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  • CMP : 889.2 Chg : 2.60 (0.29%)
  • Target : 500.0 (16.28%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

04 Feb 2023

Decent performance; US pipeline, India traction key…

About The Stock

Zydus is a leading pharma company with family pedigree having a presence in domestic branded formulations, US generics and is in the process of repurposing itself into niche areas of specialty pharmaceuticals, biosimilars and vaccines.

  • Q3FY23 revenue break-up – US: 46.3%, India: 29.6%, Wellness: 9.9%, Europe & emerging markets including countries in LatAm, Asia Pacific & Africa: 14.2%
  • Zydus is the fourth largest pharma company in India with 14 brands among Top 300 pharma brands in India and nine with ₹ 100 crore+ sales
Q3FY23

Zydus delivered good set of numbers, which beat our estimates.

  • Revenues grew 19.8% YoY at ₹ 4362 crore
  • EBITDA grew 27.2% YoY to ₹ 956 crore. EBITDA margins improved 127 bps YoY to 21.9%
  • Adjusted net profit rose 22.8% YoY to ₹ 622.5 crore
What should Investors do?

Zydus Life’s share price has grown at 18% CAGR over the past three years.

  • We upgrade the stock from HOLD to BUY for improved risk-reward proposition as we see 1) consistency from US business in terms of continued traction in base business and new launches momentum (post Moraiya EIR) and 2) continued traction in Wellness and India formulations
Target Price and Valuation

Valued at ₹ 500 i.e., 14x FY25E EPS of 35.5

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Zydus plans to venture into complex injectable and niche orphan drugs in US. Complex launches are likely to provide meaningful traction from FY24
  • Moraiya launch momentum and base business growth (impending competition in Asacol) in the US
  • India formulations business is likely to stabilise as the company has optically initiated restructuring of business by rationalising slow moving SKUs
  • Pipeline of innovative products like Saroglitazar Magnesium, Desidustat, anti-malarial compound, biologics and 505(b)(2) specialty initiatives
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from Zydus, in our healthcare coverage we like Cipla.

  • Cipla has a long-drawn strategy of targeting four verticals viz. One-India, South Africa & EMs, US generics & specialty and lung leadership
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1290

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 2 Year CAGR (FY23E-FY25E)
Revenues 14,253.1 14,403.5 15,265.2 9.7 17,361.7 18,956.5 20,246.8 8.0
EBITDA 2,742.0 3,387.1 3,340.7 11.9 3,620.5 3,980.9 4,251.8 8.4
EBITDA margins (%) 19.2 23.5 21.9 - 20.9 21.0 21.0 -
Net Profit 1,430.1 2,390.1 2,149.2 4.0 2,311.2 2,764.9 3,638.5 25.5
EPS (|) 14.0 23.3 21.0 - 22.6 27.0 35.5 -
PE (x) 37.4 20.0 19.6 - 19.1 15.9 12.1 -
EV to EBITDA (x) 18.6 14.1 14.1 - 12.7 11.0 9.1 -
RoE (%) 13.8 18.4 12.6 - 12.1 12.8 14.6 -
RoCE (%) 10.7 13.8 12.0 - 12.3 12.3 12.0 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q3FY23 Earnings Summary:Good set of numbers led by solid performance on all the parameters.

  • Revenues grew 19.8% YoY to | 4362 crore. Growth was driven by the US followed by India business. Segmental mix includes India sales, which increased 14.2% YoY to | 1231.6 crore on the back of market share gains and improved ranking in gynaecology, anti-diabetic and nutraceutical portfolio. US formulations revenues increased 29.3% YoY to | 1925 crore, aided by volume expansion in base portfolio and some impact of seasonality. Emerging markets revenues increased 5.6% YoY to | 307.8 crore, on the back of robust performance across key markets. Zydus Wellness’ revenues increased 7.8% YoY to | 412 crore on the back of firm market share in key brands viz. Glucon-D, Nycil and EverYuth (Scrub, Peel-Off). On operational front, EBITDA showed growth of 27.2% YoY to | 956 crore whereas EBITDA margins improved 127 bps YoY to 21.9% despite higher R&D and US related risk evolution and mitigation study (REMS) programme cost. Adjusted PAT improved 22.8% YoY to | 622.5 crore
  • The company’s performance was a beat against our estimates on all fronts. India business continues to do well with market share gain in key therapies. Timely launches and volumes supported US growth. Consumer wellness business maintained a dominating market position in key brands despite the difficult environment. We continue to monitor India and US business momentum as historically these two markets have been persistent laggards vis-à-vis peers, thus having direct implications on its muted valuations

Q3FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights:

Business mix:

  • The overall performance was led by robust growth across businesses. US contributed 46% to the topline followed by India formulation 30%, Consumer wellness 10% and EM 7% during the period
  • US formulation business – Received final approval for Estradiol Transdermal System, which will be manufactured from Moraiya site
  • It filed first ANDA filed from the new oral solids formulations manufacturing facility in Ahmedabad SEZ (SEZ II)
  • In India formulation business - The patient base of the Lipaglyn brand increased by 45% in CY22, thus extending its reach
  • Consumer Wellness – The company has undertaken price increase in order to mitigate inflation, which has cooled down compared to the previous quarters except milk, where it still remains high

Financial metric:

  • The operational performance was largely attributable to robust double digit growth in India and US formulations businesses
  • It undertook price increase, which would reflect in Q4FY24
  • It also incurred one-time REMS setup cost of US$8 million during the quarter for an upcoming launch, where the opportunities are likely to come in from H2FY24
  • R&D spend during the quarter was at 7.9% for which management has guided to remain at 8.5-9% in the near term. R&D is expected to be inclined more towards NCE’s and biologics.
  • Currently 30% of R&D spends is towards specialty and new ventures

Launches:

  • It became the first player to launch Topiramate ER capsules (gTrokendi) in the US in January 2023
  • It plans to launch two transdermal products in FY24
  • Biosimilar focus remains for two to three launches in the next two years in India and other semi-regulated markets

Other highlights:

  • Established products of the company have largely done better than the markets
  • US business to remain strong due to REMS programme and new launches
  • The management expects further value addition from its recent launch of Topiramate ER capsules (gTrokendi) in US
  • They have guided that performance from Biologics/Biosimilar business is stable in India in terms of both revenues and profits
  • The company is taking calibrated measures to develop specialty chemical business
  • Focus remains on inorganics opportunities
  • Revlimid is expected to see higher sales in Q4FY23.
  • Capex for the quarter was at | 255 crore. It expects to continue with | 800-900 crore of run rate for the coming years

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Siddhant Khandekar - Inter CA, Kushal Shah – CFA L1, CFP, Utkarsh Jain - MBA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the... 

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