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V I P Industries Ltd>
  • CMP : 479.1 Chg : 10.65 (2.27%)
  • Target : 840.0 (18.98%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

30 Jan 2023

Accelerated growth continues; margin profile to improve, going forward

About The Stock

VIP Industries is one of Asia’s leading seller/manufacturer of various type of luggage, backpacks and handbags. VIP has a range of leading brands, positioned across the entire price range, catering to value (Aristocrat) mid (VIP, Skybags) and premium (Carlton, Caprese) price points.

  • Market leader in the organised luggage space (oligopoly market: 44% share)
  • VIP has, over the years, maintained balance sheet prudence with stringent working capital policy, virtually debt free status and healthy RoCE: 30%+
Q3FY23 Results:

VIP’s revenue performance exceeded expectations in Q3 with highest ever sales in Q3. On pre-Covid base, revenue recovery rate was at 122%.

  • On a favourable base, sales grew 32% YoY to ₹ 526.4 crore. The growth was driven by volume growth of 25% YoY
  • Gross margins did witness an improvement on a sequential basis (up 130 bps YoY to 49.4%, Q3FY20: 53%) but was below our expectations (I-direct estimate: 51.3%)
  • EBITDA margins declined 50 bps YoY (flattish QoQ) to 13.9% (Q3FY20: 15.7%, I-direct estimate: 15.8%)
What should Investors do?

VIP’s share price has grown by ~2.0x over the past five years (from ~₹ 350 in January 2018 to ~₹ 700 levels in January 2023). Luggage being a proxy play to the travel & tourism industry was among the worst impacted sectors owing to pandemic in FY21, FY22. With demand greenshoots visible, we expect VIP Industries to be a key beneficiary of increased movement of leisure and business tourist both domestically and internationally.

  • We maintain BUY recommendation on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value VIP at ₹ 840 i.e. 48x FY24E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Strong manufacturing capabilities in Bangladesh (for soft luggage) and India gives VIP an edge over its peers who depend mainly on imports
  • Given the company’s healthy balance sheet, we expect VIP to be able to effectively manage through the challenging environment
  • We expect the company to surpass ₹ 2000 crore revenue in FY23 and model revenue CAGR of 38% in FY22-24E (on a favourable base). Stabilising RM prices and increased proportion of in-house manufacturing both from India and Bangladesh to translate into better margins, going forward
Alternate Stock Idea:

Apart from VIP, in our retail coverage, we also like Trent.

  • Inherent strength of brands (Westside, Zudio, Zara) and proven business model position Trent as a key beneficiary of economy unlock theme
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1730/share

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 1,784.7 1,718.3 618.6 1,289.5 0.2 2,116.2 2,450.1 37.8
EBITDA 224.7 291.3 -65.3 144.4 1.8 317.8 424.2 71.4
Net Profit 145.3 111.7 -97.5 66.9 - 200.2 246.5 -
P/E (x) 68.7 89.3 -102.3 149.1 - 49.8 40.5 -
EV/Sales (x) 5.6 5.8 16.0 7.8 - 4.7 4.1 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 44.7 34.2 -151.7 69.5 - 31.6 23.5 -
RoCE (%) 32.4 34.2 -14.1 16.2 - 31.8 37.4 -
RoE (%) 25.0 18.3 -18.9 11.9 - 27.8 27.6 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key quarterly takeaways and conference call highlights

  • VIP reported healthy topline growth driven by a strong recovery in the travel and wedding season. Despite a decline in crude prices (~65% of RM based on crude derivatives), gross margin expansion for the company (on a sequential basis) was subdued. Hence, profitability came in below our estimates
  • On a favourable base, sales grew 32% YoY to | 526.4 crore (I-direct estimate: | 500 crore). The growth was driven by volume growth of 25% YoY. On a pre-Covid base, revenue recovery rate was at 122% (volume growth:18% over Q3FY20). This is VIP’s highest ever Q3 sales
  • Among categories, luggage segment (75% of sales) continues to dominate the product mix. However, the company witnessed a healthy recovery in the backpack segment (12% of sales) during the quarter. Backpacks registered 57% YoY revenue growth in Q3FY23 with revenue recovery rate reaching 101% of pre-Covid levels (vs. 88% in Q2FY23)
  • Demand recovery was more compelling towards the mass category compared to the premium category, which was also fuelled by market share gains from unorganised players. The company rejigged its product portfolio towards the mass segment and launched several new products at lower price points in the category to capture the demand. The share of Aristocrat brand (value brand) was at 37% vs. pre-Covid levels of 22% while the share of VIP brand declined to 21% vs. 27%
  • Gross margins did witness an improvement on a sequential basis (up 130 bps YoY to 49.4%, Q3FY20: 53%) but was below our expectations (I-direct estimate: 51.3%). The management indicated that benefits of declining RM prices and ocean freight were realised only in December during the quarter. The management expects a gradual improvement in gross margins in the ensuing quarter (gross margin range: 52-53%). Increased in-house manufacturing and higher spends on marketing resulted in a rise in opex by 37% YoY (up 15% on base of Q3FY20). Subsequently EBITDA margins declined 50 bps YoY (flattish QoQ) to 13.9% (Q3FY20: 15.7%, I-direct estimate: 15.8%). Absolute EBITDA came in at | 73 crore (I-direct estimate: | 79.2 crore), which is 107% of pre-Covid levels
  • Own manufacturing contribution (Bangladesh & India) has increased significantly over the last two years. It is currently contributing ~70% of revenue in YTDFY23 (vs. 42% in FY20). The company is aspiring to achieve 75-80% of revenue from its India and Bangladesh plants, going forward. The company had significantly curtailed its dependence on finished goods from China to <10% vs. 40% in FY20
  • To further strengthen its manufacturing capacity, the company has embarked on a | 100 crore capex plan to enhance its capacity by ~25% by FY24E. As on FY22, the company had an annual capacity of 5.1 million of hard luggage and 7.2 million of soft luggage
  • The company is gradually enhancing its distribution channel with touchpoints for general trade and modern trade channels closely tracking pre-Covid levels. As on date the company had 413 stores with 45 under fit outs. VIP is mulling exiting FY23E with 500 exclusive VIP outlets (it had shut 150 lossmaking stores out of its 500 outlets in FY21). Majority of the store additions would be through the franchise route. Revenue from modern trade channel, which was under pressure owing to closure of Future group stores (~15% of revenues) has now gradually picked up pace with restocking in other national chain stores
  • On the outlook for the luggage industry, the management expects the organised luggage industry to grow at 15% CAGR over the next five years. The same growth is expected to be replicated at the company level as well

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Bharat Chhoda, MBA, Cheragh Sidhwa, MBA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5% to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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