Commodities Market Live

Copper futures edged up to two-week high in volatile trades today. The metal is currently trading flat $6.26 on modest weakness in the US dollar. In Asia, China`s Shanghai Composite index rose 1.70% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index slipped 0.70%. Japan's Nikkei average added 1.40%. European stocks edged up marginally. The US stocks recovered in last session with gains led by AI chipmakers, while oil prices retreated as investors weighed the Iran conflict. Falling Treasury yields also supported markets despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. MCX Copper is trading almost unchanged at Rs 1292.25 per kg after hitting above Rs 1300 per kg in initial moves. The counter has turned lower throughout the session today.

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Natural Gas futures slumped yesterday as markets eyed elevated US supplies. The United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a natural gas storage change of 61 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ending July 3. Working gas in storage across the United States was 2,983 BCF. In annual terms, this figure shows a decline of 15 billion cubic feet. At the same time, the storage stood 185 billion cubic feet above the five-year average of 2,798 billion cubic feet. The working gas storage remained within the five-year historical range. The US Natural Gas slipped heavily amid weakness in oil prices and broke under $3 per mmbtu mark. The counter is currently trading at $2.97 per mmbtu, down 1.23% on the day and is hovering around seven-week low. MCX Natural Gas futures are trading at Rs 285.40 per mmbtu, down 0.80% on the day.

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COMEX Gold futures eased today, giving up sharp gains in overnight trades as markets remained transfixed on the geopolitical scenario and worries over seasonally weak demand in Indian physical markets weighed on sentiments. COMEX Gold spiked around 1.40% in last session and currently pulled back in Asia today amid supportive risk appetite. However, weakness in the US dollar is capping downside. The metal currently trades down 0.86% at $4104 per ounce. MCX Gold futures are quoting at Rs 144001 per 10 grams, down 0.89% on the day. It opened lower and extended losses after breaking under Rs 145K mark.

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German headline annual inflation came in at 2.3%, unchanged from the preliminary estimate. This represents a slight slowdown from May (2.6%), with the rise in energy prices being less profound this time around. That being said, Destatis does noted that Energy prices continued to rise at an above-average rate as a result of the Iran war and thus remained a key driver of inflation. The year-on-year change for energy prices continue to ease, coming off 3.4% in June. A slight drop in food price inflation also did play a role though, rising by a below-average rate of 0.4% in June. It noted further that core annual inflation is at 2.5% in June and remains unchanged from May.

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WTI Crude oil futures corrected sharply in last session, failing to sustain after recent rally as markets looked for more clarity on the US-Iran war. Oil tanked around 2% but seems to be steadying now amid firm risk appetite. The US stocks rebounded yesterday with gains led by AI chipmakers. Asian equities are also holding up and WTI Crude oil is currently trading at $72.01 per barrel, down 0.19% on the day. Oil is up around 4% this week. MCX Crude oil futures are currently trading at Rs 6845 per barrel, down 0.13% on the day. The counter has been volatile today after hitting highs around Rs 6930 per barrel in early morning trades. Open interest has dropped marginally.

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Base metals are witnessing mixed movement today. MCX Copper futures for July are trading at Rs 1297.40 per kg, up 0.36% on the day. The metal hit above Rs 1300 per kg in intraday moves before easing a bit. MCX Aluminum futures eased 0.31% to trade at Rs 342.90 per kg. MCX Zinc futures added 0.16% to trade at Rs 376.50 per kg. MCX Lead futures eased 0.20% to trade at Rs 200.45 per kg. MCX Nickel futures soared around 1% to trade at Rs 1630.20 per kg.

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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has lowered its growth forecast for developing Asia and the Pacific economies to 4.9% for 2026 compared to 5.5% growth in 2025. This is a reduction of 0.2 percentage points from April projections. Prolonged disruptions to energy markets caused by the Middle East conflict have weighed more heavily on the region’s prospects than anticipated, according to ADB’s latest economic outlook released today. The 2027 growth forecast is maintained at 5.1%, reflecting recovering activity as these pressures ease.

Asian Development Outlook (ADO) July 2026 expects disruptions to global energy markets to unwind only gradually, despite a framework agreement signed in June. With impacts extending beyond energy to fertilizers, other commodity prices, and supply chains, inflationary pressures are likely to persist. Regional inflation is now forecast at 4.3% this year compared to 3% in 2025—an upward revision of 0.7 percentage points from April. The inflation forecast for 2027 remains at 3.4%.

ADO July 2026 warns that renewed conflict escalation and prolonged geopolitical uncertainty remain key risks to the region’s outlook. These could further tighten energy markets, raise risk premia, and intensify inflationary and external pressures. Tighter global financial conditions pose additional risks, with sovereign bond yields and borrowing costs rising, and fiscal deficits projected to widen in several economies. Higher tariffs and elevated trade policy uncertainty could also weigh on activity, while rising fertilizer prices continue to threaten agricultural output and food security.

Growth projections for 2026 are lowered for most subregions, except developing East Asia. Forecasts for the People’s Republic of China are unchanged at 4.6% for 2026 and 4.5% for 2027, supported by strong exports and infrastructure investment. India’s growth forecast is revised down to 6.6% this year, as higher energy costs weigh on domestic demand, and maintained at 7.3% for next year. Growth projections for Southeast Asia and the Pacific are also trimmed, reflecting weaker domestic demand and tourism, rising inflation, and higher import costs.

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The LME Zinc inventories dropped in last session, adding to recent losses. The stockpiles on the exchange slipped 400 tonnes to 115525 tonnes on Thursday, holding around three-week low.

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Japan`s producer price index (PPI) went up by 0.4% in June compared to the previous month, according to a preliminary report released by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on Friday.

The reading marked a slight slowdown from May`s 1.1% increase, while on a year-on-year basis PPI rose 7.1%.

The report also showed that export prices on a contract currency basis increased by 11.1% from a year earlier and fell by 0.4% from the previous month. Import prices rose 17.8% year-on-year and advanced 0.1% month-on-month.

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Asian Development Bank on Thursday lowered India`s GDP growth projection to 6.6 per cent as against 6.9 per cent estimated earlier for the current fiscal on concerns of higher energy prices fuelled by the Middle East crisis. Despite the growth moderation, India still continues to be the fastest-growing major economy in the world, ADB said. India`s GDP growth forecasts are revised down to 6.6 per cent for FY2026 (ending 31 March 2027) and maintained at 7.3 per cent for FY2027, Asian Development Outlook (ADO) July 2026 said. Growth will be supported by policy interventions to attract more foreign capital, as well as fuel tax cuts, targeted credit support, strong services exports, and public capital expenditure. The FY2027 growth forecast remains unchanged from April, underpinned by improved global conditions and export competitiveness gained through trade agreements with various partners. However, risks tilt to the downside driven by heightened geopolitical tensions, or weather-induced weakness in agriculture, ADB noted.

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WTI crude oil futures are holding to recent gains above $72 per barrel mark on Friday amid uncertainty regarding developments surrounding the Middle East crisis. The US military reportedly unleashed a new wave of strikes against Iran earlier this week in retaliation for Tehran's attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran also responded by targeting American allies and bombing US military installations across Bahrain and Kuwait. However, further rise in the commodity may be capped as the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a larger-than-expected build in inventories for the week ending July 3, marking the first rise in 11 weeks. Nevertheless, the counter is set to register modest weekly gains and snap a four-week losing streak.

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COMEX Copper extends recovery on Friday morning in Asia tracking positive cues from equities. Asian stock markets are trading mostly higher on Friday, following the broadly positive cues from Wall Street overnight, boosted by the surge in semiconductor and AI stocks. The Nasdaq ended the day just off its high of the session, jumping 336.24 points or 1.3 percent to 26,206.89. The S&P 500 also advanced 60.93 points or 0.8 percent to 7,543.64, while the narrower Dow rose 139.02 points or 0.3 percent to 52,487.41. Macros were also in focus as the International Monetary Fund noted that the global economy navigated the Iran war better than anticipated. COMEX Copper futures are currently trading at $6.31 per pound, up 0.69% on the day following an over 2.5% surge in the previous session.

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COMEX gold and silver were relatively steady on Friday morning in Asia as dollar demand dampened on expectations that US and Iran will continue peace negotiations despite a recent escalation . Nevertheless, escalating tensions between the US and Iran could drive crude oil prices higher, stoking inflation fears and forcing the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain its higher-for-longer rate stance. The dollar index slipped under 100.50 mark. The recent minutes from the Fed's June meeting, reflected a divided central bank not sure how to proceed on rates without more information on inflation. Meanwhile, the yellow metal is holding at $4135.30 an ounce and silver is up 0.28% at $60.92 per ounce.

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Existing home sales in the United States decreased by 2.4% in June compared to the previous month and stood at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shared in a report on Thursday. On an annual basis, sales advanced by 2.8%.

The median sales price for existing homes across all types increased by 1.8% year-over-year to $440,600. At the end of June, total housing inventory was 1.56 million units, a 0.6% decrease from the previous month and a 1.3% decline compared to June 2025.

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The number of seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims in the United States declined by 2,000 from last week`s revised figure to 215,000 in the week ending July 4, the US Department of Labor revealed in its report on Thursday. The figure came in lower than analysts anticipated, while the four-week moving average decreased by 3,750 from the previous week`s revised average to reach 218,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate for the week ending June 27 stood at 1.2%, unchanged from the week before. Meanwhile, the insured unemployed figure for the same week stood at 1,814,000, rising by 8,000 from the previous week`s revised figure, and the four-week moving average was up by 7,000 to land at 1,808,000.

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COMEX Copper futures stayed largely supported today as markets eyed equities. In Asia, China`s Shanghai Composite index rose 1.70% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index slipped 0.70%. Japan's Nikkei average added 1.40%. European stocks edged up modestly. The US stocks came under pressure after President Donald Trump said the ceasefire agreement was over. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.1%. This pulled Copper down around 2%, dragging it near one-week low. However, a bounce emerged in the counter today. Macros were also in focus as The International Monetary Fund noted that the global economy navigated the Iran war better than anticipated. COMEX Copper futures are currently trading at $6.24 per pound, up 2.14% on the day. MCX Copper futures are up 1.36% at Rs 1285.30 per kg.

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EIA stated yesterday that US crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.0 million barrels per day during the week ending July 3, 2026, which was 173 thousand barrels per day less than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 95.8% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.7 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased, averaging 5.2 million barrels per day.

The US crude oil imports averaged 5.6 million barrels per day last week, increased by 351 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 5.4 million barrels per day, 11.4% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 423 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 87 thousand barrels per day.

EIA noted that commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3.0 million barrels from the previous week. At 411.4 million barrels, US crude oil inventories are about 6% below the five-year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.9 million barrels from last week and are 6% below the five-year average for this time of year. Both finished gasoline and blending component inventories decreased last week.

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The UK house prices saw subdued moves in June; a survey showed on Thursday. The latest residential market survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors showed house prices largely unchanged month-on-month, with a negative balance of -33. The balance stood at -34 in April and -35 in May. New buyer enquiries edged up compared to May's -34 but remained in negative territory at -29. Looking ahead, and near-term price expectations were also subdued. However, at -32 they were less markedly negative than May's -44, and longer-term, the 12-month expectations balance ticked up two points to 8.

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COMEX Gold futures edged up impressively today as $4000 per ounce mark has offered a good floor for the metal. COMEX Gold is also eying unrest on geopolitical front as worries on US-Iran ceasefire deal are boosting safe-haven demand. The metal currently trades up 0.80% at $4115 per ounce. Gold has tumbled heavily yesterday as firm US dollar took a toll on the commodity though a generally steady undertone in fund buying is keeping sentiments supported. Global gold ETFs' AUM reached US$526billion (bn) by the end of June, a 6% fall in H1 due mainly to a lower gold price while collective holdings in the first half were up 18 tonnes (t) to 4,047t. COMEX Gold is up 0.81% at $4116 per ounce. MCX Gold futures are trading at Rs 144560 per 10 grams, up 0.59% on the day after hitting highs above Rs 144900 per 10 grams.

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The German trade surplus amounted to '19.1 billion in May, up from April`s '14.7 billion and '18.8 billion registered in May 2025, the country's Federal Statistical Office Destatis revealed in a report on Thursday.

The country`s calendar and seasonally adjusted exports stood at '137.9 billion, increasing 0.9% on a monthly level and 6.1% year over year. Imports stood at '118.8 billion, down 2.5% month on month but up 6.9% on an annual level.

Exports to the European Union fell by 1.1% in May compared to April, coming in at '78.3 billion, while imports declined 2.5% to '59.5 billion. Exports to the non-EU countries jumped 3.6% month on month to '59.6 billion, while imports decreased 2.6% to '59.4 billion.

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WTI Crude oil prices are holding around two-week high of $73 per barrel after soaring more than 4% in last session. Fresh Middle-east supply worries are weighing on the counter but traders are also eying a rise in US supplies as US crude oil inventories increased by 3.0 million barrels. This pulled the counter down in intraday moves yesterday and it is currently trading down 0.20% at $73.28 per barrel. International Monetary Fund or IMF noted in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) update that global Energy prices are projected to remain higher than they were before the war: The average petroleum spot price index is projected at $89 per barrel, 9 percent higher than assumed under the reference forecast in the April 2026 WEO, and natural gas prices (based on Dutch Title Transfer Facility futures) at $15, 5 percent higher than the April reference forecast price. This corresponds to an increase of 32 percent in crude oil prices and 22 percent in natural gas prices in 2026, relative to 2025.

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Base metals edged up steadily today. MCX Copper futures for July are trading at Rs 1276.50 per kg, up 0.66% on the day. The metal fell around Rs 1264 per kg in intraday moves before witnessing a rebound. MCX Aluminum futures rose 0.39% to trade at Rs 338.75 per kg. MCX Zinc futures added 1.06% to trade at Rs 372.70 per kg. MCX Lead futures gained 0.53% to trade at Rs 200.10 per kg. MCX Nickel futures moved up 0.66% to trade at Rs 1577.70 per kg.

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Energy Information Administration or EIA has stated in a latest update that the US petroleum exports reached a record in April as disruptions to international crude oil and refined product flows through the Strait of Hormuz increased global demand for U.S. exports. Exports increased to 13.6 million barrels per day (b/d) in April, 15% more than the previous record set in March. Crude oil exports made up the largest share of total petroleum exports, averaging 5.6 million b/d in April, 21% more than the previous record set in December 2023. Propane made up the second-largest share, with exports exceeding the 2.0 million b/d mark for the first time in monthly data, and distillate fuel oil made up the third-largest share, increasing to 1.6 million b/d, the most since July 2017. EIA noted that US exports of finished petroleum products'which is mostly made up of distillate fuel oil, motor gasoline, jet fuel, and petroleum coke'were the highest since December 2024, despite relatively average exports of motor gasoline. Exports of jet fuel, unfinished oils, and naphtha each reached record highs in March and remained high in April but slightly below their record levels.

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International Monetary Fund or IMF has stated in a latest update that global inflation is expected to pause its steady decline. Headline inflation is projected to rise from 4.1 percent in 2025 to 4.7 percent in 2026 before easing to 3.9 percent in 2027, with the increase for 2026 driven mainly by higher energy and food prices. The forecast for 2026 is revised upward by 0.3 percentage point from the April 2026 IMF update, whereas that for 2027 is revised upward by 0.2 percentage point. Inflation dynamics are expected to remain uneven across countries, reflecting differences in exchange rate pass-through, the persistence of services price inflation, labor market conditions, and the growing importance of country-specific factors. Core inflation is expected to return to target only gradually in several major economies: by mid-2027 in the United Kingdom, by the end of 2027 in Japan and the United States, and only in 2028 in the euro area. Inflation in China is expected to rise from low levels.

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World Gold Council or WGC has stated in a latest update that Gold-backed exchange traded funds or ETFs flows data for June saw continued outflows from funds listed in all regions, yet global gold ETF flows have remained positive y-t-d. Global gold ETFs’ AUM reached US$526billion (bn) by the end of June, a 6% fall in H1 due mainly to a lower gold price; collective holdings in the first half were up 18 tonnes (t) to 4,047t. Gold market trading volumes pulled back in June yet the H1 average reached an all-time high. Global investors further trimmed their gold ETF holdings in June. Physically backed gold ETFs1 saw outflows of US$8.9bn in the month. All regions experienced outflows with North America losing the most. In the month, global gold ETFs’ total assets under management (AUM) fell 13% to US$526bn, whilst holdings reduced by 74t to 4,047t. Despite June’s loss, global gold ETF flows remained positive at US$8 billion in H1. Asia dominated global inflows – the region’s strongest H1 on record – while North America was the only region with losses. Europe saw healthy inflows. Global gold ETFs’ AUM fell 6% in H1, reflecting the lower gold price despite positive inflows. Collective holdings rose slightly by 18t.

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LME lead inventories continued to drop after hitting highest in more than a decade. The inventories slipped by 650 tonnes on Wednesday to 291425 tonnes, testing seven-week low.

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The International Monetary Fund on Wednesday modestly downgraded its outlook for the world economy this year, citing the energy shock caused by the Iran war. But the fallout from the conflict is being partially offset by booming investment in artificial intelligence and other technologies. Global growth is projected to be 3.0 percent in 2026 and 3.4 percent in 2027, down from the average of 3.5 percent observed in 2024'25 and broadly unchanged on a cumulative basis compared with the forecasts in the April 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO). The modest slowdown reflects the effects of the war in the Middle East being partly offset by accelerated demand-driven momentum in the global technology cycle thanks to advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and its adoption, IMF said. Meanwhile, global headline inflation is expected to increase from 4.1 percent in 2025 to 4.7 percent in 2026 before declining to 3.9 percent in 2027. Slightly revised upward from April, these projections indicate that the disinflation trend in place since the beginning of 2024 has stalled, the Fund noted. The possibility of renewed Middle East conflict looms large and could extend commodity price volatility, further threaten supply chains, raise prices, and weigh on financial conditions, the IMF further noted.

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COMEX copper is staying pressured near a two week low on Thursday morning in Asia as the dollar index holds near 101 and remains on track for weekly gains as a renewed conflict in the Middle East keeps safe-haven demand for the currency supported. Besides, steep losses on Wall Street overnight as US President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran has ended, stoking concerns that a renewal of war could again drive inflation and push up interest rates weighed on the red metal which is currently quoting at $6.11 per pound. The Dow slumped 576.76 points or 1.1 percent to 52,348.39, pulling back further off their record closing high set on Monday. The S&P 500 also fell 21.14 points or 0.3 percent to 7,482.71, but the Nasdaq rose 51.96 points or 0.2 percent to 25,870.65.

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The precious metal extends its downside as US President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran has ended, stoking concerns that a renewal of war could again drive inflation and push up interest rates. COMEX gold and silver futures plunged sharply yesterday and extended decline on Thursday morning as US President reportedly threatened to bomb Iran for a second day and reimpose the US naval blockade in retaliation for attacks on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz. This could reinforce expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may keep interest rates higher for longer to combat stubborn inflation. The yellow metal slumped under $4100 mark while silver is holding at around $58.26 per ounce mark.

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The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released its June meeting minutes on Wednesday, indicating that interest rate cuts are likely to occur even later than expected, as no changes were anticipated in the target range through the beginning of 2027 and one rate cut in the second quarter of next year.

The report added that policymakers were divided last month over the trajectory of interest rates. "A few participants commented that there was a case for raising the target range for the federal funds rate, but those participants indicated that they supported maintaining the current target range at this meeting."

The minutes continued by noting that core goods price inflation had "risen relative to a year earlier," which the staff judged as largely reflecting the effects of tariffs and AI-related price pressures.

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China`s consumer price index (CPI) went up by 1.0% in June from a year earlier, narrowing from May`s 1.2% rise, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Thursday. On a monthly basis, prices fell 0.3%, following a 0.1% decline in May. Factory-gate prices improved, with the producer price index climbing 4.1% from a year earlier, after last month`s 3.9% increase.

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Wholesale inventories in the United States increased by 0.1% in May compared to the revised April reading, reaching $941.8 billion, the Census Bureau said in its report published on Wednesday. Year-over-year, the figure was up by 4%.

Sales of merchant wholesalers, adjusted for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, stood at $817.4 billion, climbing 3.4% on a monthly basis and surging 18.1% on an annual basis.

The ratio between inventories and sales for merchant wholesalers was 1.15, compared to 1.31 registered in May 2025.

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Crude oil inventories in the United States saw a surprise increase of 3.0 million barrels during the week ending July 3, according to new data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released on Wednesday. The increase brings commercial stockpiles to 411.4 million barrels, according to government data, which are now 6% below the five-year average for this time of year. The EIA's data release follows API's figures that were released a day earlier, which reported that crude oil inventories saw a small draw of 399,000 barrels in the period. For total motor gasoline, the EIA reported that inventories had decreased by 1.9 million barrels, compared to the week prior's 2.3 million barrel build. The most recent figures showed that average daily gasoline production decreased to 9.7 million barrels.

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COMEX Copper futures slumped in tune with global risk aversion as West Asian crisis yet again grabbed the headlines. In Asia, China's Shanghai Composite index fell 0.49% while Japan's Nikkei 225 index fell 2.11% as tech stocks stayed under stress. European markets fell sharply too. German DAX slumped 2.30%. The US stocks turned lower on Tuesday. Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.25%, while the S&P 500 index fell 0.45%, and the NASDAQ Composite index lost 1.16%. COMEX Copper is down 2% at $6.09 per pound, testing near two-week low. MCX Copper futures for July are trading at Rs 1263.30 per kg, down 1 % on the day as losses were curbed due to weakness in INR.

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Base metals saw choppy moves today. MCX Copper futures for July are trading at Rs 1260.50 per kg, down 1.20% on the day. The metal fell near Rs 1260 per kg in intraday moves. MCX Aluminum futures spiked 1.70% to trade at Rs 338.80 per kg on fresh supply worries due to Middle-East escalation. MCX Zinc futures are down 0.08% at Rs 368.80 per kg. MCX Lead futures added 0.15% to trade at Rs 198.50 per kg. MCX Nickel futures edged up 0.20% to trade at Rs 1570.50 per kg.

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Delayed monsoon has impacted kharif sowing. Total acreage has declined to 350.85 lakh hectares as on 6 July 2026, marking a 21% decrease from 442.8 lakh hectares last year, agriculture ministry data showed. Area under main kharif crop paddy is down by 13% to 60.24 lakh hectares. The pulses sowing has also dipped 22% to 37.15 lakh while area under coverage for coarse cereals fell around 16% to 60.12 lakh hectares. Sowing area under oilseeds tumbled 40% to 66.31 lakh hectares. Cotton sowing also dropped 23% to 63.18 lakh hectares.

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Gold prices remained under pressure on Wednesday, with the precious metal slipping below the $4,100-an-ounce mark as renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East fueled a sharp rally in crude oil prices. Fresh US air strikes on Iran and concerns over potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz reignited inflation worries, dampening sentiment for bullion by strengthening expectations that global interest rates could remain elevated for longer. Investors also turned cautious ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve`s June meeting minutes, seeking fresh guidance on the future path of monetary policy. Reflecting the weaker global trend, MCX August gold futures declined more than 1% to ₹1,43,511 per 10 grams, while MCX September silver futures plunged nearly 3% to ₹2,25,285 per kg. Persistent geopolitical uncertainty continues to support safe-haven demand, but rising inflation expectations and higher oil prices are weighing on gold`s near-term outlook.

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Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered its first interest rate increase in three years. The central bank also signaled that further rate hikes may be necessary, although the timing and magnitude of any additional tightening will depend on incoming economic data, inflation trends, and the strength of economic activity. The Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee increased the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% on Wednesday.

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A measure of the public assessment of the current situation of the Japanese economy improved less than expected in June, survey data from the Cabinet Office showed on Wednesday.

The current conditions index of the Economy Watchers` Survey rose to a 4-month high of 44.0 in June from 43.6 in May.

Corporate-related activities climbed 1.9 points to 45.6 in June, while household activity-related measures decreased from 43.8 to 43.5.

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Crude oil prices surged on Wednesday as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East reignited concerns over potential supply disruptions. Market sentiment strengthened after fresh US military strikes on Iranian targets intensified fears of heightened conflict in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global energy trade. The dollar index traded under 101 as investors awaited the minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting for additional clues on the policy outlook after the central bank adopted a more hawkish tone at its June policy meeting. Elsewhere, data on Tuesday showed the US trade deficit widened to $77.6 billion in May. Brent crude advanced 3% to $76.57 per barrel, while WTI crude gained 3% to $72.74. On the domestic front, MCX July crude oil futures soared 3.5% to ₹6,938. The renewed geopolitical risk premium has reinforced bullish momentum in oil markets, with investors closely monitoring further developments that could impact global crude supplies.

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LME Nickel inventories stayed flat in last session after recent slide. The inventories are currently at 274620 tonnes, lingering around six month low.

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A sharp move to the downside by stocks on Wall Street and a firming dollar overseas is seen dampening sentiments in the red metal in early Asia on Wednesday. The major averages all finished the day in negative territory, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing a notable decline. The Nasdaq tumbled 302.47 points or 1.2 percent to 25,818.69, the S&P 500 fell 33.58 points or 0.5 percent to 7,503.85 and the Dow dipped 130.76 points or 0.3 percent to 52,925.15. Meanwhile, DXY regained momentum on the back of renewed tension between US and Iran. Currently, COMEX copper is trading at $6.21 per pound, down 0.20% on the day.

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Japan`s current account surplus widened to JPY 3,968.3 billion in May 2026 from JPY 3,320.5 billion a year earlier. The improvement was driven by a return to a marginal goods surplus as export growth of 14.7% outpaced import growth of 8.1%, while the primary income surplus increased and the secondary income deficit narrowed.

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COMEX gold and silver futures surrender recent gains and pull back from a two-week high on Wednesday morning in Asia tracking firmness in greenback overseas following renewed tensions between US and Iran. Reported US air strikes on Iran drove oil prices higher, fueling inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations of interest rate hikes that kept dollar index upbeat. Meanwhile, investors also wait for the minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting for additional insight into the policy outlook. Currently, the yellow metal is quoting at $4141.40 an ounce whereas silver futures are also trading lower at $61.16 per ounce.

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Australia`s private house approvals rose 2.8% m/m to 10,537 units in May 2026, rebounding from a 0.4% decline in April and marking the strongest monthly increase since September 2025. Annual approvals increased 13.2%, the fastest pace since September 2024, supported by gains in Western Australia, New South Wales, and Victoria.

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The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United States fell by 399,000 barrels in the week ending July 3. In the week prior, US crude oil inventories fell by 6.072 million barrels. Although commercial crude oil inventories excluding the SPR have been falling rapidly for more than two months, shedding almost 60 million barrels over the last twelve weeks, US crude inventories are only down 8.6 million barrels so far this year, according to API data, kept in check by draws from the SPR. Gasoline inventories fell last week, by 2.929 million barrels in the week ending July 3. In the week prior, gasoline inventories decreased by 2.106 million barrels.

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The United States economy added 21,000 jobs on average in the four weeks ending June 20 compared to the previous seven days, Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) revealed in its report published on Tuesday.

In the previous week, the figure stood at 30,750. "Hiring slowed for a second week," ADP noted.

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The United States trade deficit in goods and services saw a monthly increase of $23 billion or 42.2% to $77.6 billion in May, the country`s Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said in their report published on Tuesday.

Exports from the US declined by 3.2% or $10.5 billion month-on-month to $317.7 billion. On the other hand, imports to the country rose by 3.3% or $12.5 billion to $395.3 billion.

On an annual basis, the overall trade deficit decreased by 40.6% or $203.9 billion. Exports went up by 11.7% or $164.7 billion. Meanwhile, imports dropped by 2.1% or $39.2 billion.

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MCX Gold futures for Aug-26 turned lower but price action in volatile. The counter tested lows around Rs 145100-145200 zone and currently trades down 0.39% at Rs 146342 per 10 grams with a 3.02% increase in open interest. MCX Silver futures are down 1.48% at Rs 232599 per kg after briefly testing lows under Rs 230000 per kg.

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COMEX Copper futures are witnessing tight moves, holding around one-week high. The red metal has been supported on a sustained drop in LME Copper inventories and a recent slide in the US dollar is also playing a part in boosting sentiments. However, today's price action was choppy for copper as Asian markets saw hefty losses. China`s Shanghai Composite index fell around 1.30% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index slipped around 0.51%. Japan's Nikkei average lost 2.10%. Asian equity markets fell on selling in technology stocks. South Korea`s KOSPI tumbled around 5%. European stocks are choppy. German DAX is down around half a percent. A rebound for AI stocks lifted the US market on Monday. The S&P 500 rose 0.7% and pulled back within 1% of its all-time high. The strength for companies in the artificial-intelligence technology industry sent the Nasdaq composite 1.1% higher and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3% to a record. Copper gained around 1% in last session.

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The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) averaged 130.3 points in June 2026, down 0.4 points (0.3 percent) from its May level. Increases in the price indices for vegetable oils and meat were offset by declines in sugar, cereals, and dairy products. Compared to a year earlier, the FFPI stood 2.2 points (1.7 percent) higher but remained 29.9 points (18.7 percent) below its peak reached in March 2022.

The FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 110.2 points in June, down 4.0 points (3.5 percent) from May but still 2.9 points (2.7 percent) above its June 2025 level. World wheat prices declined by 4.4 percent, as rapid harvest progress and strong supply prospects in the Black Sea region outweighed concerns over crop prospects in the United States of America and Australia. While recent rainfall eased risks in parts of Australia, El Niño-related dryness and higher input costs continued to weigh on production prospects. World maize prices also fell by 6.2 percent, reflecting prospects of ample supplies in exporting countries in South America, alongside declining crude oil prices that weighed on biofuel demand.

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 192.0 points in June, up 7.0 points (3.8 percent) month on month and 23.3 percent above its year-ago level. The increase in the index reflected the combined effect of higher palm and rapeseed oil quotations and broadly stable sunflower oil prices. Global rapeseed oil prices continued to rise, driven largely by firm biofuel demand and unfavourable weather conditions affecting plantings in Australia and Canada.

The FAO Meat Price Index averaged 131.0 points in June, up 0.5 points (0.4 percent) from May and 5.0 points (4.0 percent) above its level a year earlier, reaching a new record high.

The FAO Dairy Price Index averaged 117.4 points in June, down 1.7 points (1.5 percent) from May, and 38.1 points (24.5 percent) below its level in June 2025. Prices softened across all dairy products, although the underlying market conditions continued to diverge by product. Skim milk powder (SMP) prices declined slightly, ending a five-month run of increases, as recovering output in the European Union and improved availabilities in the United States of America coincided with easing demand after several months of price increases.

The FAO Sugar Price Index averaged 89.7 points in June, down 5.4 points (5.7 percent) from May and 13.8 points (13.3 percent) below its level a year ago. Lower domestic ethanol prices in Brazil, which declined for the third consecutive month in June, encouraged greater allocation of sugarcane to sugar production and contributed to the decline in international sugar prices. Additional downward pressure on prices stemmed from the strong pace of sugar exports from Brazil, supported by the depreciation of the Brazilian real against the United States dollar.

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The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the Article IV Consultation for Chile. It noted that economic activity has remained robust in the country, with GDP growing at 2.5 percent in 2025 driven by strong non‑mining domestic demand. Inflation declined to the central bank’s target in early 2026 but has since increased due to higher energy prices associated with the conflict in the Middle East. Fiscal deficits have persisted due to revenue underperformance, but public debt remains moderate. The financial system is sound overall, although vulnerabilities persist in construction and real estate.

GDP growth is expected to soften to 1.8 percent in 2026, rising to 2.6 percent in 2027 supported by higher copper prices. Inflation is expected to remain temporarily above target in 2026 and early 2027 before converging back to target. The implementation of announced fiscal consolidation measures should help gradually narrow the fiscal deficit over the medium term. However, achieving the government’s objective of reaching structural balance by 2030 and keeping the debt-to-GDP ratio below 45 percent will require additional fiscal efforts. The external position is expected to remain broadly in line with medium‑term fundamentals.

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Gold futures slipped towards the $4,100-an-ounce level on Tuesday, while MCX August gold futures declined more than 1% to Rs 145,431 per 10 grams, as investors turned cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve`s June meeting minutes. The recent rally, fuelled by weaker-than-expected US jobs data and easing expectations of near-term rate hikes, lost momentum as traders booked profits before the key policy release. Despite the US dollar remaining below the 101 mark following softer labour market data, a modest intraday recovery in the greenback weighed on bullion prices. Investors are also monitoring the latest US trade deficit data for additional signals on the economic outlook and the Federal Reserve`s next policy move.

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Energy speculators continued to trim their net long positions in the crude oil futures market unchanged, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The non-commercial futures contracts of Crude oil futures, traded by large speculators, hedge funds and retailers, totaled a net long position of 110531 contracts in the data reported through week ended June 30, 2026. This marked a weekly fall of 4102 contracts and pulled net longs to six-month low.

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Crude oil prices gained more than 1% to around $69.5 per barrel on Tuesday as investors awaited the release of the Federal Reserve`s June meeting minutes for fresh guidance on the US interest rate outlook. Sentiment was supported by a weaker US dollar after softer-than-expected June jobs data reinforced expectations that the Fed may delay further rate hikes, making dollar-priced commodities more attractive. However, gains remained capped by concerns over improving oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and expectations of higher OPEC+ production, raising fears of a potential supply surplus in the coming months. Reflecting the positive global trend, MCX crude oil futures for July delivery rose nearly 1.5% to Rs 6,628 per barrel.

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Precious metals speculators sharply increased their net long positions in the Silver futures markets last week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators, hedge funds and retailers, totaled a net position of 27368 contracts in the data reported through June 30, 2026. This was a weekly rise of 3617 net contracts and pulled them to six-month high.

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Industrial production in Germany rose 0.9% month on month in May, the country`s Federal Statistical Office Destatis revealed in its report published on Tuesday. Output in the industry was unchanged in comparison to the same timeframe a year ago.

The largest contributor to the monthly increase was the automotive industry, as production in the sector grew 3.6% in May compared to April. In addition, production of capital goods added 1.3%, and the manufacture of consumer goods gained 1.2% on a monthly level. Meanwhile, the production of intermediate goods declined 0.4%.

Production in industry, excluding energy and construction, increased 0.8% in May compared to the previous month, and down 1% compared to May 2025.

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Base metals saw mixed action today and some selling pressure was visible. MCX Copper futures for July are trading at Rs 1280.15 per kg, down 0.56% on the day. The metal fell around Rs 1276 per kg in intraday moves. MCX Aluminum futures added 0.12% to trade at Rs 332.85 per kg. MCX Zinc futures eased 0.32% at Rs 369.60 per kg. MCX Lead futures slipped 0.13% to trade at Rs 198.35 per kg. MCX Nickel futures fell 0.37% to trade at Rs 1567.20 per kg.

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Base metal speculators continued to reduce their longs in the Copper futures market, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The non-commercial futures contracts of Copper futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds and retailers totalled a net long position of 64788 contracts in the data reported through June 30, 2026, falling by 6832 contracts and slipping to two-month low.

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Precious metals speculators continued to hike their net long position in the Gold futures, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators, hedge funds and retailers, totalled a net position of 194019 contracts in the data reported through June 30, 2026, rising by 12680 contracts from the previous week. The net longs have hit around six-month high now.

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The LME Zinc inventories dipped in last session, adding to recent losses. The stockpiles on the exchange slipped 250 tonnes to 118425 tonnes on Monday, testing near three-week low.

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The World Bank has projected a gradual slowdown in China`s economic growth, forecasting a rate of 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027. This assessment is influenced by ongoing adjustments within the country`s property sector and a notable cautiousness among consumers. The report cautioned that the outlook carries balanced risks. A potential deepening of the property downturn could put additional pressure on consumer spending and investment in real estate and sectors related to it. These predictions highlight the broader adjustments taking place in China's economy as it contends with shifting demands in its housing market and cautious spending habits among its consumers.

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Silver prices fell more than 2% to trade below $61 an ounce on Tuesday as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve`s June meeting minutes, which could provide fresh clues on the future path of US interest rates. Although weaker-than-expected US jobs data and a softer dollar reinforced expectations of a more patient Fed, traders largely opted to book profits after the recent rally. Reflecting the subdued global sentiment, MCX September silver futures also declined nearly 2% to Rs 231,274 per kg.

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Japan`s household spending fell 0.4% year-on-year in May 2026, marking a sixth consecutive monthly decline but the mildest in the current stretch, indicating improving consumer resilience. On a monthly basis, spending rose 3.7%, the strongest increase since November, supported by higher expenditure on food, furniture, healthcare, clothing, and education.

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Japan`s foreign reserves fell by USD 18.40 billion to USD 1.287 trillion at the end of June 2026, extending the previous month`s decline. The drop was mainly driven by lower foreign currency reserves, while gold holdings stood at USD 109.51 billion, according to Japan`s Ministry of Finance.

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COMEX copper is retreating from a near one-week high on Tuesday morning in Asia as dollar recovered briefly amidst reports of renewed geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Nevertheless, positive cues from US markets are likely to limit downside for the counter. Stocks on the Wall Street moved mostly higher during trading on Monday. The major averages all moved to the upside, with the Dow reaching a new record closing high. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led the way higher, jumping 288.49 points or 1.1 percent to 26,121.16. The S&P 500 also advanced 54.19 points or 0.7 percent to 7,537.43, while the Dow rose 155.84 points or 0.3 percent to 53,055.91. Currently, the red metal is quoting at $6.21 per pound, down 0.40% on the day.

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COMEX gold and silver futures snap a four day rally and inch lower on Tuesday morning in Asia tracking dollar recovery amid tensions over the Strait of Hormuz. Despite a fragile US-Iran interim agreement, tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remain elevated as Iran seeks to tighten control over the strategic waterway. Nevertheless, DXY is staying well below 101 mark on reduced bets of US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike. Meanwhile, US ISM Services PMI fell to 54.0 in June 2026, down from 54.5 in May, indicating solid expansion in US services activity, though at a softer pace, driven by a slowdown in business activity growth. The yellow metal is currently quoting at $4144.30 an ounce, down almost half a percent on the day. Silver is down more than 1% at $61.46 per ounce.

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Crude oil prices briefly edged higher on Tuesday morning in Asia amidst reports of renewed geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz as media reports claim Iran fired at least two missiles at commercial vessels transiting the strategic waterway late Monday. WTI crude oil futures were trading higher by nearly 1% at $69.19 per barrel although the counter continues to linger around a four month low. Brent futures are also up 0.92% at 72.65 per barrel. OPEC+ members, meanwhile, approved a quota increase of 188,000 barrels per day for next month, continuing a progressive unwinding of long-standing production curbs as market conditions normalize.

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The United States` service sector activity expanded at a slower pace in June, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday. The Services Purchasing Managers` Index (PMI) came in at 54%, down from May`s 54.5%.

The Business Activity Index decreased to 54.4% from 57.7%, while the New Orders Index declined to 55.1% from 57.3%. The Employment Index expanded for the first time in four months at 51.2%, compared to 47.9% in May. Supplier Deliveries fell to 54.4% from 55.2%.

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The latest S&P Global survey showed that business activity in the US services sector improved slightly in June, supported by stronger new business and gradually stabilizing economic conditions. The headline S&P Global US Services PMI Business Activity Index rose to 51.2 in June from 50.7 in May, marking the third consecutive month of expansion, although growth remained modest and below post-pandemic averages.

New orders increased at the fastest pace since February, helped by new project wins and higher demand linked to the FIFA World Cup. However, export business declined for the seventh straight month due to uncertainty over government policies and tariffs. Employment fell for the third time in four months as companies continued to avoid replacing staff who left voluntarily.

Input costs remained high because of higher labour expenses, tariffs and fuel prices, although cost inflation eased to its slowest pace since February. Selling price inflation was little changed from May and stayed historically elevated. Business confidence improved to its highest level since February, supported by expectations of better economic conditions, easing price pressures and new projects.

The S&P Global US Composite PMI also strengthened to 51.9 in June from 51.5 in May, reflecting strong manufacturing output and a modest rise in services activity, despite continued declines in employment.

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COMEX Copper futures saw steady moves today. The metal currently trades up 0.90% at $6.22 per pound amid mixed equities overall. In Asia, China`s Shanghai Composite index eased marginally while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index gained 1.1%. Japan's Nikkei average ended flat. European stocks are witnessing thin moves though overall sentiments are steady. Dow hits fresh record as weak jobs data lifted interest rate-cut hopes while AI chip stocks drag Nasdaq lower. Copper gained more than one percent in last week. MCX Copper futures are trading at Rs 1286.65 per kg, up 0.14% on the day after almost hitting Rs 1390 per kg in intraday moves.

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Retail trade in the Eurozone experienced a monthly rise of 0.2% in May, the European Commission`s statistical office Eurostat revealed in its report published on Monday. In the European Union, it went up by 0.5%. On an annual basis, the figure increased by 1.6% in the euro area and 1.9% in the EU.

Month-on-month, the Eurozone saw growth of 0.6% in retail sales of food, drinks, and tobacco, and 0.1% in non-food products. The sales of automotive fuel in specialized stores declined by 0.5%. In the EU, retail trade in food, drinks, and tobacco went up by 0.6%, and in non-food products by 0.5%. The figure for automotive fuel in specialized stores dropped by 0.4%.

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Producer prices in the Eurozone and the entire European Union rose by 0.2% in May, when compared to the previous month, the European Commission`s statistical office, Eurostat, revealed in a report released on Monday. Meanwhile, year over year, the index recorded a 5.9% growth in the euro area and 5.7% the EU.

In the Eurozone, on a monthly basis, energy prices and non-durable consumer goods decreased 1.0% and 0.1%, respectively. Meanwhile, intermediate goods, capital goods, and durable consumer goods increased 1.4%, 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively. In the entire bloc, the prices showed the same increases and the same rises in the same manner described for the euro area.

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The US Natural Gas futures are up today but weakness in oil prices and moderating temperatures across US capped gains. Storage levels are comfortable too. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a large build in natural gas storage for the week ending June 26. The actual injection stood at 87 billion cubic feet (BCF). According to the EIA, working gas in underground storage across the Lower 48 states totaled 2,922 BCF as of that Friday. Current stocks are 23 BCF lower than the level recorded at the same time last year. However, the storage stands 175 BCF above the five-year average of 2,747 BCF. The US Natural Gas futures are up 1.16% at $3.23 per mmbtu. MCX Natural Gas futures are currently trading at Rs 308.40 per mmbtu, down 0.64% on the day but are well off intraday lows near Rs 301 per mmbtu.

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Gold futures climbed above $4,200 an ounce on Monday, extending last week`s rally as weaker-than-expected US labor market data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a less aggressive policy stance. June nonfarm payrolls increased by just 57,000'the slowest pace in four months'prompting markets to scale back the probability of a September rate hike from 65% to nearly 50'53%. The retreat in oil prices to pre-conflict levels has further eased inflation concerns, while softer Treasury yields continued to enhance gold`s appeal as a non-yielding asset. Although the US dollar index edged up to around 100.8, the broader decline in rate-hike expectations kept bullion well supported. Investors will now closely scrutinize the release of the FOMC meeting minutes later this week for fresh insights into the Federal Reserve`s policy trajectory and the outlook for precious metals.

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According to the latest data from the Gujarat Agriculture Directorate, the latest sowing data showed that the total acreage under summer crops stood at 12.71 lakh hectares as on 29 June 2026, down 62.50% compared to the same period last year. Area under total cereals stood at 0.38 lakh hectares, up 6.40% on year. Pulses area slumped by 83% at 0.05 lakh hectares. Oilseeds area fell by 73% on year to 4.29 lakh hectares. Area under Groundnut - the major commodity in the oilseeds group fell 73.30% to 4.12 lakh hectares. In other major commodities, acreage under Cotton slumped by 51% to 6.83 lakh hectares.

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Crude oil futures extended the fall below $69 per barrel on Monday, as recovering tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and OPEC+`s decision to increase production by 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August fueled expectations of higher global supply. The alliance also reiterated that future output adjustments will remain flexible, with the next policy review scheduled for 2 August. The normalization of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz further eased concerns over supply disruptions, adding to the bearish sentiment in the oil market. Reflecting the softer global trend, MCX July crude oil futures slipped below ₹6,500 per barrel, declining more than 1% during the session.

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Base metals stayed supported today as overall sentiments were mixed. MCX Copper futures for July are trading at Rs 1286.05 per kg, up 0.10% on the day. The metal fell near Rs 1281 per kg in intraday moves. MCX Aluminum futures moved up 0.70% to trade at Rs 332.55 per kg. MCX Zinc futures are up 0.56% at Rs 368.70 per kg. MCX Lead futures slipped 0.20% to trade at Rs 198.75 per kg. MCX Nickel futures 0.08% to trade at Rs 1572.50 per kg.

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Domestic electricity futures continued to soften, adding to recent losses as monsoon spread around the nation and electricity demand looked set to moderate. The MCX ELECDMBL futures for July 2026 fell under Rs 4200 per MWH in intraday moves and currently trade Rs 4265 per MWH, down 1.61% on the day. The counter has dipped near two and half month low. India`s peak power consumption has started, reducing the demand for air conditioning. The open interest has edged up modestly. The Southwest Monsoon picked up pace in last week of June onwards and has covered many areas in northwest India.

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Seasonally and price-adjusted new factory orders in Germany increased by 1.9% in May compared to the previous month, the country`s Federal Statistical Office Destatis revealed in a report published on Monday.

Domestic orders rose by 1.3% compared to April, while foreign orders climbed by 2.2%. New orders of intermediate goods increased by 1.4%, while consumer goods orders jumped by 2.4%, and orders of capital goods were up by 2.2%.

On an annual basis, calendar-adjusted new factory orders surged 6.2% in May.

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India Meteorological Department or IMD has stated in a latest update yesterday that a depression has formed over northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas of North Odisha-West Bengal coasts. It noted that heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places with isolated extremely heavy rainfall likely over Chhattisgarh, Madhya Maharashtra on 05th & 06th July; Odisha on 05th July; Konkan & Goa, Gujarat Region during 05th-07th; Saurashtra & Kutch on 05th July, 2026. IMD expects further progress in rainfall as conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some more parts of North Arabian Sea, Gujarat, remaining parts of Haryana & Punjab, and some more parts of Rajasthan during next 3 days.

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The AUD/USD is pausing around two-week high as markets eyed weak inflation trends in Australia. The TD Securities-Melbourne Institute (TD-MI) Inflation Gauge for Australia saw a year-on-year reading of 3.9% in June, down from 4.4% in May. This marks a sharp slide in the pace of price increases. The TD-MI Inflation Gauge is a monthly indicator that tracks the price movements of a basket of goods and services, providing an early read on consumer inflation trends. The inflation gauge fell 0.4% month on month in June, extending the pace of drop from a 0.3% fall in the previous reading. AUD/USD futures are quoting at 0.6920.

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Quotes as on 2 July 2026, weekly change in percent

WHEAT US - HRW (Gulf) $284, 0.35, EU France Grade 1 (Rouen) $236, -1.66

MAIZE (CORN) US - 3YC (Gulf) $233, 3.55%, Brazil 214, 1.42

BARLEY EU - France (Rouen) $226, -2.58

SOYABEANS US - No.2 (Gulf) $456, 0.66, Brazil (Paranagua) $458, 2.46

RICE Thailand 5% Broken $469, -2.50

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Global markets are set for another eventful week as investors assess the outlook for interest rates, inflation and economic growth across major economies. The release of the Federal Reserve`s meeting minutes, the European Central Bank`s policy accounts, key inflation data from Asia, and central bank decisions in New Zealand and Malaysia will dominate attention. Meanwhile, developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations and OPEC`s production meeting are expected to influence energy markets and overall investor sentiment. Markets will closely watch the next round of U.S.-Iran talks scheduled for July 11, aimed at advancing the ceasefire framework and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, OPEC`s production meeting and improving tanker flows through the Strait will remain key drivers of global energy prices and broader market sentiment.

America: The spotlight will be on the Federal Reserve`s June meeting minutes as investors seek clues on the timing of future rate moves. Key U.S. releases include the ISM Services PMI, existing home sales, trade balance, wholesale inventories and consumer credit. Canada will publish employment, trade and business sentiment data, while Mexico and Brazil release inflation figures.

Europe: Markets will focus on the ECB`s June meeting accounts after its recent rate hike. Key data include Euro Area retail sales, Germany`s industrial production, factory orders and trade balance, France`s trade data, Italy`s industrial production, and the Bank of England`s Financial Stability Report. Russia`s inflation and Poland`s policy decision will also be monitored.

Asia-Pacific: China`s inflation figures, Japan`s household spending, producer prices, current account and machine tool orders headline the regional calendar. Australia will release its monthly inflation gauge and housing data, while inflation readings from Thailand, the Philippines and Taiwan will also be in focus. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Bank Negara Malaysia are set to announce their latest monetary policy decisions.

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OPEC+ has agreed to raise crude oil production by 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August 2026, extending its gradual unwinding of the voluntary production cuts introduced in 2023. The decision was reached during a virtual meeting of seven participating members'Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, as the group assessed global oil market conditions and the demand outlook. The alliance emphasized that the production increase is part of its broader strategy to restore supply in a measured and cautious manner while safeguarding market stability. OPEC+ reiterated that the pace of the output restoration remains fully flexible and can be accelerated, paused or even reversed should market conditions deteriorate or volatility re-emerge. This approach reflects the group`s commitment to balancing global supply with demand while responding swiftly to changing economic and geopolitical developments. The participating countries also reaffirmed their commitment to full compliance with the Declaration of Cooperation and pledged to compensate for any excess production recorded since January 2024. The group noted that the gradual production increase provides an opportunity for members to accelerate their compensation plans while maintaining overall discipline in output targets. Looking ahead, OPEC+ will continue to review oil market conditions, production conformity and compensation efforts through its monthly meetings. The next gathering of the participating countries is scheduled for 2 August 2026, when policymakers will reassess market fundamentals and determine the appropriate course for future production levels.

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LME Copper inventories dipped further in last session. Inventories fell by 3450 tonnes to 318900 tonnes on Friday, testing around four-month low.

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Australia's Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge fell 0.4% MoM in June 2026, following a 0.3% decline in May, marking its second consecutive monthly decrease and indicating easing price pressures. Meanwhile, annual inflation slowed to 4.0% in May from 4.2% in April, though it remained above the central bank's 2'3% target range, with underlying inflation expected to strengthen in the June quarter.

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Total automobile retail sales in India grew by 21.83 per cent year-on-year at 25,57,234 units in June, with the industry remaining cautiously optimistic going forward hoping for monsoon to make up for the deficit, Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations said on Monday. In June last year total automobile retail sales in India stood at 20,98,996 units, Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) said in a statement. Passenger vehicles (PV) retail sales were at 4,10,853 units last month as compared to 3,19,412 units in June 2025, a growth of 28.63 per cent, it added.

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Copper futures are seen supported at $6.21 per pound on Monday morning in Asia tracing pull back in dollar following weaker than expected jobs data. Besides, Asian stock markets are trading mostly higher on Monday, following broadly positive cues from European markets and lack of cues from Wall Street on Friday, on easing global inflationary pressures amid easing Middle East tensions and hopes the US Fed will not tighten its monetary policy for now. The red metal is trading near historic highs, driven by tight global mine supplies and surging structural demand from renewable energy systems.

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COMEX gold and silver futures stay upbeat on Monday morning in Asia, adding to recent streak of gains as dollar stays subdued after softer than expected US data last weekend. Data released last week showed US nonfarm payrolls increased by just 57,000 in June, the smallest gain in four months and well below forecasts of 110,000, reducing bets on a September rate hike. The dollar index is quoting well below 101 mark, supporting gains in the precious metals. Meanwhile, oil and gas tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz showed signs of normalizing on Sunday, which is expected to ease inflationary concerns. Currently, the yellow metal is quoting at around one and half week high at $4177.40 an ounce, Silver futures are also holding at $62.39 per ounce.

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Baker Hughes reported the US oil rig count rose to 445 for the week ending July 2, up five from 440, marking a modest uptick reported Friday while remaining well below the 2019 peak of 800 rigs and the 2023 average of 620. The total US active oil rig count increased by 5 to reach 445. The overall U.S. drilling rig count'which includes 126 gas rigs and 9 miscellaneous rigs'rose by 7 to a total of 580.

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