) 2,530.0 4,448.0 5,506.0 7,067.0 40.8 5,688.0 7,593.0 3.7
EPS (|) 87.7 154.1 190.8 244.9 - 197.1 263.1 -
EV/EBITDA 29.1 23.7 18.2 17.9 - 17.6 13.7 -
EV/t ($) 265.0 263.0 217.0 214.0 - 210.0 205.0 -
RoNW (%) 7.6 11.6 12.7 14.4 - 10.6 12.7 -
RoCE (%) 9.0 11.4 14.7 14.2 - 13.6 16.6 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Disclaimer

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